01 December 2015

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.12.2015: Presidential D vs. R matchups

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING


Quinnipiac, released 02.12.2015:
1,453 RV, MoE = +/-2.6
Number in parentheses = values from the previous Qpiac poll, released 04.11.2015.

Clinton 45 (41) / Rubio 44 (46) , margin = Clinton +1 (Rubio +5)
Clinton 46 (40) / Carson 43 (50) , margin = Clinton +3 (Carson +10)
Clinton 47 (43) / Cruz 42 (46) , margin = Clinton +5 (Cruz +3)
Clinton 47 (46) / Trump 41 (43) , margin = Clinton +6 (+3)

Sanders 44 (41) / Rubio 43 (47) , margin = Sanders +1 (Rubio +6)
Sanders 47 (39) / Carson 41 (51) , margin = Sanders +6 (Carson +12)
Sanders 49 (46) / Trump 41 (44) , margin = Sanders +8 (+2)
Sanders 49 (44) / Cruz 39 (45) , margin = Sanders +10 (Cruz +1)

The Clinton values reflect a margin-shift to the Democratic party between +3 (vs. Trump) to +13 (vs. Carson) and the Sanders values reflect a margin-shift to the Democratic party between +6 (Rubio) and +18 (Carson). In both sets of matchups, Rubio comes the closest, in a statistical tie with both Clinton and Sanders. Cruz and Trump do the worst against the Democrats. In terms of margin-shift, however, Carson has fallen the most.

Let's take a look at the DEM vote, the Women's vote, the White vote, the AA vote and the Latino vote, according to Quinnipiac:




-and-




So, the margin values:

Clinton vs. Carson: +82 (DEMS), +16 (Women), -14 (White),  +70 (AA) +59 (Latinos)
Sanders vs. Carson: +78 (DEMS), +18 (Women), -10 (White),  +61 (AA) +59 (Latinos)

Clinton vs. Rubio: +79 (DEMS), +16 (Women), -18 (White),  +73 (AA) +51 (Latinos)
Sanders vs. Rubio: +74 (DEMS), +14 (Women), -14 (White),  +68 (AA) +50 (Latinos)

Clinton vs. Trump: +84 (DEMS), +23 (Women), -12 (White),  +80 (AA) +63 (Latinos)
Sanders vs. Trump: +78 (DEMS), +20 (Women), -6 (White),  +69 (AA) +67 (Latinos)

Clinton vs. Cruz: +85 (DEMS), +21 (Women), -12 (White),  +75 (AA) +55 (Latinos)
Sanders vs. Cruz: +83 (DEMS), +23 (Women), -7 (White),  +78 (AA) +56 (Latinos)

As benchmark to 2012: (2012 exit polls)

Obama vs. Romney: +85 (DEMS), +11 (Women), -20 (White),  +87 (AA) +44 (Latinos)

So, both Clinton and Sanders are doing better among women than Obama did in the actual election, they are also doing less worse among white voters as a whole as Obama did (I suspect that the white women's vote plays a large role in this), they are doing less well in the AA vote but considerably better in the Latino vote, with the most crushing margins against Trump.

According to this survey, Trump only gets 11% of the Latino vote against Sanders and only 13% against Hillary. Mitt Romney got 27% of the Latino vote in 2012 and still lost New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, together worth more electoral votes than Ohio these days.

Better yet, let's also compare this to the best corresponding Quinnipiac poll,  from late November, 2011:

Obama 45 / Romney 44, Obama +1 (statistical tie)
Obama 49 / Gingrich 40, Obama +9
Obama 50 / Cain 37, Obama +13

Let's look at those five voter categories from this Qpiac poll from 4 years ago:



Obama vs. Romney: +75 (DEMS), +11 (Women), -14 (White),  +83 (AA) +23 (Latinos)
Obama vs. Gingrich: +81 (DEMS), +17 (Women), -5 (White),  +83 (AA) +25 (Latinos)
Obama vs. Cain: +84 (DEMS), +23 (Women), TIE (White),  +83 (AA) +30 (Latinos)

(I only screenshotted the Obama vs. Romney internals, you can see the rest at the link)

From that poll - November 22, 2011, in an amazing show of consistency, Obama had a +83 in the AA vote over all three Republican contenders, including Cain. His margin in the Latino vote, a landslide margin between +23 and +30, was still way under the +44 he won among Latinos on election night, but his Latino margin from end of November 2011 is considerably smaller than the Latino margins we are seeing for Clinton and Sanders over the GOP this time around.  The most disturbing numbers for the GOP in this poll from December 2, 2015 should be the Latino numbers. Take a look at the Latino numbers above for Clinton and Sanders: the SMALLEST margin over the Republicans starts at +50 and goes as high as +67!  Obama was nowhere even close to these numbers at the end of 2011.


And finally, the demographics of this poll, from December, 2015:
:



D+1. Possible, but D+5 to D+7 is far more likely. So, the Clinton and Sanders numbers are likely somewhat deflated.

As compared to the demographics from the Quinnipiac Poll from 11/22/2011:



D+7, which is what the electorate was on election night, 2012.  So, with a D+7 electorate, Obama trumped in the Latino vote by +23 to +30. And now, in an electorate that Qpiac calculates as being far less D-friendly, Clinton and Sanders are sweeping in the Latino vote by +50 to +69.  It is highly likely that the Democratic nominee will win the Latino vote in 2016 by around +60, which means 79/19/2 at the end of the day.  We've never seen numbers like this for the Latino vote ever before. This is indeed a phenomenon.


CNN/ORC, released 04.12.2015:
930 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
Values in parentheses are from the previous CNN/ORC poll.

