18 January 2016

2016 polling round-up, 15-31.01.2016: DEM Nomination

DEM NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING

The Economist / YouGov, released 16.01.2016:
620 DRV, MoE = +/-4-2

Clinton 58
Sanders 33
O'Malley 3

Margin: Clinton +25

NBC/WSJ, released 17.01.2016:
400 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 59
Sanders 34
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +25

Monmouth University, released 19.01.2016:



Margin: Clinton +15

NBC News, Survey Monkey, released 19.01.2016:
10,320 RV, MoE = +/-1.3
of them, 3,259 DRV, MoE = +/-2.2

Clinton 52
Sanders 36
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +16

Morning Consult (R), released 19.01.2016:
4,026 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,805 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 54
Sanders 30
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +24


The Economist / You Gov, released 19.01.2016 (conducted 09-11.01.2016):
620 DLV, MoE = +/-4.2

Clinton 58
Sanders 33
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +25

The Economist / YouGov, released 21.01.2016:
533 DLV, MoE = at least +/-4.0

Clinton 50
Sanders 41
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +9

IPSOS-Reuters, released 22.01.2016:
1,561 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 588 RRV, MoE = +/-4.6



Margin = Clinton +11 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +19 (DRV only), Sanders +9 (IRV, D-leaning only)

The overall poll results remain static over the last IPSOS-Reuters poll, but the Democratic leaning independents have moved more toward Sanders.

Zogby Analytics, released 24.01.2016:
373 DLV, MoE = +/-5.2

Clinton 49
Sanders 27
O'Malley 10

Margin: Clinton +22

There was some interesting information in the article, worth sharing:

Clinton is solid among Democrats (61% to 22% for Sanders and only 7% for O’Malley), but the tables are turned among independents with Sanders leading at 45% to Clinton’s 20% and O’Malley’s 13%. Liberals support Clinton 62% to 25% over Sanders and 7% for O’Malley. She also has strong support among self-described moderates (45% to 32% for Sanders and 7% for O’Malley). About one in five voters in this sample described themselves as “conservative” and the results were interesting: 32% Clinton, 23% O’Malley and 20% Sanders.

Clinton maintains an eight point advantage over Sanders among white Democrats (41% to 33% for Sanders to 9% for O’Malley), and just an eigh point advantage among Hispanics (40% to 32% for Sanders and 20% for O’Malley). But she continues to be bolstered by deep support among African American voters: 72% to only 13% for Sanders and just 2% for O’Malley. African Americans represented 22% of the sample.


FOX News, released 25.01.2016:
375 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0 (I question this value, it should be higher, likely +/-6.0)

Clinton 49
Sanders 37
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +12


CNN/ORC, released 25.01.2016:
907 RV, MoE = +/-3.5

Clinton 52
Sanders 38
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +14


NBC News / Survey Monkey, released 26.01.2016:
8,215 RV, MoE = +/-1.3

of them, 2,780 DRV, MoE = +/- 2.2

Clinton 51
Sanders 37
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +14

Morning Consult (R), released 26.01.2016:
4,001 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,797 DRV

Clinton 48
Sanders 31
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +17

ABC/WAPO, released 27.01.2016:
1,001 Adults, MoE = +/-3.5
406 DLV, MoE = +/-5.5

Clinton 55
Sanders 36
O'Malley 4

Margin: Clinton +19

NRRI (National Public Religion Institute), released 27.01.2016:
1,009 Adults, MoE = +/-3.6
of them, 463 religious DRV, MoE = not listed, likely +/-5.0


Margin: Clinton +20

IBD/TIPP, released 28.01.2016:
904 Adults, MoE = +/-3.3
of them, 349 DRV, MoE = not listed

Clinton 50
Sanders 38
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +12


YouGov, released 31.01.2016:
Survey size and MoE = not yet listed



Margin: Clinton +12


DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Alaska:

Ivan Moore / Alaska Dispatch, released 23.01.2016:
651 RV, MoE = not listed
of them, 273 DRV, MoE = not listed, must be at least +/-6.0


Margin: Clinton +3.1

Florida:

FAU (Florida Atlantic University), released 20.01.2016:
1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 383 DLV, MoE =

Clinton 62.2
Sanders 25.9
O'Malley 3.9

Margin: Clinton +36.3

Idaho:

Dan Jones and Associates / Idaho Politics, released 18.01.2016 (conducted 17-29.12.2015):
604 RV, MoE = +/-3.99

