15 December 2015

Polling wrap-up, 01-15.12.2015

As I indicated in the last polling wrap up, the month of December is probably going to feel like a three week month, because I bet that close to Christmas, very little polling will be published. The first two weeks of December have been interesting because some states that are almost never polled at this stage in the game for a Prez cycle were polled (exciting!) and the numbers are also showing a verifiable shift with the GOP polling regarding 2nd place.

So, here we go:

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


Quinnipiac, released 02.12.2015: Trump +10 (screenshots of internals at the link below, Rubio in 2nd)
IPSOS/Reuters, released 03.12.2015 Trump +16 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +19 (RRV only), Trump +10 (IRV, R-leaning only)
CNN/ORC, released 04.12.2015: Trump +20 (Cruz in 2nd)
IBD/TIPP, released 06.12.2015: Trump +12 (Carson in 2nd)
Suffolk / USA Today, released 08.12.2015: Trump +11 (Cruz in 2nd)

Week 1 average: Trump +13.8

Morning Consult (R), released 09.12.2015: Trump +29 (and over the 40-mark, Carson in 2nd)
Zogby Analytics, released 09.12.2015: Trump +24.5 (Carson in 2nd)
CBS/NYT, released 10.12.2015: Trump +19 (Cruz in 2nd)
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Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), released 10.12.2015: Trump +8
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IPSOS/REUTERS, released 10.12.2015Trump +18 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +25 (RRV only), Trump +8 (IRV, R-leaning only)
Gravis (R) / OANN, released 10.12.2015: Trump +26  (and over the 40-mark, Cruz in 2nd)
The Economist / YouGov, released 11.12.2015: Trump +17 (Rubio in 2nd)
NBC / WSJ, released 13.12.2015: Trump +5 (Cruz in 2nd)
ABC / WAPO, released 14.12.2015: Trump +23 (Cruz in 2nd)
Monmouth University, released 14.12.2015: Trump +27 (abd over the 40 mark, Cruz in2nd)

As expected, there was considerably more national polling released in week two, just in advance of the GOP debate on 15.12.2015, in Las Vegas, NV.

Week 2 average (excluding PRRI): Trump +21.7 (the largest aggregate that Trump has held thus far)


GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Florida:
St. Leo University, released 09.12.2015: Trump +15.5 (Carson in 2nd)

Georgia:
Landmark (R) / Rosetta Stone, released 10.12.2015: Trump 26.9 (over the 40 mark, Cruz in 2nd)
(some screenshots from this poll at the link poll)

Indiana:
Bellwether Consulting (R), released 11.12.2015: Trump +9 (Rubio in 2nd)
(screenshot and analysis at the link below)

Iowa:
Monmouth University, released 07.12.2015: Cruz +5
(screenshot and analysis at the link below)
CNN/ORC, released 07.12.2015: Trump +13
Des Moines Register / Bloomberg / Selzer, released 12.12.2015: Cruz +10
(Screenshot at the link below)
Fox News Poll, released 13.12.2015: Cruz +2
Quinnipiac, released 14.12.2015: Trump +1
(Screenshot at the link below)
Loras College, released 14.12.2015: Cruz +7.3
(Screenshot at the link below)
PPP (D), released 15.12.2015: Trump +3

Since all Iowa polls came in from 07-14.12.2015, Week 2 average: Cruz +0.3 (statistical tie)

New Hampshire:
PPP (D), released 03.12.2015: Trump +14
(other hypothetical 4, 3 and 2-way matchups at the link below, also screenshots)
CNN/UNH/WMUR, released  08.12.2015: Trump +18
Adrian Gray Consulting (R), released 10.12.2015: Trump +1
MassInc/ 90.9 WBUR, released 11.12.2015: Trump +15 (over Christie)

Average: Trump +12

New Jersey:
Rutgers-Eagleton, released 10.12.2015: Trump +16 (over Christie)


North Carolina:
PPP (D), released 08.12.2015: Trump +17 (over Cruz)
(other hypothetical 4, 3 and 2-way matchups at the link below, also screenshots)

South Carolina:
FOX News Poll, released 09.12.2015: Trump +20
(analysis and screenshots at the link below)
Winthrop University, released 10.12.2015: Trump +8

Average: Trump +14

Tennessee:
Vanderbilt University, released 04.12.2015: Trump +4
(screenshots and short analysis at the link below)


In national GOP polling, Trump is absolutely romping. In fact, his standing among Republican registered voters IMPROVED after his statements about denying Muslims entry into the United States. Trump wins all 16 national polls, hands down.

In state polling, Trump is winning everywhere except in Iowa. Note that Indiana and Tenessee were polled, both kind of rarities.

The real news from these two weeks in polling has less to do with Trump and more to do with Carson's precipitous fall from 2nd place, to be replaced by either Rubio or Cruz. Also, Chris Christie has taken 2nd in 2 polls.  What we are definitely seeing is a top-tier of four candidates (Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Carson) who are all in double digits most everywhere,  and then a second tier of candidates, usually starting at 5% and going downward fast (Bush, Paul, Fiorina, sometimes Kasich and Huckabee). The rest are not really on the radar screen at all. In most all polling, Graham, Santorum, Pataki and Gilmore are not even at 1% and sometimes, they don't even get one single vote in a survey group, meaning absolute ZERO.

TOPLINES, survey group sizes, some internals etc. for all the Republican races can all be found at this LINK.


