01 December 2015

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.12.2015: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


Quinnipiac, released 02.12.2015:
1,453 RV, MoE = +/-2.6
of them, 672 RRV, Moe = +/-3.8

Trump 27
Rubio 17
Carson 16
Cruz 16
-----------
Bush 5
Fiorina 3
Paul 2
Christie 2
Kasich 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +10

This internal is interesting:



IPSOS/Reuters, released 03.12.2015:
1,072 Adults, MoE = +/-3.4
of them, 385 RRV, MoE = +/-5.7



Margin =  Trump +16 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +19 (RRV only), Trump +10 (IRV, R-leaning only)

and in a 3-man race:




Margin =  Trump +12 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +15 (RRV only), Trump +9 (IRV, R-leaning only)


CNN/ORC, released 04.12.2015:
445 RRV, MoE = +/-4.5

Trump 36
Cruz 16
Carson 14
Rubio 12
-----------
Christie 4
Bush 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +20

IBD/TIPP, released 06.12.2015:
901 Adults, MoE = +/-3.3
of them, 395 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 27
Carson 15
Rubio 14
Cruz 13
-----------
Bush 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +12

Suffolk / USA Today, released 08.12.2015:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 357 RLV, MoE =  +/-5.2

Trump 27.5
Cruz 16.5
Rubio 15.7
Carson 10.4
-----------
Bush 4.2
Christie 1.7
Kasich 1.7
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +11

Morning Consult (R), released 09.12.2015:
2,047 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 865 RRV

Trump 41
Carson 12
Rubio 10
-----------
Cruz 7
Bush 5
Christie 3
Huckabee 3
Fiorina 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +29


Zogby Analytics, released 09.12.2015:
271 RLV, MoE = +/- 6.0 !

Trump 37.6
Carson 13.1
Rubio 12.0
-----------
Cruz 7.6
Bush 6.8
Christie 3.9
Fiorina 2.5
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +24.5

This Zogby is an internet-only poll, polled on only one day, extremely SMALL survey group, and yet, the results parallel the Morning Consult poll from above in many ways.

CBS/NYT, released 10.12.2015:
431 RLV, +/- 6.0 !

Trump 35
Cruz 16
Carson 13
------------
Rubio 9
Paul 4
Bush 3
Christie 3
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +19

Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), released 10.12.2015:
1,003 RELIGIOUS Adults, MoE = +/-3.7
of them, 376 Religion RLV and ILV, R-leaning, MoE =

Trump 24
Carson 16
Cruz 12
Bush 10
Rubio 10
------------
Paul 4
Christie 3
Fiorina 2
Kasich 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +8

IPSOS/REUTERS, released 10.12.2015:
1,416 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 494 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0



Margin =  Trump +18 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +25 (RRV only), Trump +8 (IRV, R-leaning only)

and in a 3-man race:



Margin =  Trump +17 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +22 (RRV only), Trump +12 (IRV, R-leaning only)

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 10.12.2015:
1,995 RV, MoE = +/-2.2
of them, 691 RRV and 731 DRV, MoE = +/-3.7 and +/-3.6, respectively

Since the link is to the national page that is then changed, here a complete screenshot:


Margin: Trump +26

The Economist / YouGov, released 11.12.2015:
2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 455 RLV, MoE = not listed, likely +/-5.0

Trump 34
Rubio 17
Cruz 15
------------
Carson 9
Paul 6
Fiorina 4
Bush 4
Christie 3
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +17


NBC / WSJ, released 13.12.2015:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 27
Cruz 22
Rubio 15
Carson 11
------------
Bush 7
Fiorina 5
Christie 3
Huckabee 3
Paul 2
Kasich 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +5


ABC / WAPO, released 14.12.2015:
851 RV, MoE = +/-4.0
of them, 362 RRV, MoE = +/-6.0

Trump 38
Cruz 15
Rubio 12
Carson 12
-----------
Bush 5
Christie 4
Paul 2
Kasich 2
All others not listed

Margin: Trump +23

You can see based on the WAPO time chart how much Ted Cruz has moved up in the ranks since July, 2015:



Monmouth University, released 14.12.2015:
385 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 41
Cruz 14
Rubio 10
Carson 9
-----------
Bush 3
Kasich 3
Christie 2
Fiorina 2
Huckabee 2
Paul 2
All others not listed

Margin: Trump +27

Trump's rise in the Monmouth poll as opposed to the last polls from the same firm, is pretty meteoric:



GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Florida:

St. Leo University, released 09.12.2015:
1,007 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 220 RLV, MoE = +/-7.0 !

