21 October 2016

NO BATTLEGROUND REPORT for 20 October, 2016 - T-minus 19 days (Clinton 323 / Trump 197 / Tossup 18)

I am busy preparing the first of 4 major ELECTORAL LANDSCAPEs - the first of which, including data from 10/20 and 10/21, will be published on Saturday. These things take an enormous amount of time and energy. So, no battleground report for 10/20 - it's not necessary.

As an example, here is my final ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE (no. 8), from 2012.

On 10/20, UPI/CVOTER published it's polls from all 50 states plus DC. There are three glaring problems with these polls:

-extremely small survey groups
-internet only
-two-way matchups only, which makes no sense, especially in key states where Johnson and/or McMullin really are playing a major role.

There was one battleground poll out of Arizona, from Republican pollster Data Orbital, showing a 42/42 tie in the three-way statistic, so officially, in the three-way, Arizona would be a tossup state, but including the two-way statistics as well, is simply in the battlegrounds.

Nonetheless, I log ALL of the statistics and the UPI polls will be in the ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE on Saturday. 

The electoral prognosis remains unchanged at current: Clinton 326 / Trump 194 / Tossup 18 - but this may change at the weekend.  Wait and see.


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