03 January 2016

Polling wrap up, 16-31.12.2015

So, we now close the books on the year 2015, which has produced more polling than any "off year" in our Union's history.  As predicted in the last polling round-up, because of the Christmas Holidays, there was less polling in the second half of December 2015, and considerably less at the state level.

So, here we go:

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


1.) Morning Consult (R), released 16.12.2015: (pre-debate, see also post-debate poll from 18.12.2015) Trump +30
2.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 16.12.2015Trump +21 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +22 (RRV only), Trump +19 (IRV, R-leaning only)
3.) Morning Consult (R), released 18.12.2015 (post GOP debate): Trump +24
4.) PPP (D), released 18.12.2015: Trump +16 (also hypothetical 4-,3- and 2-way races in the poll)
5.) FOX News Poll, released 18.12.2015: Trump +21 (also 2 hypothetical 4-way races in the poll)
6.) Emerson College, released 21.12.2015: Trump +15.2
7.) Quinnipiac, released 22.12.2015: Trump +4
8.) CNN/ORC, released 23.12.2015: Trump +21
9.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 23.12.2015Trump +20 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +26 (RRV only), Trump +9 (IRV, R-leaning only)
10.) The Economist / YouGov, released 23.12.2015: Trump +16
11.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 31.12.2015Trump +19 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +27 (RRV only), Trump +13 (IRV, R-leaning only)

Removing the three repeaters (Morning Consult, 2 Ipsos/Reuters), that leaves us with 8 polls, the average of which is: Trump +18.03

In this case, mathematically, the Quinnipiac poll is the outlier, being the only poll to show Trump in single digits over another candidate.

In all cases, Ted Cruz is now in 2nd place.


GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Florida:
St. Pete Polls, released 16.12.2015: Trump +12.7
Opinon Savvy / FOX 13 Tampa Bay / Florida Times Union, released 17.12.2015: Trump +9.3
Average: Trump +11

Georgia:
Opinion Savvy / Fox 5 Atlanta, released 17.12.2015: Trump +18.8

Iowa:
CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015: Cruz +9
Gravis (R), released 23.12.2015: absolute TIE (+/-0), Cruz / Trump
Average: Cruz +4.5

Nevada:
Gravis (R), released 30.12.2015: Trump +12

New Hampshire:
Franklin Pierce /Boston Herald, released 17.12.2015: Trump +13.6
CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015: Trump +18
ARG, released 23.12.2015: Trump +6
Average: Trump +12.53

South Carolina:
Opinion Savvy / Augusta Chronicle, released 18.12.2015: Trump +7.2
CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015: Trump +15
Average: Trump +11.1

So, that makes for 11 polls from 6 states, with Trump ahead everywhere but in Iowa. Also to notice is that Trump's South Carolina margin has gone down considerably. He was once over +30 in this state, so this may be a sign that the state, one of the 1st four primary/caucus states in the Union, may end up being competitive. Wait and see.

Toplines, survey sizes, MoEs and other internal details for the GOP polling are HERE.


DEM NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


1.) Morning Consult (R), released 16.12.2015: Clinton +25
2.) Monmouth University, released 16.12.2015: Clinton +33
3.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 16.12.2015Clinton +18 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +29 (DRV only), Sanders +14 (IRV, D-leaning only)
4.) ABC / WAPO, released 17.12.2015: Clinton +31
5.) PPP (D), released 18.12.2015: Clinton +28
6.) FOX News Poll, released 18.12.2015: Clinton +22
7.) Emerson College, released 21.12.2015: Clinton +39.8
8.) Quinnipiac, released 22.12.2015: Clinton +31
9.) Rasmussen Reports, released 22.12.2015: Clinton +16
10.) CNN/ORC, released 23.12.2015: Clinton +16
11.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 23.12.2015Clinton +19 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +27 (DRV only), Clinton +2 (IRV, D-leaning only)
12.) The Economist / YouGov, released 23.12.2015: Clinton +14

Average, week 3 (minus 1 IPSOS/Reuters repeater, avg. of 11 polls): Clinton +25.70

Clintons national margins over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders range from +40 (Emerson) to +14 (YouGov), but 8 of twelve polls show her over +20 over Sanders. It's a blowout race, and actually, it's over with.
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13.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 31.12.2015Clinton +17 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +25 (DRV only), Clinton +1 (IRV, D-leaning only)

Only one poll was released in the 4th December week, but the +25 among DRV is absolutely in-line with Clinton's week 3 average. No change.


DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Iowa:
CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015: Clinton +5
Gravis (R), released 23.12.2015: Clinton +18
Average: Clinton +11.5

Nevada:
Gravis (R), released 30.12.2015: Clinton +23

New Hampshire:
Franklin Pierce /Boston Herald, released 17.12.2015: Sanders +2.2
CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015: Sanders +14
ARG, released 23.12.2015: Clinton +3
Average: Sanders +4.4

South Carolina:
CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015: Clinton +36

So, that makes for 7 DEM nomination state polls from the four "1st in the nation states" and here we see a pattern identical to the Republican side: the frontrunner, in this case, Hillary Clinton, is dominating in 3 of the 4 "1st in the nation states".  Her extremely large margin in Nevada, a state with a very large Latino population, the vast majority of which has registered voters in the Democratic party, indicates that Clinton is doing well among the Latino vote. And her margin in South Carolina has been between +30 and +40 for months now. The shift back toward Clinton in Iowa, which happened more than one month ago, is contining to be confirmed by the present numbers.  Sander's lead in New Hampshire is being dampened somewhat by the ARG poll. ARG is a mysterious firm that refuses to release internals and has, like Zogby, produced some very bizarre results in the past. Wait and see.


