03 February 2016

2016 polling round-up, 01-14.02.2016: D-vs-R Presidential Matchups

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING

Morning Consult (R), released 01.02.2016:
waiting on PDF, but this link claims that both DEMS easily lead the GOP field.


Quinnipiac, released 05.02.2016:
1,125 RV, MoE = +/-2.9

Clinton 41 / Rubio 48, margin = Rubio +7
Clinton 45 / Cruz 45, margin = TIE
Clinton 46 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +5

Sanders 43 Rubio 43, margin = TIE
Sanders 46 / Cruz 42, margin = Sanders +4
Sanders 49 / Trump 39, margin = Sanders +10

Sanders 35 / Trump 36 / Bloomberg 15, margin = Trump +1
Sanders 37 / Cruz 36 / Bloomberg 15, margin = Sanders +1

The problem, the intellectually dishonest problem, once again, with Quinnipiac, is the party identification within their poll:



Morning Consult, released 09.02.2016:
4,287 RV, MoE = +/-1.0

Clinton 43 / Rubio 44, margin = Rubio +1
Clinton 45 / Cruz 42, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 41 / Carson 41, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 45 / Trump 40, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 45 / Bush 39, margin = Clinton +6

Clinton 37 / Trump 35 / Bloomberg 14, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 39 / Cruz 33 / Bloomberg 12, margin = Clinton +6

Sanders 39 / Trump 33 / Bloomberg 12, margin = Sanders +6
Sanders 39 / Trump 31 / Bloomberg 11, margin = Sanders +8

The survey relects a D+5 electorate (it was D+7 in 2012, D+8 in 2008)


IPSOS/Reuters, released 10.02.2016:
1,337 RV, MoE = +/-3.2

Clinton 44 / Cruz 34, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 44 / Trump 34, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 41 / Trump 31 / Bloomberg 10, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 41 / Cruz 29 / Bloomberg 10, margin = Clinton +12

Sanders 45 / Trump 34, margin = Sanders +11
Sanders 45 / Cruz 32, margin = Sanders +13
Sanders 41 / Trump 31 / Bloomberg 8, margin = Sanders +10
Sanders 42 / Cruz 29 / Bloomberg 9, margin = Sanders +13

Morning Consult (R), released 12.02.2016:
1,600 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 37 / Trump 36 / Bloomberg 14, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 39 / Cruz 30 / Bloomberg 16, margin = Clinton +9

Sanders 38 / Trump 37 / Bloomberg 12, margin = Sanders +1
Sanders 38 / Cruz 30 / Bloomberg 13, margin = Sanders +8



D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING

Florida:

Florida Southern College Center (FSCS), released 09.02.2016:
608 RV, MoE = +/-4.0
Subgroup numbers not indicated

Clinton 41.7 / Bush 45.0, margin = Bush +3.3
Clinton 42.7 / Rubio 45.2, margin = Rubio +2.5
Clinton 44.9 / Cruz 41.7, margin = Clinton +3.2
Clinton 44.6 / Trump 37.6, margin = Clinton +7

Sanders 44.3 / Rubio 43.0, margin = Sanders +1.3
Sanders 45.2 / Bush 40.8, margin = Sanders +4.4
Sanders 48.0 / Trump 38.8, margin = Sanders +9.2
Sanders 46.1 / Cruz 36.7, margin = Sanders +9.4

This is one of the more dishonest polls I have ever seen, and for this reason:


This poll sees an R-VR edge of +12.3. That is bullshit.

Here are the current VR stats for Florida:



Out of 11,943,179 RV, that comes out to 37.84% D / 35.11% D, D +2.73, which puts the polls demographics FIFTEEN PERCENT away from reality.  The poll claims that the R % is a "slight oversampling". Being off by 15% is not "slight", it is an out and out lie.

New York:

Siena, released 08.02.2016:
930 RV, MOE = +/-3.8

Clinton 54 / Rubio 37, margin = Clinton +17
Clinton 55 / Christie 36, margin = Clinton +19
Clinton 57 / Cruz 34, margin = Clinton +23
Clinton 57 / Bush 33, margin = Clinton +24
Clinton 57 / Trump 32, margin = Clinton +25
Clinton 57 / Kasich 31, margin = Clinton +26

Sanders 56 / Rubio 34, margin = Sanders +22
Sanders 58 / Christie 35, margin = Sanders +23
Sanders 59 / Kasich 29, margin = Sanders +30
Sanders 60 / Cruz 30, margin = Sanders +30
Sanders 61 / Bush 30, margin = Sanders +31
Sanders 63 / Trump 30, margin = Sanders +33

Virginia:

Roanoke College, released 03.02.2016:
524 LV, MoE = +/-4.3

Clinton 46 / Rubio 43, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 45 / Cruz 41, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 52 / Trump 35, margin = Clinton +14

Sanders 48 / Rubio 38, margin = Sanders +10
Sanders 49 / Cruz 37, margin = Sanders +12
Sanders 55 / Trump 33, margin = Sanders +22



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