18 January 2016

2016 polling round-up, 15-31.01.2016: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


NBC/WSJ, released 17.01.2016:
800 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 400 RRV, MoE = +/-4.9




Margin: Trump +13

And in a theoretical 4-man race:




Margin: Trump +11


And in two hypothetical 2-way races:



Again Cruz: Cruz +8
Against Rubio: Trump +7

NBC News, Survey Monkey, released 19.01.2016:
10,320 RV, MoE = +/-1.3
of them, 3,342 RRV, MoE = +/-2.3

Trump 38
Cruz 21
Rubio 11
-------
Carson 8
Bush 4
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Kasich 2
Huckabee 2

Margin: Trump +17

Morning Consult (R), released 19.01.2016:
4,026 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,635 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Trump 39
Cruz 13
-------
Rubio 9
Carson 8
Bush 7
Christie 3
Huckabee 3
Paul 3
Kasich 2
Fiorina 2

Margin: Trump +26

Monmouth University, released 20.01.2016:
385 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0



Margin: Trump +19

Apparently, Trump going all birther on Cruz is working:


If this poll is accurate, then that means that 1/3 of the Republican electorate either thinks that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is not qualified to be President, or they are not sure. After 8 years of "birther" raging over President Obama, I cannot see how this can be of any help to Ted Cruz right now.

IPSOS-Reuters, released 22.01.2016:
1,561 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 588 RRV, MoE = +/-4.6



Margin =  Trump +24 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +24 (RRV only), Trump +30 (IRV, R-leaning only)

This poll reflects a huge jump for Trump among Republican leaning independents, from +9 at the last poll, to +30 with this poll.

Zogby Analytics, released 22.01.2016:
294 RLV, MoE = +/- 5.8

Trump 45
Cruz 13
-------
Rubio 8
Bush 6
Carson 4
Fiorina 3
Kasich 3
Christie 2
Huckabee 2
Paul 2
Santorum 2

Margin: Trump +32

The Zogby-site caused my computer to light up with Malware warnings. Be careful going there. He usually gives percentages down to the 1/100th of a percent, but in this case, I lifted the numbers from the HuffPo polling aggregate.

FOX News Poll, released 22.01.2016:
1,009 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 405 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0



Margin: Trump +14
Almost no change over the FOX poll from two weeks earlier.

This FOX poll internal is interesting and shows some cognitive dissonance at work:



ABC/WAPO, released 26.01.2016:
1,001 Adults, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 365 RLV, MoE = +/-5.5



Margin: Trump +14

CNN/ORC, released 26.01.2016:
1,002 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 405 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 41
Cruz 19
-------
Rubio 8
Carson 6
Bush 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 3
Paul 3
Fiorina 2
Kasich 1

Margin: Trump +22

NBC News / Survey Monkey, released 26.01.2016:
8,215 RV, MoE = +/-1.3
of them, 2,327 RRV, MoE = +/- 2.8


Margin: Trump +22
xx

Morning Consult (R), released 26.01.2016:
4,001 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,552 RRV

Trump 40
Cruz 11
Carson 10
-------
Rubio 9
Bush 7
Christie 3
Huckabee 3
Paul 2
Kasich 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +29

Bloomberg/Purple Strategies, released 27.01.2016:
1,021 RLV, MoE = +/-3.1

Trump 34
Rubio 14
Cruz 12
-------
Carson 9
Bush 7
Kasich 4
Paul 3
Huckabee 3
Christie 2
Fiorina 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +20

The Bloomberg Poll asked some very pointed questions, worth looking at. The questions were aimed at either Trump voters or non-Trump voters. I am referring only to the GOP electorate, here:





I would say that the very last question would be a point of disturbance for the GOP 'establishment', when almost 2/3 of Trump supporters say they would for him as an Independent, this would surely fracture the GOP and guarantee a Democratic Party victory in November.