Trump 29.1
Carson 13.6
Rubio 11.4
Bush 10.5
-----------
Cruz 9.1
Fiorina 1.4
All others not listed

Margin: Trump +15.5

Georgia:

Landmark (R) / Rosetta Stone, released 10.12.2015:
800 RLV, MoE = +/-3.4

Trump 43.1
Cruz 16.2
Rubio 10.6
-----------
Carson 6.7
Bush 4.8
Huckabee 1.9
Fiorina 1.8
Kasich 1.5
Paul 0.5

Margin: Trump +26.9

The exact demographics of the poll are not given, but the tables at the .pdf show breakdowns by gender, age and race:



Using the raw numbers that Landmark (R) / Rosetta provided, here the demographics, by percentage:

M 51.8 / F 48.2, 18-39 10.7 / 40-64 53.9 / 65+ 35.4 (almost 90% of the GA GOP electorate is 40 and over, so at least 65% of it, if not more, is 50 and over - a very old electorate), White 95.8 / Black 
2.0, other 2.2 (in a state that is more than 30% Black).

Trump gets 48% of the Male vote in Georgia, a male dominated state. He is easily going to win pretty much every county in Georgia and therefore, the great majority of its delegates, if these numbers continue to hold.

Indiana:

Bellwether Consulting (R), released 11.12.2015:
1,295 RV, MoE = not listed
of them, 670 RRV + IRV, R-leaning, MoE = not listed
(Indiana does not officially record or publish VR statistics by party affiliation, but some individual counties do)

Trump 26
Rubio 17
Cruz 17
Carson 16
-----------
Bush 6
Paul 5
Fiorina 3
Christie 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +9

Bellwether listed its poll demographics, which seem to be very much in line with the statewide demographics, but I have no idea if they are actually in line with the true demographics for the Republican Party within the Hoosier State:


Bellwether (R), in terms of gender, shows an F+4 (M48/F52) electorate and a somewhat younger electorate than GOP sees in most all states: according to the poll, 56% of GOP voters are 45 and older. In states like South Carolina, Georgia and Florida, it's more like 70% starting at 50 upward. The poll shows an Independent plurality voter-identification (which I see as entirely possible) and within it, an R+9 partisan advantage (which I also see as very likely), but again, the state of Indiana neither collects does does it publish VR statistics by partisan affiliation, so this is pretty much a shot in the dark. However, considering that the state is, on the whole, a circa R+15 state at the presidential level, this could be just about right. It's rare to ever see a poll from Indiana and this one looks like a Trump lead, with 3 other candidates bunched up into 2nd place. Indiana was a state that just loved George W. Bush, Jr., but is not showing much love for his brother Jeb at all.

Bellwether (R) must also be a relatively new firm: there is no polling from this firm from 2008, 2010 or 2012. But it claims to have been one of two pollsters in the bi-partisan Howey-DePauw poll from 2012. I am researching this right now.

Iowa:

Monmouth University, released 07.12.2015:
425 RLV, MoE = +/-4.8

Cruz 24
Trump 19
Rubio 17
Carson 13
-----------
Bush 6
Paul 4
Fiorina 3
Kasich 3
Huckabee 2
Christie 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Cruz +5

Here the poll demographics:


69% of the GOP electorate in Iowa is 50 or older, 50% of it is Evangelical Christian and 73.4% of it is either very Conservative or somewhat Conservative.

CNN/ORC, released 07.12.2015:
2,003 Adults, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 552 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 33
Cruz 20
Carson 16
Rubio 11
-----------
Bush 4
Paul 3
Fiorina 3
Christie 2
Huckabee 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +13

Des Moines Register / Bloomberg / Selzer, released 12.12.2015:
2,635 "contacts" (Adults), MoE = not listed
of them, 400 RLV (likely Republican Caucusgoers), MoE = +/-4.9

Cruz 31
Trump 21
Carson 13
Rubio 10
-----------
Bush 6
Paul 3
Huckabee 3
Christie 3
Kasich 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Cruz +10

These internals were interesting:

On 14 issues or characteristics, Cruz wins on 7, Trump wins on 7, but overall, the larger values are for Trump. The question about making abortion illegal is essentially the Republican pendant to the Democratic candidate question about gun control. And on the abortion question, although Cruz beats Trump, just as many are undecided. Rubio places second on the issue of being able to work with congress, Carson places third, Trump places 4th. Carson also places second on some of the "feel good" issues, but on pocketbook issues, Trump dominates.  Just as I wrote for the Democratic side, alone the fact that GOP survey takers are no automatically giving their checkmark either completely for Cruz or for Trump means that they are taking the time to think about their choices, which I think is always good for Democracy on the whole. There are only 13 questions for the Democrats, but 14 for the Republican, because of the last question.  It's interesting to note that Carson, who was dominating in polling just weeks ago, and also leading Clinton in a number of national and state matchups, doesn't receive much confidence from RLV in this poll concerning the ability to beat a nominee named Hillary Clinton.


