19 October 2016

Battleground/National Report, 18 October, 2016 - T-minus 21 days (Clinton 323 / Trump 197 / Tossup 18)

Tuesday, October 18th, 2016, was exactly 21 days before the General Election on November 8, 2016. Just a little more than three weeks to go...

Complete polling results for all states for 2016 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/18/2016 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

So, my methodology for doing averages in this wild-and-wooly-sometimes-3-way election was explained in yesterday's starting Battleground Report, from 11 October, 2016.

The Battleground table is pretty darned detailed. The LEGEND for said table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the Battleground tab.

Polls were published for the following states on 10/18: AZ (1), CO (1), FL (2), GA (1), IN (1), MA (1), MI (1), NH (1), NM (1), NV (2), NC (2), OH (1), OR (1), PA (1), TX (2), VA (1), WI (1).

A flurry of polls from Ohio showing movement toward Donald Trump moved the Ohio aggregate down to Clinton +0.63, making Ohio an absolute tossup. GA also moved into the battlegrounds, thus increasing the category from 6 to 7 states:

WAPO put out polls from 15 states, with double results. Since the API results from 10/11 just fell out of the 7-day strict time-frame, and since the API results are only two-way results with some extreme margins in both directions, the absence of API polls (internet only) from the aggregate caused some totals to jump a bit, for instance, in Georgia.

Overall, we see movement for Clinton in PA, NH, CO, NM and VA, but the largest movement for her is in NC, which is now at an aggregate of Clinton +4.04, starting to near the edge of the battlegrounds. And Virginia is now at an aggregate of Clinton +10.25, obviously a lost cause for the Trump campaign. There is also verifiable movement toward Clinton in AZ,  now at an aggregate of +1.25 for Trump and go just as well land in the tossups next to Ohio. Wait and see. There was movement toward Trump in FL, NV and WI - some of that due just to the bookkeeping involved with the 7-day time-frame. Perhaps the most interesting result of the WAPO polls were the two margins FOR Clinton in Georgia, something we haven't seen in a while. Now, every pollster can have outliers and perhaps this is also one, but the fact that it is so close in GA is in and of itself a bad sign for the Trump campaign and on top of that, GA has the 50% rule, so the statistical possibility that GA will have a runoff election at the beginning of December continues to rise.

I won't do this very often, but the difference in the battleground table between this year and 2012 is so stark, I want to point it out:

You can see that the numbers at exactly this juncture in 2012 were far more competitive. At this point in time 4 years ago, ROMNEY was barely leading in VA, NC and FL, it was literally a virtual tie nationally and VA, CO, NH and NV were absolute tossups. In fact, the only state were Obama was doing better than Clinton is doing right now was: OH.

The movement of Ohio into the pure tossups alters the electoral map and predictions:

 Were Clinton to win nationally, as every single major pollster is now predicting, and yet, Trump were to win Ohio (entirely possible), the Ohio would lose it's coveted status as bellwether.


In what can be described as a VERY rare event, both the 2-way and the 3-way aggregates are identical to each other, at +6.91 for Clinton, a slight down-tick from the day before.

The tracking list:

12 October 2016, Clinton +5.52, -0.21
13 October 2016, Clinton +6.61, +1.08*
14 October 2016, Clinton +6.75, +0.14
15 October 2016 - no battleground report posted
16 October 2016, Clinton +6,44, -0.31
17 October, 2016, Clinton +7.35, +0.92*
18 October, 2016, Clinton +6.91, -0.45
*Due to rounding, the difference is off by 0.01

Clinton's +6.91 is 6.82 points richer than the national average from this juncture in 2012, where it was: Obama +0.09.

And some end-statistics: I first started collecting 2016 presidential polls at the beginning of October 2013 and since then I have logged 4,127 matchups from 2,014 individual polls. You can find the breakdown to this stuff at the EXCEL table, in the tab that says "poll totals".

For past reference, here is the BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 22 days before the GE 2012, from 10/16/2012. There was no corresponding report for 10/14/2008: I was preparing my form of electoral landscape, which I called "poll divergence" at that time.


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