17 October 2016

Battleground/National Report, 16 October, 2016 - T-minus 23 days (Clinton 344 / Trump 194)

Sunday, October 16th, 2016, was exactly 23 days before the General Election on November 8, 2016. Just a little more than three weeks to go...

Complete polling results for all states for 2016 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 10/16/2016 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.


So, my methodology for doing averages in this wild-and-wooly-sometimes-3-way election was explained in yesterday's starting Battleground Report, from 11 October, 2016.

The Battleground table is pretty darned detailed. The LEGEND for said table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the Battleground tab.

THERE WAS NO BATTLEGROUND REPORT FOR Saturday, 10/15/2016 as no state polls came in and only the LAT (rolling tracking poll) came in on the national level.

On 10/16, polls for 4 major states came in, resulting in Colorado returning to the battleground zone, but some of that is just a result of housekeeping, as some polls suddenly fell out of the 7-day time-window. That being said, there are now 8 states in the battlegrounds:






So, first to Colorado (Clinton +3.88):




All Colorado 10 October fell out of the statistic. But what IS interesting is that the newest poll from Gravis (R), was commissioned by Breitbart - a hard-right leaning publication, where Steve Bannon, now Donald Trump's campaign manager, was the head of Breitbart. So, a +5 from Gravis (R) is indeed a major sign that Clinton really is well ahead in Colorado. And going back in history, on 14 October, 2012, also 23 days before that election, Gravis (R) also put out a Colorado poll showing Obama +2.4 over Romney. What is holding this current statistic down is the disparity in the two-way polling between the two organizations that do 50-state polling every week: IPSOS and UPI.  When more Colorado polls come in after Debate no. 3, we will have a clearer picture. At this juncture in 2012, the Colorado aggregate was: Obama +0.15.

Speaking of Gravis (R), it also put out a poll from Florida, but this is really quite fascinating:



It doesn't happen very often that a Republican and a Democratic pollster come out with the same toplines and the same margins in the same state in practically the same time-frame. In a 3-way, both Gravis (R) and PPP (D) show Clinton 46 / Trump 42, Clinton +4. Again, in light of the electoral history of this state, that is a pretty big margin. This has moved Clinton's aggregate to +3.91 at current.  At this juncture in 2012, the Florida aggregate was: Romney +1.16.


In Nevada, 2 polls were released on Sunday:


This means that three-way aggregate here is Clinton +4, the 2-way aggregate is Clinton +3,85, the mean aggregate being Clinton +3.92, practically identical to her Florida aggregate.   At this juncture in 2012, the Nevada aggregate was: Obama +2.23.

In Virginia (aggregate: Clinton +7.63), it is over-with. Trump has polled out and the CNU released yesterday shows that he is now hopelessly behind:




The polling results out of Virginia are historic in that we have not seen such impressive numbers for a Democrat in this state since 1964 - where the state was barely polled. The area squared off in red is the current time frame for the polling aggregate, but compare yesterday's CNU poll, showing Clinton +15, with the CNU poll released on 26.09, showing Clinton +6 in a three-way and +10 in the two-way (aggregate: +8).  Please remember that Emerson College, which only shows Clinton +3, does landline-only polls, a factor to discuss when the final results are in and we can compare the pollsters predictions with the actual results.  Barring any jarring change in the landscape in Virginia, I probably won't be reporting any more from the Old Dominion. A +15 lead in a state that was once a battleground state is practically impossible for the losing side to turn around.   At this juncture in 2012, the Virginia aggregate was: Obama +0.70. Right now, Clinton's aggregate is 7 full points ahead of where Obama was four years ago and is also higher than any aggregate he ever had in 2008.

With these things in mind, the electoral outlook remains unchanged since I started this battleground series:








Nationally:





4 new polls came in on 16 October, with various results, the three major national polls showing Clinton ahead and the outlier LAT rolling poll showing Trump ahead. The NBC/WSJ and the LAT poll margins are 10.6 points away from each other, something that is actually quite impossible. One of those two polls is terribly wrong. That may be a matter of opinion at this time, but after the election, it will be a matter of verifiable fact.  One poll less is in the calculations as the polls from October 9 fell out of the statistic and her national mean ticked slightly downward to Clinton +6.44.


The tracking list:

12 October 2016, Clinton +5.52, -0.21
13 October 2016, Clinton +6.61, +1.08*
14 October 2016, Clinton +6.75, +0.14
15 October 2016 - no battleground report posted
16 October 2016, Clinton +6,44, -0.31

*Due to rounding, what looks like it should be +1.09 is truly +1.08.

And some end-statistics: I first started collecting 2016 presidential polls at the beginning of October 2013 and since then I have logged 4,017 matchups from 1,922 individual polls. You can find the breakdown to this stuff at the EXCEL table, in the tab that says "poll totals".

For past reference, here is the BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 23 days before the GE 2012, from 10/14/2012. (That report was called "Battleground Deluxe")

And here is the BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 2008: 10/12/2008 (it was not an extensive report)


-Statistikhengst

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