24 February 2016

2016 polling round-up, 15-29.02.2016: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING

Quinnipiac, released 17.02.2016:
1,342 RV, MoE = +/-2.7
of them, 602 RRV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 39
Rubio 19
Cruz 18
Kasich 6
Carson 4
Bush 4

Margin: Trump +20


Morning Consult (R), released 17.02.2016:
1,763 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 662 RRV

Trump 41
Rubio 14
Cruz 12
Carson 11
Bush 7
Kasich 3

Margin: Trump +20


Suffolk, released 17.02.2016:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 358 RLV

Trump 35
Cruz 20
Rubio 17
Kasich 7
Bush 6
Carson 4

Margin: Trump +20


NBC/WSJ, released 17.02.2016:
800 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 400 RLV

Cruz 28
Trump 26
Rubio 17
Kasich 11
Carson 10
Bush 4

Margin: Cruz +2

CBS News, released 18.02.2016:
2,007 Adults
of them, 581 RLV

Trump 35
Cruz 18
Rubio 12
Kasich 11
Carson 6
Bush 4

Margin: Trump +17

YouGov / The Economist, released 18.02.2016:
2,000 Adult, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 472 RLV, MoE = unknown

Trump 39
Cruz 19
Rubio 16
Kasich 11
Carson 7
Bush 6

Margin: Trump +20

IPSOS/Reuters, released 18.02.2016:
1,473 Adults, MoE = +/-2.9
of them, 579 RRV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 40
Cruz 17
Rubio 11
Carson 10
Kasich 9
Bush 9

Margin: Trump +23

Fox News Poll, released 18.02.2016:
1,031 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 404 RLV

Trump 36
Cruz 19
Rubio 19
Bush 9
Carson 9
Kasich 8

Margin: Trump +17

Ipsos/Reuters, released 19.02.2016:
1,213 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 476 RRV

Trump 40
Cruz 17
Rubio 11
Carson 10
Bush 9
Kasich 9

Margin: Trump +23

NBC/Survey Monkey, released 23.02.2016:
11,662 Adults, MoE = +/-1.0
of them, 3,368 RRV, MoE = less than +/-1.5

Trump 36
Cruz 19
Rubio 16
Carson 8
Kasich 8
(Bush 4)

Margin: Trump +17

Rasmussen, released 23.02.2016:
697 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 36
Rubio 21
Cruz 17
Kasich 12
Carson 8

Margin: Trump +15

RMU (Robert Morris University), released 24.02.2016 (taken 11-15.02.2016):
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 252 RLV, MoE = +/-7.0

Trump 37
Cruz 19
Rubio 14
Carson 13
Bush 6
Kasich 4

Margin: Trump +18



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GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING


Arizona: 

MBQF Consulting (R), released 23.02.2016:
736 RLV, MoE = +/-3.61

Trump 35
Rubio 23
Cruz 14
Kasich 7

Margin: Trump +12


Georgia:

Landmark Communications /Rosetta Stone / WSB TV, released 22.02.2016:
500 RLV, MoE = +/-4.5

Trump 32
Rubio 23
Cruz 19
Kasich 8
Carson 8

Margin: Trump +9

Opinion Savvy / FOX 5 Atlanta, released 23.02.2016:
745 RLV, MoE = +/-3.6

Trump 34
Rubio 22
Cruz 20
Kasich 9
Carson 8

Margin: Trump +12



Illinois:

SIU: Simon Poll, released 22.02.2016:
691 LV, MoE = +/-3.7

Trump 28
Cruz 15
Rubio 14
Kasich 13
Bush 8
Carson 6

Margin: Trump +13


Massachusetts:

Emerson College, released 22.02.2016:
289 RLV, MoE = +/-5.7

Trump 50
Rubio 16
Kasich 13
Cruz 10
Carson 2

Margin: Trump +34

Michigan:

Mitchell Research (R) / Fox News Detroit, released 18.02.2016:
394 RLV, MoE = +/-4.94

Trump 41
Cruz 11
Kasich 11
Rubio 10
Carson 7
Bush 5

Margin: Trump +10


Glengariff / Detroit News, released 19.02.2016:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 25
Cruz 15
Rubio 12
Kasich 11
Carson 9
Bush 5

Margin: Trump +10

ARG, released 20.02.2016:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 37
Kasich 17
Cruz 12
Rubio 12
Carson 9
Bush 4

Margin: Trump +10



Nevada:

CNN/ORC, released 17.02.2016:
1,006 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 245 RLV, MoE = ?

Trump 45
Rubio 19
Cruz 17
Carson 7
Kasich 5
Bush 1

Margin: Trump +26

Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 18.02.2016:
687 RLV, MoE = +/-3.0

Trump 39
Cruz 23
Rubio 19
Kasich 9
Carson 5
Bush 5

Margin: Trump +16

New Jersey:

Rutgers / Eagleton, released 23.02.2016:
227 RRV, MoE = +/-7.0

Trump 38
Rubio 11
Cruz 10
Kasich 8
Bush 7
Carson 5

Margin: Trump +27


New Mexico:

Albequerque Journal / Research and Polling, released 20.02.2016:
403 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Cruz 25
Trump 24
Rubio 19
Carson 6
Bush 5
Kasich 4

Margin: Cruz +1


North Carolina:

SUSA/TWC News, released 17.02.2016:
1,650 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 437 RLV, MoE = +/-4.38

