09 February 2016

Special Polling Round up, Week 1, February 2016 (New Hampshire)

This is a special round up designed to deal pretty much only with New Hampshire.  Other states have been polled as well and I may mention them on periphery to this, but since today is the New Hampshire primary, let's see what the slew of polling has brought:

GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING


Let's go directly to: New Hampshire:

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 01.02.2016: Trump +26
ARG, released 01.02.2016: Trump +18
Day 1 average: Trump +21.5

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 02.02.2016: Trump +24
Adrian Gray Consulting (R), released 02.02.2016: Trump +12
Day 2 average: Trump +18

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 03.02.2016: Trump +24
Harper Polling (R), released 03.02.2016: Trump +17
Day 3 average: Trump +20.5

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 04.02.2016: Trump +21
ARG, released 04.02.2016: Trump +20
Day 4 average: Trump +20.5

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 05.02.2016: Trump +19
CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 05.02.2016: Trump +11
NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 05.02.2016: Trump +13
ARG, released 05.02.2016: Trump +21
MassInc/WBUR, released 05.02.2016: Trump +17
Suffolk University / Boston Globe, released 05.02.2016: Trump +9.4
Gravis (R) / OANN, released 05.02.2016: Trump +10
UMass Amherst / WBZ-TV / YouGov, released 05.02.2016: Trump +20
Day 5 average: Trump +15.1

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 06.02.2016: Trump +21
ARG, released 06.02.2016: Trump +21
Franklin Pierce University / RKM / Boston Herald, released 06.02.2016: Trump +16
Day 6 average: Trump +19.3

CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 07.02.2016Trump +17
UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 07.02.2016: Trump +22
ARG, released 07.02.2016: Trump +14
Monmouth University, released 07.02.2016: Trump +16
Day 7 average: Trump +17.3

ARG, released 08.02.2016: Trump +14
UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 08.02.2016: Trump +21
CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 08.02.2016: Trump +14
Emerson College, released 08.02.2016: Trump +15
Gravis (R), released 08.02.2016: Trump +11
Day 8 average: Trump +15

ARG, released 09.02.2016: Trump +21



That makes for 29 GOP nomination polls released for New Hampshire over the last 8 days. You can see the daily averages, but some of those polls were one-time-only polls and so here is how it looks when we remove all repeaters:


Adrian Gray Consulting (R), released 02.02.2016Trump +12
Harper Polling (R), released 03.02.2016Trump +17
NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 05.02.2016Trump +13
MassInc/WBUR, released 05.02.2016Trump +17
Suffolk University / Boston Globe, released 05.02.2016: Trump +9.4
UMass Amherst / WBZ-TV / YouGov, released 05.02.2016: Trump +20
Franklin Pierce University / RKM / Boston Herald, released 06.02.2016: Trump +16
Monmouth University, released 07.02.2016Trump +16
UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 08.02.2016Trump +21
CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 08.02.2016Trump +14
Emerson College, released 08.02.2016Trump +15
Gravis (R), released 08.02.2016Trump +11
ARG, released 09.02.2016Trump +21
WEEK 1 average: Trump +15.6


Notice that Trump's overall average for the entire week is very close to the average from the last day and it doesn't matter whether you calculate the ARG released on 08.02 or 09.02 (today) because the margins are identical. Trump won all 29 polls, and 28 of them with double-digit margins. He is going to win in New Hamsphire tonight, of this I am absolutely sure, and I wouldn't be surprised if it is roughly a 15 point race. What will be more interesting will be to to see who comes in 2nd: Rubio, Cruz or Kasich. ARG has been very bullish on Kasich, he has been 2nd in a number of polls.


Of the other states that were polled (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, *Iowa*, Michigan, New York and North Carolina), Trump is ahead everywhere except Arkansas, where Cruz is leading by 4 points.

For complete toplines, survey group sizes, MoEs and the like on the GOP nomination polls, look HERE.


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DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Let's go directly to: New Hampshire:

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 01.02.2016: Sanders +31
ARG, released 01.02.2016: Sanders +6
Day 1 average: Sanders +18.5

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 02.02.2016: Sanders +33

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 03.02.2016: Sanders +29

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 04.02.2016: Sanders +21
ARG, released 04.02.2016: Sanders +16
NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 04.02.2016: Sanders +20
Day 4 average: Sanders +19

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 05.02.2016: Sanders +15
CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 05.02.2016: Sanders +30
ARG, released 05.02.2016: Sanders +15
MassInc/WBUR, released 05.02.2016: Sanders +15
Suffolk University / Boston Globe, released 05.02.2016: Sanders +9
Gravis (R) / OANN, released 05.02.2016: Sanders +16
UMass Amherst / WBZ-TV / YouGov, released 05.02.2016: Sanders +23
Day 5 average: Sanders +17.6

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 06.02.2016: Sanders +14
ARG, released 06.02.2016: Sanders +12
Franklin Pierce University / RKM / Boston Herald, released 06.02.2016: Sanders +7
Day 6 average: Sanders +17.6

CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 07.02.2016: Sanders +23
UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 07.02.2016: Sanders +17
ARG, released 07.02.2016: Sanders +11
Monmouth University, released 07.02.2016: Sanders +10
Day 7 average: Sanders +15.3

ARG, released 08.02.2016: Sanders +12
UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 08.02.2016: Sanders +16
CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 08.02.2016: Sanders +26
Emerson College, released 08.02.2016: Sanders +12
Day 7 average: Sanders +16.5


ARG, released 09.02.2016: Sanders +9


That makes for 26 DEM nomination polls released for New Hampshire over the last 8 days. Sanders easily won all 26 polls, and 24 of them are with double-digit margins. Sen. Bernie Sanders is going to easily win in New Hampshire tonight.

You can see the daily averages for yourselves, and just as I did with Trump, here is how the week on the Democratic side looks when you remove all the repeaters and keep only the last poll in a rolling series:


NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 04.02.2016Sanders +20
MassInc/WBUR, released 05.02.2016Sanders +15
Suffolk University / Boston Globe, released 05.02.2016Sanders +9
Gravis (R) / OANN, released 05.02.2016Sanders +16
UMass Amherst / WBZ-TV / YouGov, released 05.02.2016Sanders +23
Franklin Pierce University / RKM / Boston Herald, released 06.02.2016Sanders +7
Monmouth University, released 07.02.2016Sanders +10
UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 08.02.2016Sanders +16
CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 08.02.2016Sanders +26
Emerson College, released 08.02.2016Sanders +12
ARG, released 09.02.2016: Sanders +9
WEEK average: Sanders +14.8


In this case, Sanders' weekly average is just somewhat under his average for the last full day (February 8th). It is interesting to not how similar Sander's endstatistic on the DEM side is to that for Trump on the GOP side. It sure looks as if both men are running 15 point races within their respective parties.


But here comes the big contrast to Trump from the Republican side: of the other states that were polled (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, *Iowa*, Michigan, New York and North Carolina), Clinton is ahead everywhere else, and by big margins.

For complete toplines, survey group sizes, MoEs and the like on the DEM nomination polls, see HERE.

The national numbers for week 1 will come out with the large report at the end of week 2, as usual.

The long and short of it is that there are not going to be many surprises tonight. This opera has been long written, rehearsed and will now be performed.  The real game happens AFTER tonight.











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