03 February 2016

2016 polling round-up, 01-14.02.2016: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING

Morning Consult (R), released 01.02.2016:
3,739 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,491 RRV, MoE = +/-2.5

Trump 41
Cruz 12
--------------
Rubio 9
Carson 8
Bush 7
Christie 3
(Huckabee 3)
all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +29


NBC News, Survey Monkey, released 02.02.2016:
9,923 RV, MoE = +/-1.4
of them, 3,057 RRV, MoE = +/-2.6

Trump 39
Cruz 20
Rubio 12
--------------
Carson 7
Bush 3
Christie 3
Kasich 3
(Paul 3)
(Huckabee 2)
Fiorina 2

Margin: Trump +19


PPP (D), released 04.02.2016:
531 RRV, MoE = +/-4.3

Trump 25
Cruz 21
Rubio 21
Carson 11
--------------
Bush 5
Kasich 5
(Paul 5)
Christie 3
Fiorina 3

Margin: Trump +4 (statistical 3-way tie)

Hypothetical 4-and-3-way matchups:

Rubio 32
Trump 31
Cruz 23
Bush 8
Margin: Rubio +1 (statistical tie)

Rubio 34
Trump 33
Cruz 25
Margin: Rubio +1 (statistical tie)

Rubio 39
Cruz 36
Bush 11
Margin: Rubio +3 (statistical tie)

Rubio 52 / Trump 40, Rubio +12
Rubio 46 / Cruz 40, Rubio +6
Cruz 47 / Trump 41, Trump +6

I'm generally not a huge fan of hypothetical 4-or-3 way matchups when a field is crowded with candidates, but when you consider that 3 GOPers dropped out in the last week, thus winnowing the field, this information becomes a little more interesting. Marco Rubio is the very first GOP candidate in PPP (D) polling to come over the 50 mark in a 4-or-3-way match and it is interesting to note that Trump does not win one single hypothetical.  So, were the field to thin a lot before March 15th, maybe it won't be Trump at all. One more thing is for sure, at least according to this polling: hypothetical smaller field matchups do not help Bush a bit. It sure looks to me as if Republicans are giving Marco Rubio a serious examination right now. Wait and see. Also, according to the poll, 77% of the Republican national electorate is older than 45 and 29% of of it is older than 65. Also, 55% of national Republicans in this poll are Evangelicals.

IPSOS/Reuters, released 04.02.2016:
1,685 Adults, MoE = +/-2.7
of them, 631 RRV, MoE = +/-4.4



Margin =  Trump +22 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +22 (RRV only), Trump +24 (IRV, R-leaning only)

Quinnipiac, released 05.02.2016:
1,125 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
Of them, 507 RRV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 31
Cruz 22
Rubio 19
--------------
Carson 6
Bush 3
Kasich 3
Christie 3
Fiorina 2

Margin: Trump +9

Rasmussen, released 08.02.2016:
725 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 31
Rubio 21
Cruz 20
--------------
Carson 9
Bush 4
Christie 3
Fiorina 3

Margin: Trump +10

Morning Consult, released 09.02.2016:
4,287 RV, MoE = +/-1.0
of them, 1,757 RRV

Trump 38
Cruz 17
Rubio 15
--------------
Carson 9
Bush 6
Kasich 3
(Christie 2)
(Fiorina 2)

Margin: Trump +19

NBC / News Monkey, released 09.11.2016:
9,484 RV, MoE = +/-1.5
Of them, 2,887 RV, MoE = +/-2.7

Trump 35
Cruz 20
Rubio 17
--------------
Carson 7
Bush 6
Kasich 3
(Christie 3)
(Fiorina 2)
(Paul 2)

Margin: Trump +15

IPSOS/Reuters, released 10.02.2016:
1,590 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
574 RRV, MoE = +/-4.7



Margin =  Trump +13 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +13 (RRV only), Trump +16 (IRV, R-leaning only)

Morning Consult (R), released 12.02.2016:
1,600 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
Of them, 710 RRV, MoE = +/-3.7

Trump 44
Cruz 17
Rubio 10
Carson 10
--------------
Bush 8
Kasich 4

Margin: Trump +27


xxx

GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Alabama:

Overtime Politics, released 04.02.2016:
408 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 37
Cruz 21
Rubio 18

--------------
Carson 6
Bush 3
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +16


Arkansas:

Hendrix College / Talk Business, released 07.02.2016:
908 LV, MoE = +/-3.3
of them, 457 RRV, MoE = +/-6.5

Cruz 27
Trump 23
Rubio 23
Carson 11
--------------
Fiorina 4
Kasich 4
Christie 1
Bush 1
Fiorina 1

Margin: Cruz +4 (3-way tie)

According to the poll, 79% of the GOP electorate in the state of Arkansas is evangelical. Also, according to the poll, the GOP electorate is 95% white. On the Democratic side, their electorate, according to this poll, is 80% white.