NRRI (National Public Religion Institute), released 27.01.2016:
1,009 Adults, MoE = +/-3.6
of them, 381 religious RRV, MoE = not listed, likely +/-5.5


Margin: Trump +19

IBD/TIPP, released 28.01.2016:
904 Adults, MoE = +/-3.3
of them, 395 RRV, MoE = not listed

Trump 31
Cruz 21
(still undecided 12)
Rubio 10
-------
Carson 9
Bush 5
Paul 4
Fiorina 2
Kasich 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +10

YouGov, released 31.01.2016:
Survey size and MoE = not yet listed



Margin: Trump +25


GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Alaska:

Ivan Moore / Alaska Dispatch, released 23.01.2016:
651 RV, MoE = not listed
of them, 310 RRV, MoE = not listed, must be at least +/-5.5




Margin: Trump +4.1



Arizona:

MBQF Consulting, released 21.01.2016:
771 RLV, MoE = +/-3.53

Trump 38.3
Cruz 15.6
Rubio 11.4
-------
Carson 7.1
Bush 7.0
Christie 3.1
Fiorina 2.9
Kasich 2.9
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +22.7


Florida:

Opinion Savvy / Florida Times-Union / Fox 13 Tampa Bay, released 18.01.2016:
838 RLV, MoE = +/-3.3

Trump 31.2
Cruz 18.9
Bush 12.4
Rubio 12.3
-------
Carson 6.8
Christie 4.4
Fiorina 4.1
Kasich 3.2
Paul 3.0
Huckabee 1.8

Margin: Trump +12.3

Also, a theoretical 5-way race:

Trump 35.4
Cruz 19.5
Rubio 17.5
Bush 14.1
Carson 8.6
Margin: Trump +15.9

According to the poll, the demographics of the GOP electorate in Georgia are 90% white and 82% over 45 years old. Also 51/49 F/M, which is a little surprising.

FAU (Florida Atlantic University), released 20.01.2016:
1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 385 RLV, MoE =

Trump 47.6
Cruz 16,3
Rubio 11.1
---------------------
Bush 9.5
Carson 3.3

Margin: Trump +30.3


CBS / YouGov, released 24.01.2016:
988 LV, MoE = +/-4.6

Trump 41
Cruz 22
Rubio 18
-------
Carson 5
Bush 4
Christie 2
Fiorina 2
Kasich 2

Margin: Trump +12.3


Georgia:

Opinion Savvy / Fox 5 Atlanta, released 18.01.2016:
803 RLV, MoE = +/-3.4

Trump 33.4
Cruz 23.4
-------
Rubio 8.2
Carson 7.3
Bush 7.1
Kasich 3.8
Christie 3.7
Fiorina 3.5
Paul 3.5
Huckabee 3.2

Margin: Trump +10.0

Also, a theoretical 5-way race:

Trump 36.8
Cruz 26.3
Rubio 14.7
Bush 9.3
Carson 9.2
Margin: Trump +10.5

According to the poll, the demographics of the GOP electorate in Georgia are 97% white and 77% over 45 years old. Also 51/49 F/M, which is a little surprising.

CBS / YouGov, released 24.01.2016:
494 RLV, MoE = +/-6.2

Trump 39
Cruz 29
Rubio 13
-------
Carson 6
Bush 2
Kasich 2
Christie 2
Fiorina 2
Huckabee 2

Margin: Trump +10

Idaho:

Dan Jones and Associates / Idaho Politics, released 18.01.2016 (conducted 17-29.12.2015):
604 RV, MoE = +/-3.99

Trump 30
Carson 19
Cruz 16
Rubio 10
-------
all others in "single digits"

Margin: Trump +11



Illinois:

Overtime Politics, released 18.01.2016:
406 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 36
Rubio 16
Cruz 15
-------
Bush 5
Carson 5
Kasich 5
Fiorina 5
Christie 3
Paul 3

Margin: Trump +20


Iowa:

Monmouth College / KBUR / Douglas Fulmer & Associates, released 21.01.2016:
687 RLV, MoE = +/-3.7

Cruz 27
Trump 25
Carson 11
-------
Rubio 9
Bush 7
Huckabee 4
Christie 4
Fiorina 3
Kasich 3
Paul 3

Margin: Cruz +2

Loras College, released 21.01.2016:
Toplines and crosstabs releases 22.01.2016
500 RLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 26.4
Cruz 24.8
Rubio 12.8
-------
Carson 8.2
Bush 5.8
Kasich 3.6
Huckabee 3.2
Christie 2.8
Paul 2.8
Fiorina 1.6

Margin: Trump +1.6

CNN/ORC, released 21.01.2016:
2,002 Adults, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 266 RLV, MoE = +/-6.0

Trump 37
Cruz 26
Rubio 14
-------
Carson 6
Bush 3
Huckabee 3
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +11

Emerson College, released 21.01.2016:
271 LRV, MoE = +/-5.9 
The link to the raw data, which induces a download, is HERE. When downloaded, the file has no ending, is however an .xlxs (Excel) file.

