18 January 2016

Polling wrap-up, 01-15.01.2016

There has been an interesting shift in some of the polling, worth looking at.

So, here we go:

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING

1.) NBC News / SurveyMonkey, released 05.01.2016: Trump +17
2.) Reuters tracking polling, released 06.01.2016: Trump +33.4
3.) IPSOS/Reuters core-approval poll, released 07.01.2016: Margin =  Trump +19 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +26 (RRV only), Trump +9 (IRV, R-leaning only)
4.) FOX News Poll, released 08.01.2016: Trump +15
5.) The Economist / YouGov, released 08.01.2016: Trump +17

Week one average: Trump +21.68 (with Reuters one-day poll), Trump +19.75 (without)
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6.) IDB/TIPP, released 09.01.2016: Trump +16
7.) Gravis (R) / OANN, released 12.01.2016: Trump +21
8.) NBC News / SurveyMonkey, released 12.01.2016: Trump +18
9.) CBS/NYT, released 12.01.2016: Trump +17
10.) The Economist /YouGOV, released 13.01.2016: Trump +16
11.) Morning Consult (R), released 13.01.2016: Trump +30
12.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 13.01.2016: Margin =  Trump +17 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +24 (RRV only), Trump +7 (IRV, R-leaning only)
13.) Gravis (R) / OANN, released 15.01.2016 (post-debate poll): Trump +17
14:) NBC / WSJ, released 14.01.2016: Trump +13

Without repeaters, week two average: Trump +18.86 (+19)

For the first week, we see a stand-alone Reuters poll and the next day, we see the IPSOS/Reuters 10 day rolling data. Surely the Trump +33.4 from the stand-alone poll is within the other poll, so I did not average it in.

For the second week, Gravis (R) / OANN did two polls very close to each other. I obviously averaged in the later poll.

Of these 14 polls, we see a margin from between +16 and +18 in 7 of them, so there is a lot of consistency, here.

At this stage in the game in January, 2012, Mitt Romney was not doing nearly this well in GOP national polling and he went on to sweep the primaries and become the Republican nominee.

GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

California: Field Poll, released 05.01.2016: Cruz +2

Illinois: Compass Consulting, LLC (R), released 01.04.2016 (taken 19-22.12.2015): Trump +15.1

Iowa:
FOX News, released 08.12.2016: Cruz +4
NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 10.01.2016: Cruz +4
Quinnipiac, released, 11.01.2016: Trump +2
ARG, released 11.01.2016: Trump +4
PPP (D), released 12.01.2016: Trump +2
Des Moines Register / Bloomberg / Selzer, released 13.01.2016: Cruz +3
Gravis (R) / OANN, released 13.01.2016: Trump +4

Average: Trump +0.14 (statistical tie, almost perfect tie)

Michigan: Overtime Politics, released 05.01.2015:* Trump +15 (Carson at 7%)

New Hampshire:

America Leads (R), released 04.01.2016, taken 19-22.12.2015 for the Christie campaign: Trump +16
PPP (D), released 06.01.2016: Trump +14
FOX News, released 08.01.2016: Trump +18
NH1 "Reach" Communications, released 08.01.2016: Trump +19.8, +26.2 (RRV only)
NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 10.01.2016: Trump +16
ARG, released 11.01.2016: Trump +11
Monmouth University, released 11.01.2016: Trump +18
Overtime Politics, released 14.01.2016: Trump +15

Average (7 day, from 04.01-11.01): Trump + 15.98

So, Ted Cruz's statistical advantage has been erased in Iowa and it's now a tie. Not that that means much: in 2012, Rick Santorum won the IA caucuses by a razor-thin margin, Ron Paul walked away with more delegates and Mitt Romney got the nomination. Trump is cruising in New Hampshire.

It's essentially a tie in delegate-right California, but that picture may change too, since California's primary is one of the last in the Union.

Complete toplines and some screenshots of important side-data for all of the Republican numbers from 01-15.01.2016 can be found HERE.


