18 January 2016

2016 polling round-up, 15-31.01.2016: D-vs-R Presidential Matchups

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING

NBC/WSJ, released 17.01.2016:
800 RV, MoE = +/-3.5

Clinton 47 / Rubio 46, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 49 / Cruz 45, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 51 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +10

Sanders 54 / Trump 39, margin = Sanders +15

Morning Consult (R), released 19.01.2016:
4,026 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,805 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 42 / Carson 42, margin = TIE
Clinton 43 / Cruz 41, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 43 / Rubio 41, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 44 / Trump 42, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 43 / Bush 39, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 43 / Christie 39, margin = Clinton +4


Morning Consult (R), released 21.01.2016: (special poll series)
4.060 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 36 / Trump 37 / Bloomberg 13, margin = Trump +1
Clinton 38 / Cruz 34 / Bloomberg 12, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 38 / Cruz 33 / Bloomberg 11, margin = Clinton +5

-and-

Morning Consult (R), released 24.01.2016: (special poll series)
1,439 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Sanders 35 / Trump 34 / Bloomberg 12, margin = Sanders +1
Sanders 36 / Rubio 29 / Bloomberg 10, margin = Sanders +7
Sanders 36 / Cruz 28 / Bloomberg 11, margin = Sanders +8

Morning Consult (R), released 26.01.2016:
4,001 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,797 DRV

Clinton 44 / Carson 39, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 44 / Rubio 39, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 44 / Bush 38, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 45 / Trump 39, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 45 / Cruz 38, margin = = Clinton +7
Clinton 44 / Christie 36, margin = Clinton +8

Zogby Analytics, released 27.01.2016:
843 LV, MoE = +/-3.4

Clinton 45 / Trump 45, margin = TIE
Clinton 44 / Carson 40, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 44 / Christie 40, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 44 / Bush 39, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 44 / Kasich 38, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 45 / Rubio 39, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 45 / Fiorina 37, margin = Clinton +8

Sanders 46 / Trump 45, margin = Sanders +1
Sanders 44 / Rubio 37, margin = Sanders +7
Sanders 44 / Christie 37, margin = Sanders +7
Sanders 44 / Carson 35, margin = Sanders +9
Sanders 46 / Kasich 32, margin = Sanders +14
Sanders 47 / Fiorina 33, margin = Sanders +14

IPSOS/Reuters special poll, released 28.01.2016:
1,673 Adults, MoE = +/-2.7

Sanders 42 / Trump 30, margin = Sanders +12
Sanders 37 / Trump 30 / Bloomberg 8, margin = Sanders +7

Clinton 37 / Trump 31 / Bloomberg 9, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 38 / Cruz 25 / Bloomberg 10, margin = Clinton +6


D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING

Florida:

FAU (Florida Atlantic University), released 20.01.2016:
1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 41.5 / Bush 45, margin = Bush +3.5
Clinton 44.3Trump 47, margin = Trump +2.7
Clinton 46 / Rubio 46, margin = TIE
Clinton 47.2 / Cruz 42.3, margin = Clinton +4.9

Sanders 41.6Rubio 47.1, margin = Rubio +5.5
Sanders 42.3Trump 47.1, margin = Trump +4.8
Sanders 43.3 / Cruz 43.2, margin = Sanders +0.1 (statistical absolute tie, near mathematical absolute tie)

Idaho:

Dan Jones and Associates / Idaho Politics, released 18.01.2016 (conducted 17-29.12.2015):
604 RV, MoE = +/-3.99

Clinton 23 / Carson 45, margin = Carson +22
Clinton 24 / Cruz 46,  margin = Cruz +22
Clinton 25 / Trump 45, margin = Trump +20
Clinton 24 / Bush 42, margin = Bush +18


Michigan:

FOX 2 / Mitchell, released 29.01.2016:
circa 840 LV, MoE = not listed

only one matchup:



Margin: Trump +3



Minnesota:

Mason-Dixon / Star Tribune, released 24.01.2016:
800 RV, MoE = +/-3.5

Clinton 40 / Rubio 49,  margin = Rubio +9
Clinton 43 / Cruz 45,  margin = Cruz +2
Clinton 43 / Trump 38, margin = Clinton +5

Sanders 53 / Trump 37, margin = Sanders +16

Lots of noise being made about how well Trump is doing in the Democratic vote. Well, in Minnesota, in a poll taken by a hard right leaning pollster, he gets 5% of the D vote (and only 2% of the D vote against Sanders), which is under par. Cruz gets 6% of the D vote. Rubio gets 8% of the D vote but swamps Clinton with the Independents.

New Hampshire:

CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 20.01.2016: 
974 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 885 LV, MoE = +/-3.5


Clinton 44 Rubio 45, margin = Rubio +1
Clinton 43 / Kasich 43, margin = TIE
Clinton 45 / Christie 42, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 47 / Cruz 41, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 48 / Trump 39, margin = Clinton +9

Sanders 55 / Rubio 37, margin = Sanders +18
Sanders 54 / Kasich 33, margin = Sanders +21
Sanders 56 / Cruz 33, margin = Sanders +23
Sanders 57 / Christie 34, margin = Sanders +23
Sanders 57 / Trump 34, margin = Sanders +23

According to this poll, Sanders is truly landsliding in New Hampshire with crushing margins, but outside of the margin against Rubio, Clinton is holding the same values that Obama had in 2008 and in 2012.


Emerson College, released 27.01.2016:
737 RRV, MoE = +/-3.6

Clinton 39 / Trump 36 / Bloomberg 12, margin = Clinton +3

Sanders 44 / Trump 33 / Bloomberg 11, margin = Sanders +11

North Carolina:

PPP (D), released 20.01.2016:
948 RV, MoE = +/-3.2

Clinton 42 Rubio 47,  margin = Rubio +5
Clinton 44 / Carson 47, margin = Carson +3
Clinton 43 / Cruz 46, margin = Cruz +3
Clinton 43 / Bush 45, margin = Bush +2
Clinton 43 / Trump 45, margin = Trump +2

Sanders 38 / Cruz 43, margin = Cruz +5
Sanders 39 Rubio 43, margin = Rubio +4
Sanders 40 / Carson 44, margin = Carson +4
Sanders 41 / Bush 42, margin = Bush +1
Sanders 41 / Trump 42, margin = Trump +1

Clinton 40 / Trump 41 / Bloomberg 10, margin = Trump +1
Clinton 40 / Trump 42 / Webb 5, margin = Trump +2
also two 3-way matchups against fictive names: DeezNuts and Bug the Cat. I don't do imaginary matchups.

Utah:

Utah Policy Poll / Dan Jones and Associates, released 16.01.2016:
622 RV, MoE = +/-3.93

Clinton 23 / Carson 52 / other 21, margin = Carson +29
Clinton 21 / Rubio 48 / other 25, margin = Rubio +27
Clinton 22 / Bush 47 / other 27, margin = Bush +25
Clinton 28 / Trump 33 / other 33, margin = Trump +5

Wisconsin:

Marquette Law School, released 28.01.2016:
806 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 45 / Rubio 44, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 45 / Cruz 44, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 47 / Trump 38, margin = Clinton +9

Sanders 49 / Rubio 38, margin = Sanders +11
Sanders 50 / Cruz 38, margin = Sanders +12
Sanders 52 / Trump 34, margin = Sanders +18



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