Trump 33.1
Cruz 22.8
Rubio 14
-------
Carson 9.1
Christie 5.4
Bush 5.1
Kasich 2.9
Paul 2.7
Fiorina 2.1
Huckabee 1.7

Margin: Trump +10.3

ARG, released, 25.01.2016:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 33
Cruz 26
Rubio 11
-------
Carson 7
Christie 4
Paul 4
Bush 3
Kasich 3
Huckabee 2


Margin: Trump +7

FOX News Poll, released 25.01.2016:
423 DLV, MoE = +/-4.5

Trump 34
Cruz 23
Rubio 12
-------
Carson 7
Paul 6
Christie 4
Bush 4
Kasich 2
Huckabee 2
Santorum 2
(Fiorina 1)

Margin: Trump +11


Quinnipiac, released 26.01.2016:
651 RLV, MoE = +/-3.8

Trump 31
Cruz 29
Rubio 13
-------
Carson 7
Paul 5
Bush 4
Christie 2
Huckabee 2

Margin: Trump +2 (statistical tie)

The internals are very telling, especially with a race this close:


Iowa State/WHO-HD, released 26.01.2016:
722 DRV, MoE = +/-3.5
Of them, 283 RLV

Cruz 25.8
Trump 18.9
Carson 13.4
Rubio 12.3
-------
Paul 6.9
Bush 3.8
Huckabee 3.7
all others 1 or less

Margin: Cruz +6.9

The interesting thing about the Iowa State/WHO-HD poll is that it used exactly the same survey group of people that it interviewed in November - a takeway from the Rand-polling book.

Monmouth University, released 27.01.2016:
500 RLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 30
Cruz 23
Rubio 16
Carson 10
-------
Bush 4
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
Paul 3
Christie 2
Fiorina 2

Margin: Trump +7

Monmouth posted a HUGE caveat to this poll, indicating that they are projecting a massive turnout for the caucuses this time around, but look what happens when the turnout is not what they project:


NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 28.01.2016:
2.719 RV, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 450 RLV, MoE = +/-4.6


Margin: Trump +7

PPP (D), released 28.01.2016:
780 RLV, MoE =+/-3.5

Trump 31
Cruz 23
Rubio 14
-------
Carson 9
Bush 4
Huckabee 4
Paul 4
Fiorina 3
Christie 2
Kasich 3

Margin: Trump +8

Hypothetical 3-and-2-way matches:

Trump 36
Cruz 31
Rubio 25
Margin: Trump +5

Cruz 47
Trump 40
(not sure 13)
Margin: Cruz +7

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 29.01.2016:
1,827 LV, MoE = +/-2.0
Of them, 724 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0



Margin: Trump +4
xxx

Maryland:


Gonzales Research, released 19.01.2016:
809 RV, MoE = +/-3.5

of them, 301 RLV, MoE = +/-5.8





Margin: Trump +16.9

Des Moines Register / Bloomberg, released 30.01.2016:
602 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 28
Cruz 23
Rubio 15
Carson 10
-------
Paul 5
Christie 3
Bush 2
Huckabee 2
Fiorina 2
Kasich 2
Santorum 2

Margin: Trump +5

Opinion Savvy, released 31.01.2016:
887 RLV, MoE = +/-3.2

Trump 20.1
Cruz 19.4
Rubio 18.6
-------
Carson 9.0
Paul 8.6
Bush 4.9
Huckabee 4.4
Kasich 4.0
Fiorina 3.8
Christie 3.0
Santorum 2.1

Margin: Trump +0.7 (statistical tie, three-way tie)

Emerson College, released 31.01.2016:
598 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 298 RLV, MoE = +/-5.6

