17 December 2015

2016 polling round-up, 06-31.12.2015: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


Morning Consult (R), released 16.12.2015: (pre-debate, see also post-debate poll from 18.12.2015)
4,038 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,530 RRV, MoE = not listed

Trump 40
Carson 10
----------
Cruz 9
Bush 7
Rubio 7
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Paul 3
Kasich 2

Margin: Trump +30

IPSOS/Reuters, released 16.12.2015:
730 RRV, MoE = +/-4.1



Margin =  Trump +21 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +22 (RRV only), Trump +19 (IRV, R-leaning only)

Morning Consult (R), released 18.12.2015 (post GOP debate):
921 RRV, MoE = +/-3.0

Trump 36
Carson 12
Cruz 11
----------
Rubio 9
Bush  7
Paul 3
Christie 2
Fiorina 2
Apparently, neither Kasich nor Huckabee were not even listed on the poll

Margin: Trump +24

PPP (D), released 18.12.2015:
532 RLV, MoE = +/-4.3

Trump 34
Cruz 18
Rubio 13
----------
Bush  7
Carson 6
Christie 5
Fiorina 4
Huckabee 4
Paul 2
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +16

Hypothetical 4, 3 and 2-way races:

Trump 40
Cruz 22
Rubio 20
Carson 10
Margin: Trump +18

Trump 40
Cruz 21
Rubio 19
Bush 12
Margin: Trump +19

Trump 42
Cruz 26
Rubio 20
Margin: Trump +16

Cruz 45
Rubio 24
Bush 19
Margin: Cruz +21

Trump 58 / Bush 34, Trump +24
Trump 57 / Carson 34, Trump +23
Trump 54 / Rubio 38, Trump +16
Trump 45 / Cruz 44, Trump +1
Cruz 58 / Carson 26, Cruz +32
Cruz 48 / Rubio 34, Cruz +14
Rubio 46 / Carson 39, Rubio +7


Here are a number of fascinating internals from the PPP (D) poll:



-and-



"Agrabah" is a mythical town: it is where Aladdin came from....

FOX News Poll, released 18.12.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 402 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 39
Cruz 18
Rubio 11
----------
Carson 9
Bush 3
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +21


Hypothetical 4, 3 and 2-way races:

Trump 41
Cruz 25
Rubio 17
Carson 12
Margin: Trump +16

Trump 41
Cruz 25
Rubio 17
Carson 12
Margin: Trump +16

This internal is interesting, if not once again pretty disturbing:


Emerson College, released 21.12.2015:
754 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 415 RLV, MoE = +/-4.8

Trump 35.9
Cruz 20.7
Rubio 13.4
----------
Carson 7.1
Christie 6.0
Bush 5.9
Fiorina 4.6
Kasich 3.9
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +15.2


Quinnipiac, released 22.12.2015:
1,140 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
of them, 508 RRV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 28
Cruz 24
Rubio 12
Carson 10
----------
Christie 6
Bush 4
Fiorina 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +4

CNN/ORC, released 23.12.2015:
927 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 438 RRV

Trump 39
Cruz 18
Rubio 10
Carson 10
----------
Christie 5
Paul 4
Bush 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +21


IPSOS/Reuters, released 23.12.2015:
1,593 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 626 RRV, MoE = +/-4.5



Margin =  Trump +20 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +26 (RRV only), Trump +9 (IRV, R-leaning only)

The Economist / YouGov, released 23.12.2015:
2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 473 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 35
Cruz 19
Rubio 14
----------
Carson 7
Paul 6
Bush 5
Christie 3
Kasich 3
Fiorina 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +16

IPSOS/Reuters, released 31.12.2015:
2,005 Adults, MoE = +/-2.5
of them, 722 RRV, MoE = +/-4.2



Margin =  Trump +19 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +27 (RRV only), Trump +13 (IRV, R-leaning only)


GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Florida:

St. Pete Polls, released 16.12.2015:
2,694 RRV, MoE = +/-1.9

Trump 35.6
Cruz 21.9
Rubio 16.8
----------
Bush 9.3
Carson 6.3
Christie 3.0
Kasich 1.6
Fiorina 1.3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +12.7

Opinon Savvy / FOX 13 Tampa Bay / Florida Times Union, released 17.12.2015:
555 RLV, MoE = +/-4.1

Trump 29.7
Cruz 20.4
Rubio 15.0
Bush 12.5
----------
Carson 7.7
Christie 6.1
Fiorina 2.7
Paul 2.6
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +9.3

In a hypothetical 5-way race:

Trump 31.6
Cruz 21.4
Rubio 20.9
Bush 13.9
Carson 8.2

Margin: Trump +10.2

So, the demographics of this poll show how poorly the GOP fares among Black voters, but 8% of the respondents (in a very heavily Latino state) were indeed in this GOP survey:


That's not even close to the actual racial breakdown of the state, but it is a far better statistic than for the state of Georgia.

Also, this question was asked:



72.5% of FL GOP voters want to ban muslims from entering the USA. Wow. That statistic is very consistent with the statistic from Georgia, from the same pollster.

Georgia:

Opinion Savvy / Fox 5 Atlanta, released 17.12.2015:
538 RLV, MoE = +/-4.2

Trump 34.6
Cruz 15.8
Rubio 12.0
----------
Carson 6.4
Bush 6.0
Christie 5.6
Fiorina 5.1
Kasich 2.3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +18.8

The poll also includes bogus statistics for minorities. I say bogus because there are not enough in the subgroup to make any kind of realistic statistic in any universe that we know. Look:


There are exactly 5 out of 538 respondents who are black, and 6 others are Latino. The exact statistic within this subgroup is therefore: 0.93% black, 1.11% Latino. The MoEs for groups this unbelievably small must be +/-15 to +/-20, so trying to make any percentual statistic out of a group this small is just plain old criminal.

Also, this question was asked within the poll:



70.5% of GA GOP voters want to ban muslims from entering the USA. Wow.

Iowa:


CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015:
1,469 RV, MoE = +/-5.0
of them, 602 RLV (likely caucus goers)


Margin: Cruz +9


Gravis (R), released 23.12.2015:
1,027 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 440 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0




Margin: TIE (Trump/Cruz)

Nevada:

Gravis (R), released 30.12.2015:
909 LV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 406 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0



Margin: Trump +12

New Hampshire:

Franklin Pierce /Boston Herald, released 17.12.2015:
403 RLV, MoE = +/-4.7

Trump 26.0
Cruz 12.4
Rubio 12.4
Christie 10.8
----------
Bush 9.8
Kasich 7.5
Fiorina 6,1
Carson 4.8
Paul 2.9
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +13.6

CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015:
1,469 RV, MoE = +/-5.0
of them, 519 RLV


Margin: Trump +18


ARG, released 23.12.2015:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 21
Rubio 15
Kasich 13
Christie 12
Rubio 10
----------
Bush 7
Carson 6
Fiorina 5
Paul 4
all others 0

Margin: Trump +6




South Carolina:

Opinion Savvy / Augusta Chronicle, released 18.12.2015:
536 RLV, MoE = +/-4.2

Trump 28.3
Cruz 21.1
Rubio 11.6
----------
Bush 9.6
Carson 9.5
Christie 5.5
Fiorina 4.6
Paul 2.6
Huckabee 2.1
Graham 1.9
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +7.2

In the demographics of the survey, according to Savvy, Whites are 97.6% of the GOP electorate in South Carolina.

CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015:
1,469 RV, MoE = +/-5.0
of them, 852 RLV



Margin: Trump +15

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