Fox News Poll, released 13.12.2015:
450 RLV (Likely Caucus Goers), MoE = +/-4.5

Cruz 28
Trump 26
Rubio 13
Carson 10
-----------
Bush 5
Paul 5
Christie 2
Fiorina 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Cruz +2 (statistical tie)

Quinnipiac, released 14.12.2015:
874 RLV, MoE = +/-3.3

Trump 28
Cruz 27
Rubio 14
Carson 10
-----------
Bush 5
Paul 4
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +1 (statistical tie)

On some important issues, the picture has not changed among the IA GOP electorate since the last poll:



Again, on question 79, Iowa GOPers actually support Pres. Obama's position.

Loras College, released 14.12.2015:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 499 RLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Cruz 29.7
Trump 23.4
Carson 10.8
Rubio 10.6
-----------
Bush 6.2
Fiorina 3.4
Paul 2.4
Huckabee 1.8
All others 1 or less

Margin: Cruz +7.3

There are also two interesting sets of internals from this poll, one set of which closely matches some of the findings from the Quinnipiac poll, released on the same day, so we are seeing some verifiable consistency, here:



-and-



PPP (D), released 15.12.2015:
522 RLV, MoE = +/-4.3

Trump 28
Cruz 25
Rubio 14
Christie 10
-----------
Bush 7
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Kasich 2
Paul 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +3

Hypothetical 4, 3 and 2 way races:

Cruz 31
Trump 28
Rubio 21
Carson 14
Margin: Cruz +3

Cruz 36
Trump 29
Rubio 19
Bush 12
Margin: Cruz +7

Cruz 39
Trump 31
Rubio 24
Margin: Cruz +8

Cruz 51
Rubio 21
Bush 19
Margin: Cruz +8

Trump 56 / Bush 35, Trump +21
Cruz 61 / Carson 29, Cruz +32
Cruz 59 / Rubio 30, Cruz +29
Cruz 56 / Trump 34, Cruz +22
Rubio 49 / Carson 39, Rubio +10
Rubio 49 / Trump 45, Rubio +4
Carson 45 / Trump 44, Carson +1

These questions and demographics are also interesting from the PPP (D) Iowa poll:


xxx



New Hampshire:

PPP (D), released 03.12.2015:
454 RRV, MoE = +/-4.6

Trump 27
Cruz 13
Rubio 11
Christie 10
-----------
Carson 9
Kasich 8
Fiorina 6
Bush 5
Paul 4
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +14

Hypothetical 4, 3 and 2 way races:

Trump 32
Rubio 25
Cruz 18
Carson 13
Margin: Trump +7

Trump 32
Rubio 23
Cruz 20
Bush 18
Margin: Trump +9

Trump 35
Rubio 32
Cruz 22
Margin: Trump +3

Cruz 33
Rubio 32
Bush 21
Margin: Cruz +1

Trump 54 / Bush 38. Trump +16
Cruz 46 / Carson 34, Cruz +12
Rubio 48 / Carson 37, Rubio +11
Trump 46 / Carson 39, Trump +7
Rubio 43 / Cruz 37, Cruz +6
Cruz 44 / Trump 41, Cruz +3
Rubio 45 / Trump 45, TIE

And there is this as well from the poll:


CNN/UNH/WMUR, released  08.12.2015:
402 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 32
Rubio 14
-----------
Christie 9
Bush 8
Kasich 7
Cruz 6
Fiorina 5
Carson 5
Paul 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +18

Adrian Gray Consulting (R), released 10.12.2015:
525 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0


Trump 19
Rubio 18
Cruz 11
-----------
Carson 9
Christie 8
Bush 8
Kasich 6
Paul 5
Fiorina 2
Huckabee 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +1 (statistical tie)

The poll does something kind of weird. It give statistics for RRV, RLV and VERY RLV, in which case, under the super-duper come-rain, come-shine Republican Likely Voters ( LOL ), Rubio is just slightly ahead:




Ok, for me, such a poll literally reeks of partisan sniffing and hoping against hope to find a way to improve one candidate's standing, in this case, Marco Rubio's.

The demographics of the poll, which you can find on p. 2 of the .pdf, The electorate that was survey is M+6 (M53/F47) and mostly all white (97%) in a state that is mostly all white and the Republican vs. Independent (NH is an OPEN primary state) is also pretty close to right (R54/I46, R+9, in 2012, it was R53/I45, R+8 in 2012). So, the demographics of the survey group itself, other than the age groups, is not skewing the poll.