Trump 27.3
Cruz 25.6
Rubio 21.6
-------
Huckabee 4.7
Bush 3.8
Kasich 3.8
Paul 3.4
Carson 3.4
Christie 3.2
Fiorina 1.7

Margin: Trump +1.8 (statistical tie, three-way tie)

Michigan:

FOX 2 / Mitchell, released 29.01.2016:
493 RLV, MoE = +/-4.91



Margin: Trump +36


Minnesota:

Overtime Politics, released 20.01.2016:
396 RLV, MoE = +/-5.1

Trump 37
Rubio 20
Cruz 11
Carson 10
-------
Cruz 9
Bush 8
Kasich 3
Fiorina 2
Christie 2
Paul 2

Margin: Trump +17


Mason-Dixon / Star Tribune, released 24.01.2016:
800 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 236 RRV, MoE = +/-6.5

Rubio 23
Cruz 21
Trump 18
Carson 11
-------
Bush 7
Christie 5
others: not listed, perhaps not polled

Margin: Rubio +2 (statistical tie with Cruz)

xxx

New Hampshire:

ARG, released 19.01.2016:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 27
Kasich 20
Rubio 10
-------
Cruz 9
Christie 9
Bush 8
Paul 5
Carson 2
Fiorina 2

Margin: Trump +7

Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 20.01.2016;
1,197 RV, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 689 RLV, MoE = +/-3.7




Margin: Trump +20

CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 20.01.2016: 
974 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 414 RLV, MoE = +/-4.8

Trump 34
Cruz 14
Rubio 10
Bush 10
-------
Christie 6
Paul 6
Kasich 6
Fiorina 4
Carson 3

Margin: Trump +20

Franklin Pierce University / Boston Herald, released 25.01.2016:
444 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 33
Cruz 14
Kasich 12
-------
Bush 9
Rubio 8
Christie 7
Fiorina 5
Carson 4
Paul 3

Margin: Trump +19


FOX News poll, released 25.01.2016:
400 FLV, MoE = +/-5.0




Margin: Trump +17

ARG, released 26.01.2016:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 31
Kasich 17
Cruz 12
-------
Rubio 9
Bush 8
Christie 8
Fiorina 3
Carson 3
Paul 2

Margin: Trump +14

Emerson College, released 27.01.2016:
737 RRV, MoE = +/-3.6
of them, 373 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 35
Bush 18
Kasich 14
-------
Rubio 9
Cruz 8
Christie 5
Fiorina 3
Carson 3
Paul 3

Margin: Trump +17

This was an interesting detail from the poll:



Mason-Dixon/AARP, released 27.01.2016 (but taken from 12-16.01.2016):
1.004 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 503 RLV, MoE = not listed, likely +/-5.0

Trump 32
Rubio 14
Kasich 13
Christie 10
-------
Bush 9
Cruz 8
Fiorina 6
Carson 2
Paul 2

Margin: Trump +18


NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 28.01.2016:
2,258 RV, MoE = +/-2.1
of them, 612 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0


Margin: Trump +19


Suffolk University, released 28.01.2016:
500 RLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 26.6
Kasich 12.0
Cruz 11.8
Bush 11.2
-------
Rubio 9.6
Christie 5.6
Carson 4.8
Fiorina 4.0
Paul 1.6

Margin: Trump +14.4


Remember, this survey group is of Republican voters only, so it's no surprise that Trump is getting at least 63% of the GOP vote. Against Hillary, she gets 10% of the GOP vote. That's pretty standard. But against Sanders, Sanders gets 18% of the GOP vote. Now, that is a major data point and shows that New Hampshire, a once GOP bastion, then a real battleground state, has moved bluer and bluer.