Clinton 47 (47) / Carson 50 (48) , margin = Carson +3 (+1)
Clinton 48  / Rubio 49 , margin = Rubio +1

Clinton 49 / Bush 47  , margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 49 (50) / Trump 46 (45) , margin = Clinton +3 (+5)
Clinton 50 / Cruz 47  , margin = Clinton +3 

MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist, released 08.12.2015:
2,360 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 48 / Carson 47, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 48 / Rubio 45, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 49 / Bush 45, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 51 / Cruz 44, margin = Clinton +7
Clinton 52 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +11


And in the Latino vote, according to the poll:
264 LRV, MoE = +/-6.0

Clinton 57 / Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +19
Clinton 61 / Carson 35, margin = Clinton +26
Clinton 61 / Bush 35, margin = Clinton +26
Clinton 61 / Cruz 34, margin = Clinton +27
Clinton 69 / Trump 27, margin = Clinton +42


I consider this to be a very important internal in the poll:




Suffolk / USA Today, released 08.12.2015:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 44.5 / Rubio 47.8, margin = Rubio +3.3
Clinton 46.0 / Carson 45.1, margin = Clinton +0.9
Clinton 46.9 / Cruz 45.1, margin = Clinton +1.8
Clinton 47.5 / Trump 44.2, margin = Clinton +3.3


Morning Consult (R), released 09.12.2015:
2,047 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 40  / Carson 45, margin = Carson +5
Clinton 40  / Trump 45, margin = Trump +5
Clinton 40  / Rubio 41, margin = Rubio +1
Clinton 41 / Bush 41, margin = TIE
Clinton 40 / Christie 40, margin = TIE
Clinton 42 / Cruz 40, margin = Clinton +2

The partisan make-up explains some of the numbers:




This poll shows an R+3 partisan identification. Possible, but not likely. Even more unlikely is that for a party that is male dominant (Republican), that more R-female voters are in this survey than D-Female voters. Also, and unsurprisingly, since this is coming from a Republican firm, the ideological breakdown is far too generous to Conservatives, also a tick to generous to Liberals, but far too stingy on Moderates, who certainly will comprise more than 24% of the electorate in 2016.



Gravis (R) / OANN, released 10.12.2015:
1,995 RV, MoE = +/-2.2

The results are at the main national page, which is changed every time new results come in, and so, here are the screenshots from these matchups, + the polling demographics:


-and-


NBC / WSJ, released 14.12.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 849 RV, MoE = +/-3.36 (+/-3.4)

Clinton 45 / Rubio 48, margin = Rubio +3
Clinton 46 / Carson 47, margin = Carson +1
Clinton 48 / Cruz 45, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 50 / Trump 40, margin = Clinton +10


ABC / WAPO, released 14.12.2015:
851 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 50 / Trump 44, margin = Clinton +6


D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING

Florida:

St. Leo University, released 09.12.2015:
1,007 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 48.5 / Rubio 37.8, margin = Clinton +10.7
Clinton 51.1 / Carson 38.2, margin = Clinton +12.9
Clinton 50.7 / Trump 37.2, margin = Clinton +13.5
Clinton 49.1 / Bush 35.3, margin = Clinton +13.8
Clinton 51.7 / Cruz 35.8, margin = Clinton +15.9
Clinton 51.3 / Fiorina 31.9, margin = Clinton +19.4

And in hypothetical three-way matchups:

Clinton 43.3 / Trump 29.5 / Bush 19.6 , margin = Clinton +13.8
Clinton 44.8 / Trump 29.6 / Fiorina 14.9 , margin = Clinton +15.2
Clinton 43.3 / Trump 25.9 / Rubio 21.8 , margin = Clinton +17.4
Clinton 44.0 / Trump 25.7 / Carson 20.1 , margin = Clinton +18.3
Clinton 45.4 / Trump 26.1 / Cruz 19.9 , margin = Clinton +19.3

New Hampshire:

PPP (D), released 07.12.2015:
990 LV, MoE = +/-3.1

Clinton 44 / Rubio 43, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 45 / Fiorina 44, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 43 / Bush 41, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 45 / Carson 43, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 47 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 47 / Cruz 39, margin = Clinton +8

Sanders 45 / Rubio 41, margin = Sanders +4
Sanders 46 / Carson 41, margin = Sanders +5
Sanders 48 / Fiorina 40, margin = Sanders +8
Sanders 47 / Bush 38, margin = Sanders +9
Sanders 49 / Trump 40, margin = Sanders +9
Sanders 48 / Cruz 38, margin = Sanders +10

The PPP poll also measured these things:


North Carolina:

PPP (D), released 08.12.2015:
1,214 LV, MoE = +/-2.8
Numbers in parentheses = the previous PPP (D) poll from this state.

of them, 555 DLV, MoE = +/-4.2

Clinton 41 (43) / Carson 47 (49), margin = Carson +6 (+6)
Clinton 43 (45) / Cruz 47 (46), margin = Cruz +4 (+1)
Clinton 43 (42) / Trump 47 (48), margin = Trump +4 (+6)
Clinton 42 (42) / Rubio 46 (48), margin = Rubio +4 (+6)
Clinton 42 (43) / Fiorina 44 (45), margin = Fiorina +2 (+2)
Clinton 43 (46) / Bush 43 (43), margin = TIE (Clinton +3)


Sanders 37 (37) / Carson 46 (48), margin = Carson +9 (+11)
Sanders 39 Rubio 44, margin = Rubio +5
Sanders 39 (40) / Bush 42 (46), margin = Bush +3 (+6)
Sanders 42 (41) / Cruz 44 (45), margin = Cruz +2 (+4)
Sanders 44 (41) / Trump 46 (48), margin = Trump +2 (+7)
Sanders 40 / Fiorina 40, margin = TIE

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