17 December 2015

2016 polling round-up, 06-31.12.2015: Presidential D vs R matchups

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING


Morning Consult (R), released 16.12.2015:
4,038 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 46 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 45 / Carson 39, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 46 / Bush 38, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 45 / Rubio 36, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 46 / Christie 35, margin = Clinton +11
Clinton 47 / Cruz 36, margin = Clinton +11



ABC / WAPO, released 17.12.2015:
1,002 Adults, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 852 RV, MoE = +/- 4.0

Clinton 50 / Trump 44, margin = Clinton +6


The poll also asked this question:


Compare that with similar questions among GOP voters only. The difference is very large.

FOX News Poll, released 18.12.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 43 / Rubio 45, margin = Rubio +2
Clinton 45 / Cruz 45, margin = TIE
Clinton 46 / Carson 44, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 49 / Trump 38, margin = Clinton +11

The shift toward Clinton since the previous FOX poll is pretty dramatic:




Emerson College, released 21.12.2015:
754 RV, MoE = +/-3.5

Clinton 44.5 / Rubio 45.2, margin = Rubio +0.7
Clinton 47.9 Trump 45.6, margin = Clinton +2.3
Clinton 47.3 Cruz 44.6, margin = Clinton +2.7
Clinton 45.8 / Bush 40.7, margin = Clinton +5.1

Clinton 42.7 Rubio 31.5 / Trump 25.8 , margin = Clinton +11.2


PPP (D), released 21.12.2015:
1,267 LV, MoE = +/-2.8

Clinton 43 / Rubio 44, margin = Rubio +1
Clinton 45 / Carson 45, margin = TIE
Clinton 45 / Cruz 43, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 46 / Trump 43, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 44 / Bush 39, margin = Clinton +5

Sanders 41 / Carson 41, margin = TIE
Sanders 41 / Bush 42, margin = Bush +1
Sanders 41 / Cruz 42, margin = Cruz +1
Sanders 41 / Trump 43, margin = Trump +2
Sanders 39 / Rubio 42, margin = Rubio +3

Clinton 42 Cruz 26 / Trump 23 , margin = Clinton +16
Clinton 41 Rubio 27 / Trump 24 , margin = Clinton +14
Clinton 40 Trump 30 / (Generic Independent) 11 , margin = Clinton +1

Quinnipiac, released 22.12.2015:
1,140 RV, MoE = +/-2.9

Clinton 44 / Cruz 44, margin = TIE
Clinton 44 / Rubio 43, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 47 / Trump 40, margin = Clinton +7

Sanders 42 / Rubio 45, margin = Rubio +3
Sanders 43 / Cruz 44, margin = Cruz +1
Sanders 51 / Trump 38, margin = Sanders +13

The rumor is being spread that Trump is getting a lot of the DEM vote. Quinnipiac does not confirm these rumors. In fact, it shows Trump doing WORSE in the D vote than a R usually does:




Usually, a candidate ends up getting about 7-9% of the opposition party's vote on election day. 4% is well under that.

CNN/ORC, released 23.12.2015:
927 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 46 / Rubio 49, margin = Rubio +3
Clinton 46 / Cruz 48, margin = Cruz +2
Clinton 49 / Trump 47, margin = Clinton +2

Rasmussen Reports, released 28.12.2015:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 37 / Trump 36, margin = Clinton +1





D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING

Arizona:

Strategies 360 (R), released 17.09.2015:
514 LV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 42 / Trump 44, margin = Trump +2
Clinton 40 / Cruz 50, margin = Cruz +10
Clinton 37 / Rubio 53, margin = Rubio +16


The poll reflects an R+10 electorate (R43 / D33), which is not in-line with reality at all.


Iowa:

PPP (D), released 17.12.2015:
1,426 LV, MoE = +/-2.6

Clinton 41 / Rubio 48, margin = Rubio +7
Clinton 44 / Cruz 47, margin = Cruz +3
Clinton 45 / Carson 45, margin = TIE
Clinton 45 / Trump 43, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 45 / Fiorina 42, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 46 / Bush 41, margin = Clinton +5


Sanders 42 / Rubio 44, margin = Rubio +2
Sanders 43 / Carson 42, margin = Sanders +1
Sanders 44 / Cruz 43, margin = Sanders +1
Sanders 46 / Trump 43, margin = Sanders +3
Sanders 44 / Bush 40, margin = Sanders +4
Sanders 45 / Fiorina 39, margin = Sanders +6

-and-

Clinton 39 / Rubio 33 / Trump 23, margin = Clinton +6





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