24 October 2016

Battleground/National Report, 23 October, 2016 - T-minus 16 days (Clinton 323 / Trump 191 / Tossup 24)

Sunday, October 23rd, 2016, was exactly 16 days before the General Election on November 8, 2016. Just a little more than two weeks to go... 

My first ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE, which covered polls up to end of day 10/21/2016, is HERE to read.

No BATTLEGROUND REPORT was published for 10/22/2016, as only one state poll came in. It is reflected, however, in this report.

Complete polling results for all states for 2016 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/23/2016 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

So, my methodology for doing averages in this wild-and-wooly-sometimes-3-way election was explained in the first Battleground Report, from 11 October, 2016.

The Battleground table is pretty darned detailed. The LEGEND for said table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the Battleground tab.

Polls were published for the following states on 10/21-10/21: FL (1), IA (1), MI (1), OH (1), OK (1) and TX (1).

That's just a smattering of polls, but enough, based on the results, to put Iowa into the tossups next to Ohio, for a total of 24 tossup EV:

This is not a huge surprise as both states were hovering around the tossup zone within the battlegrounds, and just one poll with opposing results can move the statistic. The other states that were polled are considered relatively safe states and in the case of Oklahoma, very safe. So, there is just not a whole lot to say right now. The outlook has not really changed much since the big ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE from 10/21:

That's the EV map if you keep the tossups at an aggregate of +1.00 or less.

If you move the tossup calculation to +2.00 or less, then the map looks like this:

Either way, Hillary Clinton's topline EV of 323 does not move. It only gets worse for Trump.

Wait and see what polling this week brings. I am watchful of all polling, but what comes out of AZ and also UT.


The tracking list:

12 October 2016, Clinton +5.52, -0.21
13 October 2016, Clinton +6.61, +1.08*

14 October 2016, Clinton +6.75, +0.14
15 October 2016 - no battleground report posted
16 October 2016, Clinton +6,44, -0.31
17 October, 2016, Clinton +7.35, +0.92*
18 October, 2016, Clinton +6.91, -0.45
19 October 2016, Clinton +6.64, -0.27
20 October 2016 - no battleground report posted
21 October 2016, Clinton +6.74, +0.10
23 October 2016, Clinton +6.02, -0.72
*Due to rounding, the difference is off by 0.01

That would seem like a precipitous national average drop for Clinton, but a number of polls from 10/16-10/14 fell out of the statistic. As new premium national polls come in this week, this number is very, very likely to rise to +7 on the aggregate or more.

On this corresponding day in 2012, the national aggregate was: Romney +0.19, so Clinton is currently 6.21 points ahead of where Obama was four years ago.

And some end-statistics: I first started collecting 2016 presidential polls at the beginning of October 2013 and since then I have logged 4,247 matchups from 2,124 individual polls. You can find the breakdown to this stuff at the EXCEL table, in the tab that says "poll totals".

For past reference, here is the BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 16 days before the GE 2012, from 10/21/2012. It was a "Deluxe Version BATTLEGROUND REPORT"  And here is also the corresponding report from 10/19/2008, which was actually not a battleground report, but rather, a rundown on a couple of things.

One more thing: early voting has begun and there are lots of stats coming out of many states. Soon, I will be collating that data as well.


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