02 February 2016

Last night in Iowa (GOP caucus totals compared to the past)

So, the preliminary data is in and Ted Cruz has won the Iowa caucuses on the GOP side:

That brings us to a current (preliminary) total of: 186,795 votes cast, with 3 candidates in double-digits.  This total is bound to rise just a tad, but right now, we are right around 187,000 actual votes cast in the 2016 IA GOP caucuses.

Let's compare this to the last 4 GOP caucuses (2012, 2008, 2000 and 1996):

2012 total: 121,590 votes cast, with 5 candidates in double digits.  This makes the turnout from 2016 a 53.6% growth-rate over 2012. That is an impressive growth rate, to say the least.

2008 total: 118,696 votes cast, with four candidates in double digits and a 5th, were rounding to have been used, actually also in double digits. That's a lean 2.4% growth rate from 2008 to 2012.

There are no totals from 2004 as then Pres. George W. Bush (43) ran unopposed for re-election and so, there were no Republican primaries in that year.

Total: 87,665 votes cast, with 3 candidates in double digits. That's a 35.4% growth rate from 2000 to 2008.  Also, between 2000 and 2016, the number of GOP votes cast in the Iowa Caucuses has more than doubled.

Total: 96,762 votes cast, with three candidates in double digits. More votes were cast in 1996 than in 2000.

So, the usual split of a number of candidates in relatively low double-digits in Iowa is a pretty long tradition in this state, being the first caucus in the nation and with a lot of people undecided until the last second, also with a larger palette of candidates to choose from that, say, some of the later primary and caucus states.

I hope that information was helpful. For the GOP, it was a historic night in terms of actual vote totals - more people came out to vote, considerably more. Good for Iowa and good for our democratic process.

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