05 January 2016

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.01.2016: D-vs-R Presidential Matchups

Welcome to 2016!

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING

FOX News Poll, released 08.01.2016:
1,006 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 41 / Rubio 50, margin = Rubio +9
Clinton 43 / Cruz 50, margin = Cruz +7
Clinton 44 / Trump 47, margin = Trump +3
Clinton 44 / Bush 44, margin = TIE

If you are wondering why Fox's numbers, about every second poll, look so different than the rest of the polling universe, here is your answer:



Gravis (R) / OANN, released 12.01.2016:
2,416 RV, MoE = +/-2.0



Morning Consult (R), released 13.01.2016:
2,173 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 42 / Trump 44, margin = Trump +2
Clinton 42 / Carson 41, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 43 / Bush 40, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 43 / Rubio 40, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 43 / Christie 39, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 44 / Cruz 40, margin = Clinton +4

D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING

Iowa:

NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 10.01.2016:
2,821 RV, MoE = +/-1.8

Clinton 42 / Rubio 47, margin = Rubio +5
Clinton 43 / Cruz 47, margin = Cruz +4
Clinton 48 / Trump 40, margin = Clinton +8

Sanders 44 / Rubio 44, margin = TIE
Sanders 47 / Cruz 42, margin = Sanders +5
Sanders 51 / Trump 38, margin = Sanders +13

New Hampshire:

PPP (D), released 08.01.2016:
1,036 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 45 / Rubio 42, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 46 / Bush 40, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 48 / Cruz 40, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 50 / Carson 39, margin = Clinton +11
Clinton 50 / Trump 36, margin = Clinton +14

Sanders 50 / Bush 38, margin = Sanders +12
Sanders 51 / Rubio 37, margin = Sanders +14
Sanders 53 / Carson 34, margin = Sanders +19
Sanders 54 / Trump 34, margin = Sanders +20
Sanders 55 / Cruz 35, margin = Sanders +20

Clinton 43 / Rubio 29 / Trump 20, margin = Clinton +14
Clinton 47 / Cruz 28 / Trump 18, margin = Clinton +19

The PPP (D) NH poll shows both Democrats doing better than they did in the December poll.
What is really standing out, something I have never seen in my adult life in polling for New Hampshire for either party, is such a slew of large double digit margins. So, I checked the 2012 polling, Obama vs. Romney, just to see what it looked like, discovered that out of 42 polls taken in that state in 2012, from February until election day, only three showed double digit margins for Obama (+10, +12 and +15), but most of them were low-to-middle single digits. And the polling for Obama vs. GOP from 2010 through the end of January, 2012, with 9 more polls (total 51 polls) and 31 or 32 matchups, showed mostly single digit margins, the exception being the matchups against Sarah Palin.

So, at this stage in the game 4 years ago, there had only been 9 polls from New Hampshire. This time around, there have already been 27, so the polling game for 2016 has radically intensified over 2012.

Not only that, if you check out the New Hampshire polling for 2008, you will see that there were 47 polls for this state, and among the margins, 15 double digit margins, 14 of them for Obama, one for McCain, but most all of those margins happened in the last 3 weeks or so of the campaign.

Compare that to the 36 New Hampshire polls recorded by RCP in 2004. Virtually all of them are low-single-digit margins, many of them absolute ties. There is only 1 double digit margin, for Kerry, early in the game.  But to my knowledge we have never before seen a Democratic candidate score two +20 wins over two GOP candidates, esp. the 2 who are the most likely to get the GOP nomination.

And PPP's (D) track record in New Hampshire, well, actually, everywhere, is excellent.

I checked out the internals and noticed some very interesting things:

Clintons's favorability in NH is not good (39-53, -14), but Trump's and Cruz's values are far worse: Cruz is at 31-54, -23 and Trump is at an eye-popping 30-64, -34.  Now, FAV/UNFAV is no guarantee of a a win or a loss, but I have never in my life seen a candidate with such an upside down FAV/UNFAV who actually won the state, ever. Rubio, on the other hand, has a FAV/UNFAV similar to Hillary's: 34-49, -15. And Bernie Sanders is the only presidential candidate in this poll with a positive FAV/UNFAV: 55-35, +20.

When you go deeper and check out these FAV/UNFAVS, broken down by gender, the picture is even more stark:





Even among women, Clinton is underwater, by -5. You might say, well that sounds terrible, and honestly, it is not good. But look at Trump's values among women: he is underwater by -46! Cruz is underwater by -31 and Rubio comes the closest to his overall value, at -17. Bernie Sanders is soaring among women when it comes to FAV/UNFAV: +28, a 33 point difference to Hillary.

Does FAV/UNFAV translate to electability? Well, I would say that it's a matter of perspective and relation. You can also see that in the graphic above, Hillary beats Bush by 15 points in the women's vote and is only behind him by 3 in the men's vote.

Here's more of that data:


Hillary against Rubio: +14, against Trump: +30 (Sanders is at +32 over Trump). So, women in New Hampshire are not necessarily thrilled by Hillary Clinton, but given the choice of her or one of the GOPers named, she does decidedly better.

Why is this important? Well, NH has been a coveted battleground state now since 1988. Dukakis made a hard play for the state, but against quasi-favorite-son Bush 41, it was hopeless. One of the first signs for the Bush 41 campaign four years later that it was losing was the fact the Bill Clinton pulled ahead and stayed ahead in NH. Ever since then, lots of attention and money has been poured into this state, especially by the GOP, since Republican statisticians consider this to be the one single NE state in the Union where they could have a real chance of winning. If they are not winning here, than they can forget the rest of the NE corridor.


NBC News / WSJ / Marist, released 10.01.2016:
1,888 RV, MoE = +/-2.3

Clinton 40 / Rubio 52, margin = Rubio +12
Clinton 44 / Cruz 48, margin = Cruz +4
Clinton 45 / Trump 44, margin = Clinton +1

Sanders 50 / Rubio 41, margin = Sanders +9
Sanders 56 / Cruz 37, margin = Sanders +19
Sanders 55 / Trump 36, margin = Sanders +19




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