Florida:

Florida Southern College Center (FSCS), released 09.02.2016:
608 RV, MoE = +/-4.0
Subgroup numbers not indicated

Trump 27.41
Rubio 20.43
Cruz 12.35
--------------
Carson 6.04
Christie 3.71
Kasich 1.61

Margin: Trump +6.98 (+7)


Georgia:

Landmark Communications (R), Rosetta Stone / WSB TV-2/4, released 05.02.2016:
500 RLV, MoE = +/-4.5

Trump 27.3
Cruz 18.3
Rubio 18.2
--------------
Carson 7.7
Kasich 4.4
Christie 3.9
Bush 3.0
Fiorina 1.8

Margin: Trump +9

Early voting starts (started) in Georgia on Monday, February 8th, 2016. Georgia is part of the SEC primary on March 1st.


Iowa:

Quinnipiac, released 01.02.2016 (on the day of the IA caucuses):
890 RLV, MoE = +/-3.3

Trump 31
Cruz 24
Rubio 17
--------------
Carson 8
Bush 4
Paul 4
(Huckabee 3)
all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +7

Just for fun, the actual results from Iowa:




Actual result: Cruz +3.3
So, at the end of the day, Quinnipiac was off by 10.3 points.

Massachusetts:

Overtime Politics, released 12.02.2016:
403 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 43
Rubio 12
Cruz 10
--------------
Kasich 9
Bush 8
Carson 3
(Christie 3)
(Fiorina 2)

Margin: Trump +31


Michigan:

"Target Insyght" / MRS / IMP, released 05.02.2016:
400 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 35
Rubio 21
Cruz 21
--------------
Kasich 6
Carson 5
Bush 3
Christie 3
Fiorina 3

Margin: Trump +14 

Jeb Bush is at 3% in the state of Michigan. My, the name Bush is just not carrying weight anywhere among the GOP electorate. George W. Bush (43) lost the Michigan primary in 2000 to John McCain, one of only seven states he didn't win, but he still got to 44% in the Wolverine State. In 1980, George H. W. Bush (41) tromped Reagan in this state by 25 points. In 1988, he got the same topline percent (57%) and tromped Pat Robertson by 35 points. The fact that a Bush, even in a crowded field, cannot even get to 10% is a sure-fire sign that Jeb Bush's campaign is over with. Target Insyght appears to be a relatively new polling firm, or maybe, a retread, because it's CEO and boss, Ed Sarpoulis, who is pretty well known in Michigan political circles, was VP for EPIC/MRA for a long-time.

Mitchell Research (R) / Fox 2, released 08.02.2016:
330 RLV, MoE = +/-5.39

Trump 41
Rubio 20
Cruz 16
--------------
Carson 9
Bush 2
Christie 2
(Kasich, Fiorina were apparently not polled)

Margin: Trump +21 

The polling demographics claim that the Michigan GOP electorate is 97.3% White (the state statistics are 79.9% White, 14.2% Black, 4.8% Latino) and 83.6% over the age of 50. Very old, very White in a state

New Hampshire:

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 01.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,413 RV, MoE = +/-2.97
of them, 442 DLV, MoE = +/-5.3

Trump 38
Cruz 12
--------------
Bush 9
Kasich 9
Rubio 8
Christie 7
Carson 4
Paul 4
Fiorina 2

Margin: Trump +26

ARG, released 01.02.2016:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 34
Kasich 16
Rubio 11
Cruz 10
--------------
Bush 9
Christie 6
all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +18

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 02.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,412 RV, MoE = +/-2.95
of them, 470 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 38
Cruz 14
Rubio 10
--------------
Bush 9
Kasich 9
Christie 5
Carson 3
Fiorina 3
all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +24


Adrian Gray Consulting (R), released 02.02.2016:
491 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0





Margin: Trump +12

This poll was taken earlier than the UN Mass Lowell rolling rolling (tracking) that just started released on Monday. That being said, what is weird about this poll is that it estimates that only 59% of those who go to vote in the NH primary next will will be actual registered Republicans, the other 41% will be Independents who will decide to vote in the R-Primary (NH is a semi-open primary state). Ok, I can buy that statistic. But Trump has been absolutely soaring under Independents. With this kind of 59/41 voter breakdown, he should actually be doing better than the UN Mass Lowell series is showing. Also, this poll shows 5 candidates in double-digits, with a 2nd place tie between Rubio, Cruz and Bush. After Rubio's strong showing in Iowa on Monday, I am going to be very curious to see what happens to his numbers in the next 6 days. He really could emerge as the one viable "anti-Trump" candidate who is acceptable to the middle. Wait and see. If these numbers continue for John Kasich, then he will start picking up delegates, which will greatly help his standing in his home state of Ohio.

