25 October 2016

Battleground/National Report, 24 October, 2016 - T-minus 15 days (Clinton 323 / Trump 180 / Tossup 35)

Monday, October 24th, 2016, was exactly 15 days before the General Election on November 8, 2016. Just a little more than two weeks to go... 

Complete polling results for all states for 2016 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/24/2016 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

So, my methodology for doing averages in this wild-and-wooly-sometimes-3-way election was explained in the first Battleground Report, from 11 October, 2016.

The Battleground table is pretty darned detailed. The LEGEND for said table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the Battleground tab.

Because of the IPSOS/REUTERS 50 series, most all of the states were polled, which just substituted on IPSOS value for another. However, the subtle changes in some margins were enough to pull Ohio just over the 0.00 mark back to Clinton's side (as a pure tossup) and for the first time, AZ, at just +0.80 for Trump, is in the tossups, now worth 35 EV (or roughly the EV pull from TX):

Really not much to say - kind of like a maintenance day in the world of poll watching.

With that in mind, the EV projection map currently looks like this:

The main thing is: Clinton's topline has not budged and all three of the tossups could just as easily go for her as they could go for Trump. Once you get out of the battleground zone, on both side, the next margins up the ladder are really quite outside of the battlegrounds. This race is much more stable than the press would like to admit, because that would be, well, boring....


The three pollsters that had been showing leads for Trump (Rasmussen, IBD/Tipp and Dornsife) are not showing those leads anymore...

The tracking list:

12 October 2016, Clinton +5.52, -0.21
13 October 2016, Clinton +6.61, +1.08*

14 October 2016, Clinton +6.75, +0.14
15 October 2016 - no battleground report posted
16 October 2016, Clinton +6,44, -0.31
17 October, 2016, Clinton +7.35, +0.92*
18 October, 2016, Clinton +6.91, -0.45
19 October 2016, Clinton +6.64, -0.27
20 October 2016 - no battleground report posted
21 October 2016, Clinton +6.74, +0.10
23 October 2016, Clinton +6.02, -0.72
24 October 2016, Clinton +6.25, +0.23
*Due to rounding, the difference is off by 0.01

On this corresponding day in 2012, the national aggregate was: Romney +0.06, so Clinton is currently 6.31 points ahead of where Obama was four years ago.

And some end-statistics: I first started collecting 2016 presidential polls at the beginning of October 2013 and since then I have logged 4,298 matchups from 2,175 individual polls. You can find the breakdown to this stuff at the EXCEL table, in the tab that says "poll totals".

For past reference, here is the ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE from 16 days before the GE 2012, from 10/22/2012.  And here is also the corresponding report from 10/20/2008.

One more thing: early voting has begun and there are lots of stats coming out of many states. Soon, I will be collating that data as well.


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