03 February 2016

2016 polling round-up, 01-14.02.2016: DEM Nomination

DEM NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING

Morning Consult (R), released 01.02.2016:
3,739 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,928 DRV, MoE = +/-2.2

Clinton 50
Sanders 34
(O'Malley 5)

Margin: Clinton +16

NBC News, Survey Monkey, released 02.02.2016:
9,923 RV, MoE = +/-1.4
of them, 3,233 DRV, MoE = +/-2.3

Clinton 50
Sanders 39
(O'Malley 2)

Margin: Clinton +11

PPP (D), released 04.02.2016:
517 DRV, MoE = +/-4.3

Clinton 53
Sanders 32

Margin: Clinton +21

IPSOS/Reuters, released 04.02.2016:
1,685 Adults, MoE = +/-2.7
of them, 704 DRV, MoE = +/-4.2



Margin = Clinton +11 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +15 (DRV only), Sanders +5 (IRV, D-leaning only)

Quinnipiac, released 05.02.2016:
1,125 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
Of them, 484 DRV, MoE = +/-4.5

Clinton 44
Sanders 42

Margin: Clinton +2 (statistical tie)

Rasmussen, released 05.02.2016:
574 DLV, MoE = +/-4.5

Clinton 50
Sanders 32

Margin: Clinton +18


Morning Consult, released 09.02.2016:
4,287 RV, MoE = +/-1.0
of them, 1,988 DRV

Clinton 50
Sanders 37

Margin: Clinton +13


NBC / News Monkey, released 09.11.2016:
9,484 RV, MoE = +/-1.5
Of them, 2,887 RV, MoE = +/-2.7

Clinton 51
Sanders 39

Margin: Clinton +12


IPSOS/Reuters, released 10.02.2016:
1,590 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
574 RRV, MoE = +/-4.7




Margin = Clinton +2 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +12 (DRV only), Sanders +29 (IRV, D-leaning only)

Morning Consult (R), released 12.02.2016:
1,600 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
Of them, 811 DRV, MoE = +/-3.4

Clinton 46
Sanders 39

Margin: Clinton +7



DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Alabama:

Overtime Politics, released 04.02.2016:
385 DLV, MoE = +/-5.1

Clinton 54
Sanders 43

Margin: Clinton +11


Arkansas:

Hendrix College / Talk Business, released 07.02.2016:
908 LV, MoE = +/-3.3
of them, 457 RRV, MoE = +/-6.5

Clinton 57
Sanders 25

Margin: Clinton +32

Florida:

Florida Southern College Center (FSCS), released 09.02.2016:
608 RV, MoE = +/-4.0
Subgroup numbers not indicated

Clinton 42.95
Sanders 26.04

Margin: Clinton +16.91 (+17)

Georgia:

Landmark Communications (R), Rosetta Stone / WSB TV-2/4, released 05.02.2016:
600 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 63.3
Sanders 21.5

Margin: Clinton +41.8

The poll reports that Clinton is getting circa 77% of the Black vote from the Georgia Democratic electorate. Early voting starts (started) in Georgia on Monday, February 8th, 2016. Georgia is part of the SEC primary on March 1st.


Iowa:

Quinnipiac, released 01.02.2016 (on the day of the Iowa Caucuses):
919 DLV, MoE = +/-3.2

Sanders 49
Clinton 46
(O'Malley 3)

Margin: Sanders +3

Just for fun, the actual results from Iowa:


Actual result: Clinton +0.3
So, at the end of the day, Quinnipiac was off by 3.3 points - which is right at the edge of their MoE.


Maine:

Overtime Politics, released 06.02.2016:
354 DLV, MoE = +/-5.9

Sanders 56
Clinton 41

Margin: Sanders +15


Massachusetts:

Overtime Politics, released 12.02.2016:
417 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 50
Sanders 44

Margin: Clinton +6

Michigan:

"Target Insyght" / MRS / IMP, released 05.02.2016:
400 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 62
Sanders 30

Margin: Clinton +32

The poll says that 76% of Clinton's voters are already committed, while only 53% of Sanders' voters are. Target Insyght appears to be a relatively new polling firm, or maybe, a retread, because it's CEO and boss, Ed Sarpoulis, who is pretty well known in Michigan political circles, was VP for EPIC/MRA for a long-time.

Mitchell Research (R) / Fox 2, released 08.02.2016:
321 DLV, MoE = +/-5.47

Clinton 57
Sanders 28

Margin: Clinton +29




New Hampshire:

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 01.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,413 RV, MoE = +/-2.97
of them, 442 DLV, MoE = +/-5.3

Sanders 61
Clinton 30
(O'Malley 1)

Margin: Sanders +31


ARG, released 01.02.2016:
600 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Sanders 49
Clinton 43
(O'Malley 3)

Margin: Sanders +6

It is nothing less than amazing that one the very same day, two polls taken within exactly the same time frame and released on the same day should show such utterly disparate results. That's a 25 difference in margin.