MassInc/ 90.9 WBUR, released 11.12.2015:
402 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 27
Christie 12
Rubio 11
Cruz 10
-----------
Bush 8
Kasich 7
Carson 6
Fiorina 3
Paul 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +15 (over Christie)

New Jersey:

Rutgers-Eagleton, released 10.12.2015:
843 Adults, MoE = +/-3.4
of them, 203 RRV, MoE not listed, likely more than +/-6.0

Trump 30
Christie 14
Rubio 13
Cruz 10
-----------
Carson 4
Bush 2
Fiorina 2
Kasich 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +16 (over Christie)


North Carolina:

PPP (D), released 08.12.2015:
1,214 LV, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 537 RLV, MoE = +/-4.2

Trump 33
Cruz 16
Carson 14
Rubio 14
-----------
Bush 5
Christie 4
Kasich 3
Fiorina 2
Huckabee 2
Paul 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +17

And in 4-way or 3-way hypotheticals:

Trump 35
Cruz 21
Rubio 20
Carson 17
Margin: Trump +14

Trump 40
Cruz 23
Rubio 20
Bush  13
Margin: Trump +17

Trump 41
Cruz 27
Rubio 24
Margin: Trump +14

Trump 41
Rubio 28
Bush 19
Margin: Trump +14

And in hypothetical two-way matchups:

Trump 64 / Bush 30, Trump +34
Trump 53 / Rubio 42, Trump +11
Trump 51 / Carson 41, Trump +10
Trump 48 / Cruz 41, Trump +7
Cruz 49 / Carson 37, Cruz +12
Cruz 48 / Rubio 35, Cruz +13
Rubio 45 / Carson 43, Rubio +2

The PPP poll indicates that strong feelings among NC Republicans about Islam and a large amount of anger is generating the upsurge for Donald Trump. Here are two graphics that are indeed quite telling:

-and-


Interestingly enough, the Republican response to Q2 indicates very strong support for what President Obama, a Democrat, wants. But the responses to both Q24 and Q25 are a little shocking.



South Carolina:

FOX News Poll, released 09.12.2015:
801 LV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 437 RLV, MoE = +/- 4.5

Trump 35
Carson 15
Cruz 14
Rubio 14
-----------
Bush 5
Christie 2
Graham 2
Paul 2

All others 1 or less 

Margin: Trump +20

Two details about both the GOP and the DEM nomination figures from South Carolina.  First, FOX asked these two questions BEFORE doing the matchups:




Putting aside the fact that doing such dances very close on the border to push-polling, the numbers themselves reflect that is as if there are two entirely different electorates from two completely different planets to be found in the Palmetto State. Wow.

And, although FOX did not list the exact demographics for each electorate, by listing the MoEs for the categories to be found within electorate, we can still see which group is more dominant, also, which group is simply missing from the one electorate or the other:




Because there is a higher MoE for Republican woman than Republican men, this can only mean that considerable more Republican men are in the survey group. A difference of +-1 in MoE can easily mean a +10 to +15 spread between the two groups, depending on the survey size itself. So, it looks to me that for the GOP nomination, it's M60/F40 and for the DEM nomination, it's F55/M55.  Also, the DEM nomination has a category for the black vote and the MoE for the Black vote is LOWER than for the White vote (+/-7 vs. +/-8), which can only mean that there were more Black Democrats than White Democrats in the survey.  This is not surprising at all. Nor is it surprising that there is no Black vote category for the GOP survey group, which is likely 97% or more White, so no reliable statistic of any kind can be made of the 9 or 10 people who took the GOP survey who are not White.  But on the DEM side, a Tea Party and also a White Evangelical statistic is missing, which means that there were not enough of those people on the DEM side to make a statistics. Again, when you look deep into the internals of virtually every South Carolina poll, it's hard to believe that these people hail from the same state. It really IS as if they are two completely different electorates from 2 different planets. 

The FOX poll also claims a partisan identification of R+11 (R49/D38), which could maybe be right. South Carolina does not do VR by partisan breakdown, so we will never know for sure, but generally, it has been about a R +10 to +12 state in recent presidential politics. However, a +11 spread R vs. D could only hold if the I's split exactly 50/50 and I doubt they do.  But at the end of the day, that is not all that important. South Carolina has not gone for a Democratic presidential candidate in (soon) 40 years, making it a 9 for 9 R state.

Winthrop University, released 10.12.2015:
828 RLV, MoE = +/-3.4 (RDD and Wireless)

Trump 24
(Undecided 17)
Cruz 16
Carson 14
Rubio 11
-----------
Bush 9
Fiorina 2
Graham 2
Huckabee 2

All others 1 or less 

Margin: Trump +8


Tennessee:

Vanderbilt University, released 04.12.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.9
of them, 495 RRV, MoE = +/-5.6


Trump 29
Carson 25
Cruz 14
Rubio 12
-----------
Bush 5
someone else 4
Fiorina 2
All others not listed - no statistic possible

Margin: Trump +4

Two detail graphics worth noting:



-and-





xxx

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