30 October 2016

Current early voting stats from NEVADA, with a comparison to 2012

I am following the Nevada early voting stats as provided by that state's SOS, now with two sets of data.

The first week of early voting is complete and here:

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

(That link may or may not go defunct)

Here a screenshot:



But the data is not complete. Here is the starting document for week 2 of early voting in NV:

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555

That link is surely going to go defunct, so here is a screenshot:




So, combining the two statistics, to-date, 425,657 early ballots have been cast in NV. That is 41.94% of the 1,014,918 votes that were cast for President in Nevada in 2012.

Of those early ballots, 292,825 (68.79%) come from Clark County and 78,853 (18.53%), so the remaining 12.68% of all early votes cast come from the other 15 counties combined. This includes ballots cast in person and ballots received per mail.

Let's look at Clark County (both weeks combined, to-date):

292,825 total, D = 138,743 (47.38%) / R = 95,617 (32.65%) / other = 58,465 (19.97%), margin = D +43,126 (+14.73)

And in Washoe County (a swing county)

78,853 total, D = 33,244 (42.16%) / R = 30,737 (38.98%) / other = 14,872 (18.86%), margin = D +2,507 (+3.18)

And overall, in the entire state:

425,657 total, D = 186,358 (43.78%) / R = 155,008 (36.42%) / other = 84,291 (19.80%), margin = D +31,350 (+7.36)

Ok, there is more to these statistics than meet the eye. First, we see that the real generator of a D margin in early voting comes specifically out of Las Vegas (Clark County). That the Ds are also slightly leading in Washoe County when it comes to early voting is somewhat of a miracle. Please notice that in the 15 other counties, the Rs lead in early voting, both in in-person voting and in absentee/mail-in ballots. In fact, in Washoe County, the Rs are also ahead in the latter category.


I just want to contrast this point in time with the end-voting statistic out of Nevada from 2012:

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2666

Again, a screenshot:




In 2012, when all was said and done, 705,051 early votes were cast in NV, upwards of 70% of all the votes cast for President in that year in this state.  486,569 of those early votes came from Clark County (69.01%). And Washoe County, with 132,634 early votes cast, accounted for 18.81% of all early ballots. The remaining 12.81% of early ballots came from the rest of the state.

In Clark County 2012, in the early voting it was:

486,569 total, D = 231,623 (47.60%) / R = 160,915 (33.07%) / other = 94,031 (19.33%), margin = D +70,708 (+14.53)

And in Washoe County 2012 (a swing county):

132,634 total, D = 52,862 (39.86%) / R = 53,742 (40.52%) / other = 26,030 (19.62%), margin = R +880 (+0.66)

And overall, in the entire state, Nevada 2012 early vote:

705,051 total, D = 308,828 (43.80%) / R = 260,601 (36.96%) / other = 135,622 (19.24%), margin = D +48,227 (+6.84)


Do those statistics look familiar to you? 
I am now going to place them next to each other.

Clark County 2016 to-date:
292,825 total, D = 138,743 (47.38%) / R = 95,617 (32.65%) / other = 58,465 (19.97%), margin = D +43,126 (+14.73)
In Clark County 2012, early voting end-statistic:
486,569 total, D = 231,623 (47.60%) / R = 160,915 (33.07%) / other = 94,031 (19.33%), margin = D +70,708 (+14.53)


Washoe County 2016 to-date:
78,853 total, D = 33,244 (42.16%) / R = 30,737 (38.98%) / other = 14,872 (18.86%), margin = D +2,507 (+3.18)
Washoe County 2012 early voting end-statistic:
132,634 total, D = 52,862 (39.86%) / R = 53,742 (40.52%) / other = 26,030 (19.62%), margin = R +880 (+0.66)

Nevada, statewide, to-date:
425,657 total, D = 186,358 (43.78%) / R = 155,008 (36.42%) / other = 84,291 (19.80%), margin = D +31,350 (+7.36)
Nevada statewide 2012 early voting end-statistic:
705,051 total, D = 308,828 (43.80%) / R = 260,601 (36.96%) / other = 135,622 (19.24%), margin = D +48,227 (+6.84)


Those statistics are EERILY close to each other. Where it took the Democrats two weeks to get to, they have already done in 1 week and 1 day, in terms of percentages and margins. However, there could be a down-side to this.  Look at the screenshot from 2012: about 15,000 more early voter ballots were cast in Clark County in week two over week one, so if the early voting drops off in this dreadnaught county, this statistic could change some. But for now, the D-toplines and margins in early voting and in the state as a whole are pretty much identical to the end-statistic from 2012.

And just as a side-note, President Obama won Nevada in 2012 with a +6.68% margin, very close to the early voting D-to-R margins we saw statewide in 2012 and are seeing right now. He won in spite of polling showing a race closer than it actually was.

So, those are the current stats.

-Stat

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