Toplines, survey sizes, MoEs and other internal details for the DEM polling are HERE.


D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING


Morning Consult (R), released 16.12.2015: 6 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she wins all 6 with between +5 and +11. Ted Cruz and Chris Christie do the worst. Morning Consult has dropped Rand Paul from the matchups and replaced him with Christie.

ABC / WAPO, released 17.12.2015: one matchup: Clinton +6 over Trump, and at the 50 mark.

FOX News Poll, released 18.12.2015: 4 Clinton vs. GOP matchups: Hillary loses to Rubio, ties Carson and beats both Cruz and Trump. She beats Trump by +11. At the big link below, you will see a screenshot from the FOX poll showing the shift toward Clinton vis-a-vis the previous FOX poll. The numbers are pretty stark.

Emerson College, released 21.12.2015: 4 Clinton vs. GOP matchup: Hillary narrowly loses to Rubio, wins the other three matchups.

PPP (D), released 21.12.2015: 13 matchups total: 5 Clinton vs. GOP, 5 Sanders vs. the same GOP, 3 3-way matchups: Clinton loses to Rubio by 1 point, ties Carson (a statistic very similar to the FOX poll in this case),  and beats Cruz, Trump and Bush.  Sanders ties Carson but loses to the other four. In the 3-way matchups, Clinton wins by +14 and +16 over real names, with Trump as the independent. In the third matchup, with Trump as a Republican and a generic unnamed person as the Independent, she wins by 1 point. See: Rasmussen below.

Quinnipiac, released 22.12.2015: 6 matchups: 3 Clinton vs. GOP, 3 Sanders vs. the same GOP.  Clinton ties with Cruz, beats Rubio and Trump. Sanders loses to Rubio and Cruz but beats Trump by +13, the largest margin in the poll. In both Trump matchups, he only gets 4% of the Democratic vote, which flies in the face of unfounded claims that Trump is scoring well with Democrats. Well, he is not.

CNN/ORC, released 23.12.2015: 3 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she loses to Rubio and Cruz, beats Trump. All within the MoE.

Rasmussen Reports, released 28.12.2015: 1 matchup: Clinton 37 / Trump 36, margin = Clinton +1
This poll looks alot like the one 3-way poll from PPP (D) above, only it points to the intellectual dishonesty of Rasmussen, which did not bill the matchup as a three-way matchup, in spite of the fact that it went out of it's way to word the question to include a possible 3rd party unnamed candidate.

Overall, 38 national matchups in the second half of December, 2015.

All in all, national polling shows a massive uptick for Clinton in all corners. Carson has faded in GOP nomination polling and also in D vs R polling. In his stead, Cruz is (mostly) on the rise.

I thought that in the interest of seeing all of the numbers for December in table form, here are screenshots of the EXCEL data for the national polling:







The names of the GOP candidates are listed in no specific order.


D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING

Arizona:
Strategies 360 (R), released 17.09.2015: 3 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she loses all three, but only by 2 to Trump, in a state that is usually R +10 on election night.

Iowa:
PPP (D), released 17.12.2015: 13 matchups total: 6 Clinton vs. GOP, 1 Sanders vs. the same GOP, 1 3-way matchup: Clinton loses 2, ties one, wins three. Sanders loses 1, wins 5. Clinton wins the 3-way match. 8 of the 13 margins are within the MoE.


Toplines, survey sizes, MoEs and other internal details for the D-vs-R polling are HERE.

As predicted, state matchup polling was extremely light, presumably because of the Christmas holidays.  That, however, should change in January.

I have discovered a new polling firm called "Overtime Politics" and am researching it to see if it is for real, or just a fly-by-night kind of thing. Email exchanges with the admin of the polling site are indicating to me that it is real, in which case I may be adding 4 polls to this part of December. Wait and see.

But to close out 2015, here the final statistics on how many polls and matchups I have analysed and logged:



That screenshot is just a small excerpt. From the end of 2012 to the end of 2015, 3 years now, there have been 482 polls, 141 of them national polls, 337 state polls and 4 specialty polls, making for a grand total of 2,123 matchups that I have logged. More than 1/2 of that polling happened in 2015 alone (proof HERE). You can see from the screenshot what percentage of matchups each side has won, including a percentage of absolute ties.

Until the Iowa Caucuses are over with and New Hampshire has come and gone, I will continue with this kind of polling log-data, but by the end of February, I will be starting my Electoral Landscape series, ala 2012. You can see my final Electoral Landscape from 2012 HERE.

So, off we go into 2016, likely to be the most expensive and also the nastiest presidential election in our history.

-Stat






1 comment:

  1. Do you still think the Democratic race is over with? Polls show Iowa tightening, and a larger lead for Sanders in NH. Unfortunately, there are no recent polls for SC or Nevada.

    ReplyDelete

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