05 January 2016

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.01.2016: GOP Nomination

Welcome to 2016!



GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING

NBC News / SurveyMonkey, released 05.01.2016:
3,700 adults, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 949 RRV, MoE = +/-3.7

Trump 35
Cruz 18
Rubio 13
--------------
Carson 9
Bush 6
Christie 4
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2

Margin: Trump +17

Reuters tracking polling, released 06.01.2016:



Margin: Trump +33.4


IPSOS/Reuters core-approval poll, released 07.01.2016:
1,754 Adults, MoE = +/-2.7
of them, 634 RRV, MoE = +/-4.4



Margin =  Trump +19 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +26 (RRV only), Trump +9 (IRV, R-leaning only)

FOX News Poll, released 08.01.2016:
1,006 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 423 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 35
Cruz 20
Rubio 15
Carson 10
--------------
Bush 4
Fiorina 3
Christie 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2

Margin: Trump +15

The Economist / YouGov, released 08.01.2016:
2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 469 RLV

Trump 36
Cruz 19
Rubio 13
--------------
Carson 6
Paul 5
Bush 4
Kasich 4
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +17

IDB/TIPP, released 09.01.2016:
967 Adults, MoE = +/-3.2
of them, 389 RRV

Trump 34
Cruz 18
(undecided 11)
--------------
Rubio 9
Carson 8
Bush 4
Christie 4
Paul 3
Fiorina 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +16


Gravis (R) / OANN, released 12.01.2016:
2,416 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 832 RLV, MoE = +/-3.4



Margin: Trump +21


NBC News / SurveyMonkey, released 12.01.2016:
9,476 Adults, MoE = +/-1.4
of them, 2,852 DRV, MoE = +/-2.4

Trump 38
Cruz 20
Rubio 11
--------------
Carson 9
Bush 3
Christie 3
Paul 3
Fiorina 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +18

CBS/NYT, released 12.01.2016:
1,276 Adults, MoE =
of them, 442 RLV, MoE =

Trump 36
Cruz 19
Rubio 112
--------------
Carson 6
Bush 6
Huckabee 3
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +17


The Economist /YouGOV, released 13.01.2016:
522 RLV, MoE = +/-4.6

Trump 36
Cruz 20
Rubio 11
--------------
Carson 6
Bush 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 3
Paul 3
Fiorina 3
Kasich 3
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +16

Hypothetical 3-way:

Trump 45
Cruz 30
Rubio 21
Margin: Trump +15

Morning Consult (R), released 13.01.2016:
2,173 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 878 RRV, MoE =

Trump 42
Carson 12
Cruz 10
--------------
Rubio 9
Bush 5
Christie 4
Paul 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 1
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +30

IPSOS/Reuters, released 13.01.2016:
1,602 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 575 RRV, MoE = +/-4.7



Margin =  Trump +17 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +24 (RRV only), Trump +7 (IRV, R-leaning only)

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 15.01.2016 (post-debate poll):
1,693 RRV, MoE = +/-2.4


Margin: Trump +17

NBC / WSJ, released 14.01.2016:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 33
Cruz 20
Rubio 13
Carson 12
--------------
Bush 5
Christie 5
Paul 3
Fiorina 3
Kasich 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +13



GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

California:

Field Poll, released 05.01.2016:
1,003 RV, MoE = +/-3.2
of them, 325 RLV, MoE = +/-5.6



Margin: Cruz +2


Illinois:

Compass Consulting, LLC (R), released 01.04.2016 (taken 19-22.12.2015):
2,104 RLV, MoE = +/-2.5

Trump 31.1
Cruz 16.0
Rubio 13.4
undecided 11.3
--------------
Bush 6.7
Carson 6.4
Christie 5.9
Kasich 3.0
"other" 2.4
Fiorina 2.0
Paul 1.9

Margin: Trump +15.1

According to this poll's internal statistics, 86% of the GOP electorate is 46 years old or older, 61.8% is 55 or older. I bet that the pollster meant "45" where it wrote "46". I bet that that is a typo. 82% of Illinois Republicans agree (either strongly, or somewhat) to temporarily halting all Muslim immigration to the USA:



The poll does breakdowns by geography (which is in and of itself fascinating, in this case) and age, but not by race.

Iowa:

FOX News, released 08.12.2016:
504 RLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Cruz 27
Trump 23
Rubio 15
--------------
Carson 9
Bush 7
Paul 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Cruz +4

NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 10.01.2016:
2,821 RV, MoE = +/-1.8
of them, 456 RLV, MoE = +/-4.6

Cruz 28
Trump 24
Rubio 13
Carson 11
--------------
Paul 5
Bush 4
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Cruz +4

Quinnipiac, released, 11.01.2016:
602 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 31
Cruz 29
Rubio 15
--------------
Carson 7
Christie 4
Bush 3
Huckabee 3
Paul 2
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +2

ARG, released 11.01.2016:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 29
Cruz 25
Rubio 10
--------------
Carson 8
Christie 6
Paul 4
Bush 3
Kasich 3
Huckabee 2
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +4


PPP (D), released 12.01.2016:
1,901 RV, MoE = +/-2.3
of them, 530 RLV, MoE = +/-4.3

Trump 28
Cruz 26
Rubio 13
--------------
Carson 8
Bush 6
Christie 3
Paul 3
Fiorina 3
Kasich 3
Huckabee 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +2

