26 October 2016

Battleground/National Report, 25 October, 2016 - T-minus 14 days (Clinton 323 / Trump 180 / Tossup 35)

Tuesday, October 25th, 2016, was exactly 14 days before the General Election on November 8, 2016. T-minus two weeks....

Complete polling results for all states for 2016 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/25/2016 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

So, my methodology for doing averages in this wild-and-wooly-sometimes-3-way election was explained in the first Battleground Report, from 11 October, 2016.

The Battleground table is pretty darned detailed. The LEGEND for said table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the Battleground tab.

Survey Monkey also did a 50 state series (and really, all 50 states plus DC), so once again, polling data for every single state came through on 10/25. The survey size for the entire poll was almost 50,000, but SM did not give exact stats for each state. Therefore, I listed the entire survey group and MOE in parentheses. Also, the website appears to be non-permanent, so I screenshotted the results and linked to those graphics using the date, survey size and MoE in order to save space. This is why the Survey Monkey poll entries have four pieces of data that are hyperlinked.

Also, Remington Research (R) put out a number of battleground polls, the data for some of which is contrary to what we have seen from other pollsters. More about this later.

A sum total of 63 polls came in on 10/25.

Interestingly enough, after all of this fresh new polling, the battlegrounds and the tossups have not changed a bit, but Iowa and Ohio switched sides:




Statistically, Ohio is now at Clinton +0.35 and Iowa is at Trump +0.39, which means that at this point in time, it's anyone's guess and they are both in the tossups, only staring at each other from opposite sides of the looking glass.So, nothing has changed with the projected electoral map, it remains at:




10/25 can also be called "Florida-Nevada-North Carolina day", for each of those states received a number of new polls. Those are three hotly contested battlegrounds where Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is ahead on the aggregate. I want to explore all three states.

In FLORIDA, here is a screenshot of polling for the entire month to date:



So far in October, 22 Florida polls have been released, for a total of 34 matchups, of which Hillary Clinton has won 29, Donald Trump has won 3 and there have been 2 ties. The top 7 polls, from SUSA down to UPI/Cvoter, are the basis for the calculations for 10/25, making for an aggregate of Clinton +3.13 in the two way calculations and an aggregate of Clinton +2.00 in the three-way calculations, the mean value of which is: Clinton +2.56, a lean but resilient lead. In fact, it increased just incrementally over 10/24. Now, one could try to weight each individual poll based on past performance, etc.... but my long-time experience is to simply accept all polls from accredited pollsters, including the perceived highballers and the lowballers, and rely on the aggregate. So, from 10/24 to 10/25, one poll fell out of the calculations and three joined the calculations, but the margin barely moved. Now, that is what you call: STABILITY.

BTW, the most recent poll, the SUSA poll, shows some very weird internals....

Let's go back in time to 2012 and look at how the numbers were in Florida. Here is a screenshot of the October numbers:




And on this corresponding day in 2012, 23 October, 2012 (14 days before the GE), the Florida aggregate was: Romney +0.44. This means that Hillary Clinton is running exactly 3 points ahead of where President Obama was in Florida 14 days before his re-election.

In NEVADA, Clinton's margin has somewhat softened, mostly due to a Remington Research poll that goes against the grain of all the other polls. Here a screenshot of NV:





The top six polls are the basis for the calculations for 10/25, which makes for Clinton +3.33 (two-way), Clinton +3.75 (three-way) and an aggregate of Clinton +3.54.  Flashing back to this juncture in 2012, the aggregate on 10/23/2012 was: Obama +5.20. Clinton is currently running 1.66 points worse in NV than Obama did back then. As was the case in Florida and will also be the case in North Carolina, the Remington Research (R) poll shows Trump ahead. Well, ok, but if you look into the internals of the Remington polls, they often show him getting over 20% of the black vote and over 35% of the Latino vote - flying in the face of all other national and most all other state data. Their polling groups are also considerably older - a group that tends to be more conservative.  But as I wrote earlier, I log all polls from accredited pollsters and let history show who was accurate and who was not!

NORTH CAROLINA is one of the biggest surprises of 2016 for me, because it was just such a rock-solid RED state just twelve years ago, Obama just barely pulled it over the line in 2008 and Romney only recaptured it by just over 2 points and yet, Hillary Clinton is doing considerably better in the Tarheel State than I bet anyone thought would be the case. Here is a screenshot of the month of October till now:




The top 9 polls are the basis for the calculations for 10/25 - usually I do not include a repeater, but the 10/18 SM poll was for WAPO and the most current one was a standalone, so it counts. This results in Clinton +5.66 (2-way) and Clinton +2.83 (3-way), making for an aggregate of Clinton +4.25. Let's compare that back to 2012, where at this juncture in the race, the aggregate was: Romney +2.00, a statistic that held pretty firm for Gov. Romney all the way to election day. This also means that Hillary Clinton is running 6.25 points better right now than Obama did in 2012.

These three key battleground state, worth a total of 50 EV, are states that Donald Trump absolutely cannot lose.

On the non-battleground side of this, an Emerson poll came in from the state of IDAHO, showing, unsurprsingly, that Trump is tromping Clinton by +29. However, Independent candidate Evan McMullin (a Mormon, from Utah) got 10% in the poll and this was part of the pollster's analysis:





Just for comparison's sake, Mitt Romney won ID-02 in 2012 by +31.0 (64.1 to 33.1) over Obama, and McCain won ID-02 in 2008 by +23.4 (60.5 to 37.1) over Obama. So, ID-02 should in no way be a competitive congressional district. And no one is even thinking that Idaho is going to be remotely competitive. It is not, although Trump is likely to win the state with a decidedly lesser margin than his GOP predecessors.

Nationally:




Six new polls in the mix of a total of 15 going back a week, and Clinton is at an aggregate of +6.37. Clinton is now leading in ALL national polling.


The tracking list:

12 October 2016, Clinton +5.52, -0.21
13 October 2016, Clinton +6.61, +1.08*
14 October 2016, Clinton +6.75, +0.14
15 October 2016 - no battleground report posted
16 October 2016, Clinton +6,44, -0.31
17 October, 2016, Clinton +7.35, +0.92*
18 October, 2016, Clinton +6.91, -0.45
19 October 2016, Clinton +6.64, -0.27
20 October 2016 - no battleground report posted
21 October 2016, Clinton +6.74, +0.10
23 October 2016, Clinton +6.02, -0.72
24 October 2016, Clinton +6.25, +0.23
25 October 2016, Clinton +6.37, +0.23
*Due to rounding, the difference is off by 0.01

On this corresponding day in 2012, the national aggregate was: Romney +0.06, so Clinton is currently 6.43 points ahead of where Obama was four years ago.



And some end-statistics: I first started collecting 2016 presidential polls at the beginning of October 2013 and since then I have logged 4,361 matchups from 2,246 individual polls. You can find the breakdown to this stuff at the EXCEL table, in the tab that says "poll totals".

For past reference, here is the ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE from 16 days before the GE 2012, from 10/23/2012.  And here is also the corresponding report from 10/21/2008.

One more thing: early voting has begun and there are lots of stats coming out of many states. Soon, I will be collating that data as well.





-Stat


No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.