Clinton 44
Sanders 41
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +3

Illinois:

Overtime Politics, released 18.01.2016:
414 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 51
Sanders 40
O'Malley 5

Margin: Clinton +11

Iowa:

Monmouth College / KBUR / Douglas Fulmer & Associates, released 21.01.2016:
570 DLV, MoE = +/-4.1

Clinton 48
Sanders 39
O'Malley 7


Margin: Clinton +9


CNN/ORC, released 21.01.2016:
2,002 Adults, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 280 DLV, MoE = +/-6.0

Sanders 51
Clinton 43
O'Malley 4

Margin: Sanders +8

Emerson College, released 21.01.2016:
271 LRV, MoE = +/-5.9 
The link to the raw data, which induces a download, is HERE. When downloaded, the file has no ending, is however an .xlxs (Excel) file.

Clinton 51.8
Sanders 42.5
O'Malley 2.9

Margin: Clinton +9.3

Loras College, released 22.01.2016:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 500 DLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 58.6
Sanders 29.8
O'Malley 6.8


Margin: Clinton +28.8

This internal is interesting:



Mason-Dixon / AARP, released 22.01.2016:
1,007 LV, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 503 "Democratic Caucus Goers", MoE not listed, likely +/-5.0

Clinton 49
Sanders 42
O'Malley 5

Margin: Clinton +7


CBS/YouGov, released 24.01.2016:
1,247 RV, MoE = +/-5.2

of them, 492 RLV

Sanders 47
Clinton 46
O'Malley 5

Margin: Sanders +1

ARG, released 25.01.2016:
400 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Sanders 48
Clinton 45
O'Malley 3

Margin: Sanders +3

FOX News Poll, released 25.01.2016:
423 DLV, MoE = +/-4.5

Clinton 48
Sanders 42
O'Malley 3

Margin: Clinton +6

Iowa State/WHO-HD, released 26.01.2016:
722 DRV, MoE = +/-3.5
Of them, 356 DLV

Clinton 47
Sanders 45
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +2

The interesting thing about the Iowa State/WHO-HD poll is that it used exactly the same survey group of people that it interviewed in November - a takeway from the Rand-polling book.

Quinnipiac, released 27.01.2016:
600 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Sanders 49
Clinton 45
O'Malley 4

Margin: Sanders +4

NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 28.01.2016:
2.719 RV, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 427 DLV, MoE = +/-4.7



Margin: Clinton +3


Monmouth University, released 28.01.2016:
504 DLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 47
Sanders 42
O'Malley 6

Margin: Clinton +5

This is an interesting internal from the poll:




PPP (D) / Progress Iowa, released 29.01.2016:
851 DLV, MoE = +/-3.4

Clinton 48
Sanders 40
O'Malley 7

Margin: Clinton +8

Some interesting internals from the poll:


Gravis (R) / OANN, released 29.01.2016:
1,827 LV, MoE = +/-2.0
Of them, 810 DLV, MoE = +/-3.0



Margin: Clinton +9

Des Moines Register / Bloomberg, released 30.01.2016:
602 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 45
Sanders 42
O'Malley 3

Margin: Clinton +3

Emerson College, released 31.01.2016:
598 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 298 RLV, MoE = +/-5.6

Clinton 50.6
Sanders 42.6
O'Malley 4.1

Margin: Clinton +8.0



Maryland:

Gonzales Research, released 19.01.2016:
809 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 402 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 40.3
Sanders 27.1
O'Malley 4.5

Margin: Clinton +13.2

In  his own home-state, former Gov. Martin O'Malley is not even getting any traction. I would say his days in the primaries are numbered.

Also, the demographics behind these numbers are interesting, to say the least:


Michigan:

FOX 2 / Mitchell, released 29.01.2016:
344 DLV, MoE = +/-5.28

Clinton 61
Sanders 34
O'Malley 4

Margin: Clinton +27

Minnesota:

Overtime Politics, released 20.01.2016:
406 DLV, MoE = +/-5.1

Clinton 48
Sanders 45
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +3

Mason-Dixon / Star Tribune, released 24.01.2016:
800 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 307 DRV, MoE = not listed, likely +/-6.5

Clinton 59
Sanders 25
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +24


New Hampshire:

ARG, released 19.01.2016:
600 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Sanders 49
Clinton 43
O'Malley 3


