31 December 2015

In-and-Out update: on the eve of 2016

8 candidates who once declared for the presidency have now dropped out of the race: 2 Democrats and 6 Republicans. That leaves us with 15 candidates remaining officially "on the books" at the start of 2016: 3 Democrats and 12 Republicans.

I have been collecting the start and end-data for all of the campaigns all along and have reduced this kind of statistic into a simple table.

First, all 23 declared candidates:


The candidates you see highlighted in light orange have now dropped out. This chart is in chronological order, with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) being the first name on the list (because he was the first to announce) and Prof. Larry Lessig (D-MA) being the last name on the list (because he was the last to announce).  Columns 3/4, 7/8 are probably the most interesting. Column 3 lists the date of the announcement. Column 4 calculates the number of days before (but not including) Election Day 2016 that that candidate declared. Column 7 is the exit-date and column 8 calculates the date duration between columns 3 and 7 (not including the exit date itself). We can see that up until now, of the candidates who have dropped out, former Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) waged the longest campaign, 215 days long, although he was not really ever on the radar screen to begin with.  In 2008, former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R-VA) was also a candidate for president and also completely ignored. He dropped out one month later and the press did not even take notice. So, who knows, maybe he already dropped out and no one took the time to even look.

Now, here is a table only of the candidates who have dropped out:




That table is in chronological order based on column 7 (exit date). I think it's fair to note that of the 8, the only candidate who was an upper tier candidate and perhaps would have had a shot at his party's nomination was Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI), whose fairly early exit from the race came as a surprise to many people.


And here is a table of the 15 candidates still in the running:



So, that's the status of this presidential statistic at this current time, going into 2016.

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