Trump 36
Cruz 18
Rubio 18
Carson 10
Kasich 7
Bush 5

Margin: Trump +18


Elon University, released 22.02.2016:
1,530 LV, MoE = +2.51
of them, 733 RLV

Trump 28
Cruz 19
Rubio 16
Carson 10
Kasich 7
Bush 4

Margin: Trump +9


PPP (D), released 22.02.2016:
1,291 RV, MoE = +/-2.7
of them, 597 RLV

Trump 29
Cruz 19
Rubio 16
Kasich 11
Carson 9
Bush 7


Margin: Trump +10



Ohio:

Quinnipiac, released 23.02.2016:
759 RLV, MoE = +/-3.6

Trump 31
Kasich 26
Cruz 21
Rubio 13
Carson 5

Margin: Trump +5


South Carolina:

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 15.02.2016:
1788 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,281 RLV, MoE = +/-3.0



Margin: Trump +14

PPP (D), released 16.02.2016:
897 RLV, MoE = +/-3.3

Trump 35
Rubio 18
Cruz 18
Kasich 10
Bush 7
Carson 7

Margin: Trump +17

Hypothetical 4,3 and 2-way races:

Trump 39
Rubio 21
Cruz 20
Bush 12
Margin: Trump +18

Trump 40
Rubio 28
Cruz 22
Margin: Trump +12

Trump 50 / Bush 40, Trump +10
Trump 48 / Cruz 38, Trump +10
Rubio 47 / Cruz 37, Rubio +10
Trump 46 / Rubio 45, Trump +1

There were also some interesting internal questions:



Interesting, but not all that surprising.

CNN/ORC, released 17.02.2016:
1,006 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 404 RLV, MoE = ?

Trump 38
Cruz 22
Rubio 14
Bush 6
Carson 6
Kasich 4

Margin: Trump +16

ARG, released 17.02.2016:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 33
Rubio 16
Cruz 14
Kasich 14
Bush 9
Carson 3

Margin: Trump +13

Monmouth, released 17.02.2016:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 35
Cruz 19
Rubio 17
Kasich 9
Bush 8
Carson 7

Margin: Trump +16

Bloomberg /Selzer, released 17.02.2016:
502 RLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 36
Cruz 17
Rubio 15
Bush 13
Carson 9
Kasich 7

Margin: Trump +19

Emerson College, released 17.02.2016:
375 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 33
Cruz 20
Rubio 19
Bush 9
Kasich 9
Carson 5

Margin: Trump +13

FOX News Poll, released 18.02.2016:
759 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 32
Cruz 19
Rubio 15
Bush 9
Kasich 9
Carson 6

Margin: Trump +13

Harper Polling (R), released 18.02.2016:
599 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 29
Cruz 17
Rubio 15
Bush 14
Kasich 13
Carson 8

Margin: Trump +12

ARG, released 18.02.2016:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 33
Rubio 20
Kasich 15
Cruz 13
Bush 8
Carson 3

Margin: Trump +13

ARG, released 19.02.2016:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 34
Rubio 22
Kasich 14
Cruz 13
Bush 9
Carson 4

Margin: Trump +12

NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 19.02.2016:
2,567 Adults, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 722 RLV

Trump 28
Crush 23
Rubio 15
Bush 13
Kasich 9
Carson 9

Margin: Trump +5

Emerson College, released 19.02.2016:
418 RLV, MoE = +/-4.7

Trump 36
Rubio 19
Cruz 18
Bush 10
Kasich 10
Carson 6

Margin: Trump +13

Opinion Savvy, released 19.02.2016:
780 RLV, MoE = +/-3.5

Trump 27
Rubio 24
Cruz 19
Bush 11
Kasich 8
Carson 7

Margin: Trump +3

Clemson University Palmetto Poll, released 19.02.2016:
650 RLV, MoE = +/-3.0

Trump 28
Cruz 19
Rubio 15
Bush 10
Kasich 9
Carson 6

Margin: Trump +9

National Research, Inc (R), released 19.02.2016:**
500 RRV, MoE = not listed

Trump 32
Cruz 19
Rubio 18
Bush 8
Kasich 7
Carson 6

Margin: Trump +9

Texas:

UT / Texas Tribune, released 22.02.2016:
324 DLV, MoE = +/-5.44

Cruz 37
Trump 29
Rubio 15
Kasich 5
Carson 4
(others who long dropped out, generally 1)

Margin: Cruz +8

Emerson College, released 24.02.2016:
446 RLV, MoE = +/-4.6

Cruz 29
Trump 28
Rubio 25
Kasich 9
Carson 4

Margin: Cruz +1


Utah:

Dan Jones and Associates (R), released 22.02.2016:
625 Adults, MoE = +/-3.92
of them, 305 RRV

Rubio 24
Cruz 22
Trump 18
Bush 9
Carson 9
Kasich 4

Margin: Rubio +2

Vermont:

Castleton University / Vermont Public Radio, released 22.02.2016:
895 Adults, MoE = +/-3.27
of them, 115 RLV (this polling group is way too small to be effective)

Trump 33
Rubio 15
Kasich 14
Cruz 8
Bush 6
Carson 4

Margin: Trump +18


Virginia:

Christopher Newport University, released 16.02.2016:
735 RV, MoE = +/-4.3
of them, 368 RLV, MoE = +/-5.6

Trump 28
Rubio 22
Cruz 19
Kasich 7
Carson 7
Bush 4

Margin: Trump +6

West Virginia:

R.L. Repass, released 22.02.2016:
411 LV, MoE = +/-4.9
of them, 159 RLV, MoE = +7 or more


Trump 40
Cruz 20
Rubio 15
Carson 10
Kasich 6
Bush 5

Margin: Trump +20


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