Margin: Sanders +6

CNN / UNH / WMUR, released 19.01.2016:
420 DLV, MoE = +/-4.8

Sanders 60
Clinton 33
O'Malley 1

Margin: Sanders +27

The poll indicates that 48% of NH Democratic voters are undecided. This is a huge margin jump for Bernie Sanders.  Also, this internal is worth looking at:



Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 20.01.2016;
1,197 RV, MoE = +/-2.8

of them, 689 RLV, MoE = +/-3.7


Margin: Sanders +3

Suffolk University, released 22.01.2016:
500 DLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Sanders 50.0
Clinton 41.4
O'Malley 1.8

Margin: Sanders +8.6

1,040 RV, MoE = +/-6.2
of them, 476 RLV

Sanders 57
Clinton 38
O'Malley 5

Margin: Sanders +19

Franklin Pierce University / Boston Herald, released 25.01.2016:
408 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Sanders 55
Clinton 39
O'Malley 2

Margin: Sanders +16


FOX News poll, released 25.01.2016:
400 FLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Sanders 56
Clinton 34
O'Malley 3

Margin: Sanders +22


ARG, released 26.01.2016:
600 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Sanders 49
Clinton 42
O'Malley 3

Margin: Sanders +7

Emerson College, released 27.01.2016:
737 RRV, MoE = +/-3.6
of them, 350 DLV, MoE = +/-5.2

Sanders 52
Clinton 44
O'Malley 3

Margin: Sanders +8


Mason-Dixon/AARP, released 27.01.2016 (but taken from 12-16.01.2016):
1.004 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 501 DLV, MoE = not listed, likely +/-5.0

Sanders 59
Clinton 33
O'Malley 4

Margin: Sanders +25

NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 28.01.2016:
2,258 RV, MoE = +/-2.1
of them, 568 DLV, MoE = +/-4.1



Margin: Sanders +19



Franklin Pierce U / Boston Herald, released 31.01.2016:
409 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Sanders 57
Clinton 37
O'Malley 2

Margin: Sanders +20

CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 31.01.2016:
347 DLV, MoE = +/-5.3

Sanders 57
Clinton 34
O'Malley 1

Margin: Sanders +23

North Carolina:

PPP (D), released 20.01.2016:
948 RV, MoE = +/-3.2
of them, 461 DLV, MoE = +/-4.6

Clinton 59
Sanders 26
O'Malley 5

Margin: Clinton +33

Civitas (R), released 27.01.2016:
500 DLV, MoE = +/-4.38

Clinton 53
Sanders 28
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +25

Overtime Politics, released 25.01.2016:
407 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 63
Sanders 28
O'Malley 4

Margin: Clinton +35

Ohio:

PPP (D), for the Ohio Democratic Party, released 19.01.2016:
1,138 DLV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 53
Sanders 37

Margin: Clinton +16

Just to remind, in 2008, Clinton won the Ohio primary against Obama by between 8-9 points and she won every county. A +16 pretty much guarantees the same, and Ohio is a WTA state in the primaries. When you look at the demographics of the Ohio Democratic electorate, at least as recorded by PPP, you can see why Sanders has no chance in the Buckeye State:


34% of Ohio Democrats consider themselves to be moderate and 9% are Conservative Democrats. That's a higher percentage than you will find in the NE. The racial demographics are unbalanced. About 22% of Ohio DEMS are usually Black voters, not just 18% -  this is going to help Hillary come primary time on March 15th.

Overtime Politics, released 29.01.2016:
416 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 51
Sanders 46
O'Malley 3

Margin: Clinton +5

Pennsylvania:

Franklin and Marshall, released 28.01.2016:
732 RV, MoE = +/-3.6
of them, 361 DRV, MoE = not listed

Clinton 46
Sanders 29
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +16


South Carolina:

CBS / YouGov, released 24.01.2016:
1,370 RV, MoE = +/-5.3

Clinton 50
Sanders 40
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +10


NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 28.01.2016:
2,340 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 446 DLV, MoE = +/-4.6



Margin: Clinton +37


Utah:

SUSA / Salt Lake Tribune, released 17.01.2016:
989 RV, MoE = +/-3.2
of them, xxx DRV, MoE = +/-7.2

Clinton 60
Sanders 38
O'Malley 0

Margin: Clinton +22

Wisconsin:

Marquette Law School, released 28.01.2016:
806 RV, MoE = +/-4.0
of them, 312 DLV, MoE = +/-6.5

Clinton 45
Sanders 43
O'Malley 1


Margin: Clinton +2

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