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 03.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,410 RV, MoE = +/-2.98
of them, 502 RLV, MoE = +/-4.8

Trump 38
Cruz 14 (no change)
Rubio 12 (+2)
--------------
Bush 9
Kasich 7 (-2)
Christie 6 (+1)
Carson 3 (-1)
Fiorina 3
all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +24 (unchanged)


Harper Polling (R), released 03.02.2016:
425 RLV, MoE = +/-4.75

Trump 31
Bush 14
Kasich 12
Rubio 10
--------------
Cruz 9
Christie 6
Fiorina 5
Carson 3
(Paul 3)
all others 0

Margin: Trump +17

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 04.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,410 RV, MoE = +/-2.88
of them, 487 RLV, MoE = +/-4.87

Trump 36
Rubio 15 (+3)
Cruz 14 (no change)
--------------
Bush 8 (-1)
Kasich 7 (no change)
Christie 5 (-1)
Carson 4 (-1)
Fiorina 3 (no change)

Margin: Trump +21 (-3)

ARG, released 04.02.2016:
418 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 34
Rubio 14
Cruz 13
Kasich 12
--------------
Bush 8 
Christie 6
Carson 2
Fiorina 2

Margin: Trump +20

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 05.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,417 RV, MoE = +/-2.89
of them, 500 RLV, MoE = +/-4.80

Trump 34 (-2)
Rubio 15 (no change)
Cruz 14 (no change)
--------------
Kasich 8 (+1)
Bush 8 (no change)
Christie 5 (no change)
Carson 4 (no change)
Fiorina 3 (no change)

Margin: Trump +19 (-2)


CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 05.02.2016:
287 RLV, MoE= +/-5.8

Trump 28
Rubio 17
Cruz 13
Kasich 13
--------------
Bush 9
Fiorina 5
Christie 4
Carson 1

Margin: Trump +11

I think this should be an alarming internal for the Trump campaign:



NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 05.02.2016:
2,232 RV, MoE = +/-2.1
of them, 653 RLV, MoE = +/-3.8

Trump 30
Rubio 17
Cruz 15
Kasich 10
--------------
Bush 9
Carson 4
Christie 4
Fiorina 2

Margin: Trump +13

ARG, released 05.02.2016:
420 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 36
Rubio 15
Cruz 14
Kasich 12
--------------
Bush 8 
Christie 6
Carson 2
Fiorina 2

Margin: Trump +21

MassInc/WBUR, released 05.02.2016:
410 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9




Margin: Trump +17

Suffolk University / Boston Globe, released 05.02.2016:
500 RLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Margin: Trump +9.4

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 05.02.2016:
1,573 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
Of them, 871 RRV, MoE = +/-3.3




Margin: Trump +10

UMass Amherst / WBZ-TV / YouGov, released 05.02.2016:
390 RLV, MoE = +/-7.1



Margin: Trump +20


UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 06.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,421 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
of them, 501 RLV, MoE = +/-4.86

Trump 35 (+1)
Rubio 14 (-1)
Cruz 13 (-1)
Kasich 10 (+2)
Bush 10 (+2)
--------------
Christie 4 (-1)
Carson 3 (-1)
Fiorina 3 (no change)

Margin: Trump +21 (+2)


ARG, released 06.02.2016:
415 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 34
Kasich 17
Rubio 16
--------------
Cruz 9
Bush 8 
Christie 5
Carson 2
Fiorina 2

Margin: Trump +21


Franklin Pierce University / RKM / Boston Herald, released 06.02.2016:

433 RLV, MoE = +/-4.7

Trump 31
Cruz 16
Rubio 15
Kasich 11
Bush 10
--------------
Christie 5
Fiorina 4
Carson 3


Margin: Trump +16

The FPU graphic has a wierd way of showing it, but we can see that Trump's topline shrank quite a bit in the last 7 days and his margin went from +25 to +15:




Still, a +15 is a big landslide margin and this value is much more in line with what other pollsters are saying as well. This is one of the only NH polls to show Cruz in second over Rubio - but the two have been roughly 1-2 points away from each other most of the time.

CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 07.02.2016:
362 RLV, MoE = +/-5.2

Trump 33 (+5)
Rubio 16 (-4)
Cruz 14 (+1)
Kasich 11 (-2)
--------------
Bush 7 (-2)
Fiorina 6 (+1) 
Christie 4 (no change)
Carson 2 (+1)

Margin: Trump +17


UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 07.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,413 RV, MoE = +/-2.97
of them, 516 RLV, MoE = +/-4.82

Trump 36 (+1)
Rubio 14 (no change)
Cruz 13 (no change)
Bush 10 (no change)
--------------
Kasich 9 (-1)
Christie 4 (no change)
Fiorina 4 (+1)
Carson 3 (no change)

Margin: Trump +22 (+1)


ARG, released 07.02.2016:
422 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 31 (-3)
Kasich 17 (no change)
Rubio 17 (+1)
--------------
Cruz 9 (no change)
Bush 9 (+1) 
Christie 5 (no change)
Fiorina 2 (no change)
Carson 1 (-1)

Margin: Trump +14 (-7)


Monmouth University, released 07.02.2016:
508 RLV, MoE = +/-4.4




Margin: Trump +16


ARG, released 08.02.2016:
422 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 30 (-1)
Kasich 16 (-1)
Rubio 16 (-1)
Cruz 10 (+1)
--------------
Bush 9 (no change) 
Christie 6 (+1)
Fiorina 3 (+1)
Carson 1 (no change)


Margin: Trump +14 (no change)


UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 08.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,411 RV, MoE = +/-2.99
of them, 407 DLV, MoE = +/-5.52

Trump 34 (-2)
Rubio 13 (-1)
Cruz 13 (no change)
Bush 10 (no change)
Kasich 10 (+1)
--------------
Christie 5 (+1)
Fiorina 4 (+1)
Carson 3 (no change)

Margin: Trump +21 (-1)

CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 08.02.2016:
362 RLV, MoE = +/-5.1

Trump 31 (-2)
Rubio 17 (+1)
Cruz 14 (no change)
Kasich 10 (-1)
--------------
Bush 7 (no change)
Fiorina 5 (-1) 
Christie 4 (no change)
Carson 3 (+1)

Margin: Trump +14

Emerson College, released 08.02.2016:
1,532 RV, MoE = +/-2.4
Of them, 686 RLV, MoE = +/-3.4

Trump 31
Bush 16
Rubio 13
Kasich 12
Cruz 11
--------------
Fiorina 7
Christie 6
Carson 3

Margin: Trump +15

Gravis (R), released 08.02.2016:
705 RLV, MoE = +/-3.7



Margin: Trump +11


ARG, released 09.02.2016:
418 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 33 (3)
Kasich 17 (+1)
Rubio 14 (-2)
Cruz 10 (no change)
--------------
Bush 9 (no change) 
Christie 8 (+2)
Fiorina 3 (no change)
Carson 1 (no change)


Margin: Trump +14 (no change)


New York:

Siena, released 08.02.2016:
930 RV, MOE = +/-3.8
of them, 235 RRV, MoE = +/-7.0

Trump 34
Rubio 16
Cruz 16
Christie 11
--------------
Carson 9
Bush 7
Kasich 4


Margin: Trump +18


North Carolina:

High Point University, released 08.02.2016:
955 LV, MoE = ?
of them, 477 RLV, MoE = ?

Trump 26
Cruz 22
Rubio 20
--------------
Carson 9
Bush 3
Christie 2
Kasich 2
(Huckabee 2)
(Paul 2)
Fiorina 1

Margin: Trump +4 (statistical 2-to-3 way tie)



Oklahoma:

Sooner Poll, released 09.02.2016:
414 RLV, MoE = +/-4.81

Trump 30
Cruz 25
Rubio 21
--------------
Carson 6
Bush 5
Kasich 3
(Fiorina 2)
(Christie 1)


Margin: Trump +5



South Carolina:

Opinion Savvy / Augusta Chronicle / FOX 5, released 12.02.2016:
775 RLV, MoE = +/-3.5

Trump 36.3
Cruz 19.6
Rubio 14.6
Bush 10.9
--------------
Kasich 8.7
Carson 4.7

Margin: Trump +16.7



CBS News / YouGov, released 14.02.2016:
1,315 RV, MoE = +/-5.2
Of them, 744 RLV, MoE not listed

Trump 42
Cruz 20
Rubio 15
--------------
Kasich 9
Bush 6
Carson 6

Margin: Trump +22

ARG, released 12.02.2016:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 35
Kasich 16
Rubio 14
Cruz 12
Bush 10
--------------
Carson 2

Margin: Trump +20

No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.