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 02.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,412 RV, MoE = +/-2.95
of them, 443 DLV, MoE = +/-5.3

Sanders 63
Clinton 30
(O'Malley 1)

Margin: Sanders +33


UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 03.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,410 RV, MoE = +/-2.98
of them, 415 DLV, MoE = +/-5.38

Sanders 61 (-2)
Clinton 32 (+2)
(O'Malley 1)

Margin: Sanders +29

UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 04.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,410 RV, MoE = +/-2.88
of them, 420 DLV, MoE = +/-5.33

Sanders 58 (-3)
Clinton 36 (+4)

Margin: Sanders +21

ARG, released 04.02.2016:
410 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Sanders 54
Clinton 38

Margin: Sanders +16

NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 04.02.2016:
2,232 RV, MoE = +/-2.1
of them, 567 DLV, MoE = +/-4.1

Sanders 58
Clinton 38

Margin: Sanders +20


UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 05.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,417 RV, MoE = +/-2.89
of them, 434 DLV, MoE = +/-5.24

Sanders 55
Clinton 40

Margin: Sanders +15

CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 05.02.2016:
333 DLV, MoE = +/-5.4

Sanders 61
Clinton 31

Margin: Sanders +30

I posted this internal on the Republican side, where 33% of Republicans in NH would under no circumstance vote for Trump. There is a similar, yet less stinging statistic for Hillary Clinton in the same CNN poll from New Hampshire, taken of the Democrats there:



ARG, released 05.02.2016:
409 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Sanders 54
Clinton 38

Margin: Sanders +16

MassInc/WBUR, released 05.02.2016:
393 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Sanders 54
Clinton 39

Margin: Sanders +15

Suffolk University / Boston Globe, released 05.02.2016:
500 DLV, MoE = +/-4.4



Margin: Sanders +9


Gravis (R) / OANN, released 05.02.2016:
1,573 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
Of them, 702 DRV, MoE = +/-3.7




Margin: Sanders +16

UMass Amherst / WBZ-TV / YouGov, released 05.02.2016:
410 DLV, MoE = +/-6.6

Sanders 58
Clinton 35

Margin: Sanders +23 


UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 06.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,421 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
of them, 501 RLV, MoE = +/-4.86

Sanders 55 (+1)
Clinton 41 (+2)

Margin: Sanders +14



ARG, released 06.02.2016:
405 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Sanders 53 (-1)
Clinton 41 (+3)

Margin: Sanders +12 (-4)

Franklin Pierce University / RKM / Boston Herald, released 06.02.2016:
407 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Sanders 51
Clinton 44

Margin: Sanders +7

That's a steep drop in Sanders's margin from last month, according to this pollster. He went from +20 over Clinton to +7:



CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 07.02.2016:
406 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Sanders 58 (-3)
Clinton 35 (+4)

Margin: Sanders +23 (-7)


UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 07.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,413 RV, MoE = +/-2.97

of them, 428 RLV, MoE = +/-5.38

Sanders 57 (+2)
Clinton 40 (-1)


Margin: Sanders +17 (+3)

ARG, released 07.02.2016:
408 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Sanders 53
Clinton 42 (+1)


Margin: Sanders +11 (-1)

Monmouth University, released 07.02.2016:

502 DLV, MoE = +/-4.4






Margin: Sanders +10

ARG, released 08.02.2016:
408 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Sanders 53
Clinton 41 (-1)

Margin: Sanders +12 (+1)



UN Mass Lowell / 7 News, released 08.02.2016:
This is a tracking poll series
1,411 RV, MoE = +/-2.99
of them, 407 DLV, MoE = +/-5.52

Sanders 56 (-1)
Clinton 40 (no change)

Margin: Sanders +16 (-1)


CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 08.02.2016:
363 DLV, MoE = +/-5.1

Sanders 61 (+3)
Clinton 35 (no change)


Margin: Sanders +26 (+3)

Emerson College, released 08.02.2016:
1,532 RV, MoE = +/-2.4

Of them, 686 RLV, MoE = +/-3.4

Sanders 54
Clinton 42

Margin: Sanders +12


ARG, released 09.02.2016:
409 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Sanders 53
Clinton 44 (+3)

Margin: Sanders +9 (-3)


Nevada:

TargetPoint / Washington Free Beacon, released 12.02.2016:
1,236 DLV, MoE = +/-2.9

Clinton 45
Sanders 45


Margin: TIE

TargetPoint is a Republican polling firm and many of the extra questions they asked in the poll come dangerously close to being "push-poll" questions. Also, the Washington Free Beacon is a hard Right leaning news publication. In fact, it is so hyperpartisan that you can find this on the permanent front page right now:


So, why a so unbelievably hard-Right publication would want to sign up with a Republican pollster to test a Democratic race is somewhat of a mystery to me.  But THIS data point tells me how off kilter the poll is:



Considerably more than just 17% of NV Democrats belong to a Union. In fact, the Culinary Union vote from Las Vegas will be the deciding factor in the NV primary, and that majority of the Culinary Union workers from Las Vegas are Latinos, who are swinging extraordinarly heavily for Clinton.

Also, the poll lied about "likely Democrats". Only 67% of the poll respondents are definitely going to caucus, and only 72% of all of the survey respondents are Democrats.

I would really like to know exactly WHO paid for this poll. And I would put good money on the table that it was either the Trump or the Cruz campaign. Anyone wanna bet?

New York:

Siena, released 08.02.2016:
930 RV, MOE = +/-3.8

of them, 434 DRV, MoE = +/-5.6

Clinton 55
Sanders 34

Margin: Clinton +21



North Carolina:

High Point University, released 08.02.2016:
955 LV, MoE = ?
of them, 477 RLV, MoE = ?

Clinton 55
Sanders 29

Margin: Clinton +26



Oklahoma:

Sooner Poll, released 09.02.2016:
382 RLV, MoE = not listed, likely +/-5.2

Clinton 44
Sanders 28

Margin: Clinton +16

South Carolina:

CBS News / YouGov, released 14.02.2016:
1,315 RV, MoE = +/-5.2
Of them, 404 DLV, MoE not listed

Clinton 59
Sanders 40

Margin: Clinton +19

ARG, released 14.02.2016:
400 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 65
Sanders 27

Margin: Clinton +38


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