Des Moines Register / Bloomberg / Selzer, released 13.01.2016:
3,391 Adults, MoE =
of them, 500 RLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Cruz 25
Trump 22
Rubio 12
Carson 11
--------------
Paul 5
Bush 4
Christie 3
Huckabee 3
Fiorina 2
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Cruz +3

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 13.01.2016:
422 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0



Margin: Trump +4

Mason-Dixon / AARP, released 22.01.2016:
1,007 LV, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 504 "Republican Caucus Goers", MoE not listed, likely +/-5.0

Cruz 31
Trump 24
Rubio 12
--------------
Carson 6
Bush 5
Christie 3
Paul 4
Fiorina 3
Kasich 3
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Cruz +7

Fox News poll, released 24.01.2016:
801 LV, MoE = not listed
of them, 378 RLV, MoE = +/- 5.0

Trump 34
Rubio 23
Cruz 12
--------------
Carson 7
Paul 6
Bush 4
Christie 4
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +11

CBS/YouGov, released 24.01.2016:
1,247 RV, MoE = +/-5.2
of them, 492 RLV

Trump 39
Rubio 34
Cruz 13
--------------
Carson 5
Paul 3
Christie 2
all others 1 or less, including Bush

Margin: Trump +5


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Michigan:

Overtime Politics, released 05.01.2015:*
396 RLV, MoE = not listed

Trump 33
Rubio 18
Cruz 17
--------------
Carson 7
Bush 5
Fiorina 3
Christie 3
Paul 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +15

*Overtime Politics is a new, small polling firm to which I have had email contact. The firm seems to be on the upper-up. What is missing is the MoE, which, using the Keneysian statistics, would have to be around +/-5.0 to +/-5.3 in this case. The poll also does breakdowns by gender, age, race and income group but unfortunately, does not give stats on exactly how much of the survey group each subgroup represents. I am hoping that they will add this stat as time goes on. The Trump lead I see here is absolutely in-line with polling elsewhere in the USA for the GOP nomination. I was a little surprised to not see Huckabee's name anywhere on the list.


New Hampshire:

America Leads (R), released 04.01.2016, taken 19-22.12.2015 for the Christie campaign:
500 RLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 29
Cruz 13
Christie 12
Rubio 12

--------------
Kasich 7
Bush 6
Paul 5
Fiorina 4
Carson 3

Margin: Trump +16

PPP (D), released 06.01.2016:
515 RLV, MoE = +/-4.3

Trump 29
Rubio 15
Christie 11
Kasich 11
Cruz 10
Bush 10
--------------
Carson 4
Fiorina 4
Paul 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +14

FOX News, released 08.01.2016:
800 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 414 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 33
Rubio 15
Cruz 12
--------------
Bush 9
Kasich 7
Christie 5
Paul 5
Carson 4
Fiorina 3

Margin: Trump +18

NH1 "Reach" Communications, released 08.01.2016:
1,000 RRV and IRV, MoE = +/-3.1
also, second round, only with 416 RRV, MoE = +/-4.8

Trump 31.7
Bush 11.9
Kasich 11.8
Christie 11.0
--------------
Cruz 9.7
Rubio 8.9
Fiorina 4.6
Carson 3.8
Paul 3.0
Santorum 2.6
Huckabee 1.0

Margin: Trump +19.8

Here is how their graphic looks:


Second round, only of RRV:

Trump 26.2
Bush 13.9
Rubio  11.8
Christie 11.5
Cruz 11.5
Kasich 10.3
--------------
Fiorina 5.0
Carson 4.8
Paul 2.2
Santorum 2.2
Huckabee 0.5

Margin: Trump +12.3

And here's how that graphic looks:


There are also stats for the race only among Independents, but that is crazy as more than just Independent voters will be voting in NH next month.

I think I remember one other poll from this small firm out of Manchester. Although the firm does not identify itself as a Republican firm, based on their input at their Facebook page, I would say that it is a Republican firm.

NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 10.01.2016:
1,888 RV, MoE = +/-2.3
of them, 887 RRV, MoE = +/-3.3

Trump 30
Rubio 14
Christie 12
Cruz 10
--------------
Bush 9
Kasich 9
Paul 5
Carson 4
Fiorina 3

Margin: Trump +16

ARG, released 11.01.2016:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 25
Rubio 14
Kasich 14
Christie 10
--------------
Cruz 9
Bush 8
Paul 4
Fiorina 3
Carson 2

Margin: Trump +11


Monmouth University, released 11.01.2016:
414 RLV, MoE = +/-4.8



Margin: Trump +18

Overtime Politics, released 14.01.2016:
392 RLV, MoE = +/-5.1

Trump 30
Kasich 15
Rubio 13
--------------
Christie 9
Cruz 9
Bush 6
Fiorina 5
Carson 4
Paul 2

Margin: Trump +15


Fox News Poll, released 24.01.2016:
801 LV, MoE = not listed
of them, 401 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 31
Cruz 14
Rubio 13
--------------
Kasich 9
Bush 7
Christie 7
Carson 5
Paul 5
Fiorina 3


Margin: Trump +17

CBS News / YouGov, released 24.01.2016:
1,040 RV, MoE = +/-6.2
of them, 476 RLV

Trump 34
Cruz 16
Rubio 14
Kasich 10
--------------
Bush 7
Christie 7
Carson 5
Fiorina 4
Paul 3



Margin: Trump +18


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