Franklin Pierce U / Boston Herald, released 31.01.2016:
439 RLV, MoE = +/-4.7

Trump 38
Cruz 13
Rubio 10
Bush 10
-------
Kasich 8
Christie 5
Fiorina 5
Paul 5
Carson 3

Margin: Trump +25

CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 31.01.2016:
409 RLV, MoE = +/-4.8

Trump 30
Cruz 12
Rubio 11
-------
Kasich 9
Christie 8
Bush 6
Fiorina 4
Paul 3
Carson 3

Margin: Trump +18

North Carolina:

PPP (D), released 20.01.2016:
948 RV, MoE = +/-3.2

of them, 433 RLV, MoE = +/-4.7

Trump 38
Cruz 16
Rubio 11
-------
Carson 8
Bush 6
Huckabee 6
Christie 4
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Kasich 2

Margin: Trump +22

Hypothetical 4- ,3- and 2-way races:

Trump 41
Cruz 24
Rubio 15
Bush 13
Margin: Trump +17

Trump 43
Cruz 27
Rubio 18
Margin: Trump +16

Cruz 42
Rubio 23
Bush 17
Margin: Cruz +19

Trump 59 / Bush 29, margin = Trump +30
Trump 49 / Cruz 41, margin = Trump +8
Trump 52 / Rubio 37, margin = Trump +15
Cruz 47 / Rubio 32, margin = Trump +15

As far as the Cruz-birther thing goes, PPP asked NC GOPers some questions and these internals are interesting:


First, that only 24% of NC Republicans think that President Obama was born in the USA means that birtherism is alive and well. Obama was born in Hawaii, which had become a US-state.  On the other hand, in a show of some shocking ignorance, 27% of NC GOPers think that Cruz was born in the USA, when he was verifiably not. Now, it could just be that they did not read the question, which may make it somewhat moot. But that 31% of NC GOPers are less likely to vote for him because he was indeed born in Canada, now that is interesting. The point is that birtherism, which has found a hotbed of support within the extreme conservative wing of the GOP, is having a hard time arguing away Ted Cruz's eligibility, since it made this very argument against Obama for 8 years now.


Civitas (R), released 21.01.2016:
500 RLV, MoE = +/-4.38

Trump 27
Cruz 23
"no preference" 11
Rubio 10
-------
Carson 7
Bush 4
Christie 4
Huckabee 2
Fiorina 2
Paul 2
Kasich 2

Margin: Trump +4

Overtime Politics, released 25.01.2016:
410 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 34
Cruz 25
Rubio 13
-------
Bush 7
Carson 6
Paul 3
Kasich 1
others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +9

Pennsylvania:

Franklin and Marshall, released 28.01.2016:
732 RV, MoE = +/-3.6
of them, 276 RRV, MoE = not listed

Trump 24
Cruz 14
Rubio 11
-------
Carson 5
Bush 5
Christie 5
Kasich 3
Huckabee 2
Fiorina 2
Paul 2

Margin: Trump +10

South Carolina:

Opinion Savvy / Augusta Chronicle, released 16.01.2016:
683 RLV, MoE = +/- 3.7

Trump 31.8
Cruz 17.6
Bush 13.2
Rubio 11.2
-------
Carson 9.3
Christie 3.9
Fiorina 2.7
Kasich 2.5
Paul 2.4
Huckabee 1.9

Margin: Trump +14.2

Also, a theoretical 5-way race:

Trump 34.5
Cruz 19.0
Rubio 16.1
Bush 14.7
Carson 10.2
Margin: Trump +15.5

Also, some demographics from the poll: 




According to the poll, the SC GOP electorate is 98% White, 76% over the age of 45 and 50/50 M/F.



CBS / YouGov, released 24.01.2016:
1,370 RV, MoE = +/-5.3

Trump 40
Cruz 21
Rubio 13
-------
Carson 9
Bush 8
Paul 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2

Margin: Trump +19

NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 28.01.2016:
2,340 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 718 RLV, MoE = +/-3.7




Margin: Trump +16

Texas:

CBS / YouGov, released 24.01.2016:
984 RLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Cruz 45
Trump 30
-------
Rubio 8
Carson 5
Bush 4
Paul 2
Christie 2

Margin: Cruz +15

Utah:

SUSA / Salt Lake Tribune, released 17.01.2016:
989 RV, MoE = +/-3.2
of them, xxx RRV, MoE = +/-4.9







Margin: Cruz +1 (statistical tie)


Wisconsin:

Marquette Law School, released 28.01.2016:
806 RV, MoE = +/-4.0
of them, 313 RLV, MoE = +/-6.5

Trump 24
Rubio 18
Cruz 16
-------
Carson 8
Christie 5
Paul 3
Fiorina 3
Bush 2
Kasich 2


Margin: Trump +6

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