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DEM NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


Quinnipiac, released 02.12.2015: Clinton +30
IPSOS/Reuters, released 03.12.2015Clinton +13 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +15 (DRV only), Clinton +8 (IRV, D-leaning only)
CNN/ORC, released 04.12.2015: Clinton +28
IBD/TIPP, released 06.12.2015: Clinton +18
Suffolk / USA Today, released 08.12.2015: Clinton +27.5

Average, week 1: Clinton +23.7

Morning Consult (R), released 09.12.2015: Clinton +29
CBS/NYT, released 10.12.2015: Clinton +20
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Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), released 10.12.2015: Clinton +21
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IPSOS/REUTERS, released 10.12.2015Clinton +18 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +26 (DRV only), Sanders +6 (IRV, D-leaning only)
Gravis (R) / OANN, released 10.12.2015: Clinton +32
The Economist / YouGov, released 11.12.2015: Clinton +33
NBC / WSJ, released 14.12.2015: Clinton +19

Average, week 2: Clinton +26.5

The Democratic race is likely over. It will be Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders by a landslide.


DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Florida:
St. Leo University, released 09.12.2015: Clinton +25.2

Iowa:
CNN/ORC, released 07.12.2015: Clinton +18
Monmouth University, released 08.12.2015: Clinton +22
(analysis, screenshots at the link below)
Fox News Poll, released 13.12.2015: Clinton +14
Des Moines Register / Bloomberg / Selzer, released 13.12.2015: Clinton +9
(analysis, screenshots at the link below)
PPP (D), released 15.12.2015: Clinton +18
Quinnipiac, released 15.12.2015: Clinton +11
Loras College, released 15.12.2015: Clinton +21.6

Average: Clinton +16.2

New Hampshire:
PPP (D), released 03.12.2015: Clinton +2 (statistical tie)
CNN/UNH/WMUR, released  08.12.2015: Sanders +10

Average: Sanders +4

New Jersey:
Rutgers-Eagleton, released 10.12.2015: Clinton +41


North Carolina:
PPP (D), released 08.12.2015: Clinton +39

South Carolina:
FOX News Poll, released 09.12.2015: Clinton +44
(analysis, screenshots at the link below)

Tennessee:

Vanderbilt University, released 04.12.2015: Clinton +20

Clinton is winning everywhere but in New Hampshire, and she is winning big.

TOPLINES, survey group sizes, some internals etc. for all the Democratic races can all be found at this LINK.


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D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING


Quinnipiac, released 02.12.2015: 8 matchups, 4 of them Hillary vs. GOP, 4 of them Sanders vs. the same four GOPers (Rubio, Carson, Cruz, Trump) and for the first time since Quinnipiac has been doing large prez matchups, the Ds win all 8 matchups, from +1 to +10, reflecting a shift away from the GOP from between 3 and 18 points, Heavy analysis of various voter subgroups in the link below, including, most importantly, the Latino vote, with a historical comparison to 2012 and Romney's polling in late 2011 as well.

CNN/ORC, released 04.12.2015: 5 Hillary vs. GOP matchups, she loses 2, wins three, from margins Carson +3 to Clinton +3. The largest shift over the previous CNN poll is away from Trump and toward Clinton.

MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist, released 08.12.2015: 5 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she wins all five, from +1 to +11. Trump does the worst. The poll also released statistics for the Latino vote and the numbers are worth a look at.

Suffolk / USA Today, released 08.12.2015: 4 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she loses 1, wins 3, with margins ranging from Rubio +3.3 to Clinton +3.

Morning Consult (R), released 09.12.2015: 6 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, where she loses 3, ties in 2 and wins 1. But the real news is the shift in the demographics of the survey (screenshots at the link below) that probably lead to these kind of results.

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 10.12.2015: 7 Hillary vs. GOP matchups, she wins all 6 and ties in 1 (Rubio), from an extreme-right wing pollster with ties to the birther scene. Just two months ago, according to Gravis (R) / OANN, Trump was beating Hillary by 9 points.

NBC / WSJ, released 14.12.2015: 4 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she loses 2, wins 2, from Rubio +3 to Clinton +10 (over Trump)

ABC / WAPO, released 14.12.2015: 1 matchup released thus far (I suspect that more are on the way), Hillary +6 over Trump.

The main story from these 8 polls is that Trump is sinking fast in national polling against Hillary, while Rubio tends to do the best, even better than Carson. Cruz also loses to Hillary, but this is not new news, he has lost virtually every national matchup to her up to this date, although the losing margins in his case have also increased.  On the whole, this has been the best two-week polling period for Hillary Clinton since June, 2015.


D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING

Florida:
St. Leo University, released 09.12.2015: 12 matchups, Clinton vs. GOP, 6 of them two-way matchups, 6 of them 3-way matchups. Clinton wins all of them, and by landslide margins. In every single 3-way matchup, Trump, as a possible Independent candidate, supplants the GOP candidate as the 2nd party. 1,007 adults in the poll, there is also an RV subgroup, but the MoE is not listed. This is the most generous poll for Hillary in the Sunshine state in a long, long time.

New Hampshire:
PPP (D), released 07.12.2015: 12 matchups, 6 of them Hillary vs. GOP, 6 of them Sanders vs. GOP. The DEMS win all 12 matchups, with margins all between +1 and +10, Sanders' winning margins in this state are larger than Hillary's. Cruz and Trump do the worst of them all.

North Carolina:
PPP (D), released 08.12.2015: 12 matchups, 6 of them Hillary vs. GOP, 6 of them Sanders vs. GOP.  The GOP wins all but 2 matchups, with margins between Carson +9 and Trump or Fiorina +2. The other two matchups are ties: Clinton vs. Bush, Sanders vs. Fiorina.

There has been relatively little state polling in the last two weeks, with the bulk of polling attention fixated on the national polling, presumably because of the two debates this week (15.12 - Republicans, 19.12 - Democrats).

TOPLINES, survey group sizes, some internals etc. for all the D-vs-R matchup races can all be found at this LINK.

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