DEM NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING

1.) NBC News / SurveyMonkey, released 05.01.2016: Clinton +17
2.) IPSOS/Reuters core-approval poll, released 07.01.2016Clinton +17 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +28 (DRV only), absolute TIE (+/-0) (IRV, D-leaning only)
3.) FOX News Poll, released 08.01.2016: Clinton +15
4.) The Economist / YouGov, released 08.01.2016: Clinton +17

Average, week-one: Clinton +19.25
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5.) IDB/TIPP, released 09.01.2016: Clinton +4
6.) Gravis (R) / OANN, released 12.01.2016: Clinton +39
7.) NBC News / SurveyMonkey, released 12.01.2016: Clinton +17
8.) CBS/NYT, released 12.01.2016: Clinton +7
9.) Morning Consult (R), released 13.01.2016: Clinton +17
10.) IPSOS/Reuters, released 13.01.2016Clinton +11 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +19 (DRV only), absolute TIE (+/-0) (IRV, D-leaning only)

Average, week-two: Clinton +17.16


Clinton's margin average over Sander's is somewhat leaner than in December, but not much.

Both Trump and Clinton, in terms of national polling, are easily leading their respective fields.


DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING


California: Field Poll, released 06.01.2016; Clinton +11

Iowa: 
NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 10.01.2016: Clinton +3
ARG, released 11.01.2016: Sanders +3
PPP (D), released 12.01.2016: Clinton +8
Quinnipiac, released 12.01.2016; Sanders +5
Des Moines Register / Bloomberg / Selzer, released 13.01.2016: Clinton +2

Average: Clinton +1 (statistical tie)

Michigan: Overtime Politics, released 05.01.2015:* Clinton +7

New Hampshire: 
PPP (D), released 06.01.2016: Clinton +3
FOX News, released 08.01.2016:  Clinton +13
NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 10.01.2016: Sanders +4
ARG, released 11.01.2016: Sanders +3
Monmouth University, released 12.01.2016: Sanders +14
Overtime Politics, released 14.01.2016: Sanders +14

Average: Sanders +3.67

So, it's close in both of the first-in-the-nation states: Clinton is doing better in NH than she had been, Sanders is faring better in IA than he had. In other words, the traditional tightening of the race. That Clinton is so far ahead in California is interesting.


For complete toplines and some screenshots of internals for the DEM race, both nationally and on the state-level, see HERE.


D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING

FOX News Poll, released 08.01.2016: 4 Clinton vs. GOP matchups. She ties Bush, loses to the others. The FOX poll reflects a tied electorate (D 40 / R 40), which is completely ridiculous.

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 12.01.2016: 7 Clinton vs. GOP matchups: She ties 3 GOPers and loses to 4 others, according to Birther-friendly OANN.

Morning Consult (R), released 13.01.2016: 6 Clinton vs. GOP matchups: she narrowly loses to Trump, wins against the other five.


D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING

Iowa:
NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 10.01.2016: 6 matchups, 3 Clinton vs. GOP, 3 Sanders vs. GOP: Clinton beats Trump mightily, loses to Rubio and Cruz. Sanders ties Rubio, beats both Cruz and Trump. He beats Trump by 13 points.

New Hampshire:

PPP (D), released 08.01.2016: 12 matchups, 10 2-man races (5 Clinton vs. GOP, 5 Sanders vs. GOP), 2 three-man races. The Ds win every matchup. Sanders beats both Trump and Cruz by +20. Clinton beats Trump by +14.


NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 10.01.2016: 6 matchups, 3 Clinton vs. GOP, 3 Sanders vs. GOP: Clinton beats Trump narrowly, loses to Rubio and Cruz. Sanders beats all three handily.

As expected, there were fewer national and state D-vs-R matchups as the game is gearing up for IA and NH.

Complete toplines and some internals for the D-vs-R polling can be found HERE.






















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