01 December 2015

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.12.2015: DEM Nomination

DEM NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


Quinnipiac, released 02.12.2015:
1,453 RV, MoE = +/-2.6
of them, 573 DRV, Moe = +/-4.1

Clinton 60
Sanders 30
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +30

IPSOS/Reuters, released 03.12.2015:
1,072 Adults, MoE = +/-3.4
of them, 430 DRV, MoE = +/-5.74


Margin = Clinton +13 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +15 (DRV only), Clinton +8 (IRV, D-leaning only)


403 DRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 58
Sanders 30
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +28


IBD/TIPP, released 06.12.2015:
901 Adults, MoE = +/-3.3
of them, 345 DRV, MoE = +/-5.4

Clinton 51
Sanders 33
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +18


Suffolk / USA Today, released 08.12.2015:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 363 DLV, MoE = +/-5.1

Clinton 56.2
Sanders 28.7
O'Malley 3.6

Margin: Clinton +27.5

Morning Consult (R), released 09.12.2015:
2,047 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 808 DRV

Clinton 52
Sanders 23
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +29

CBS/NYT, released 10.12.2015:
384 DLV, +/- 6.0 !

Clinton 52
Sanders 32
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +20


Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), released 10.12.2015:
1,003 RELIGIOUS Adults, MoE = +/-3.7
of them, 463 Religios DLV and ILV, D-leaning, MoE =

Clinton 52
Sanders 31
O'Malley 4

Margin: Clinton +21


IPSOS/REUTERS, released 10.12.2015:
1,416 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 494 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0



Margin = Clinton +18 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +26 (DRV only), Sanders +6 (IRV, D-leaning only)


Gravis (R) / OANN, released 10.12.2015:
1,995 RV, MoE = +/-2.2
of them, 691 RRV and 731 DRV, MoE = +/-3.7 and +/-3.6, respectively

Since the link is to the national page that is then changed, here a complete screenshot:


Margin: Clinton +32


The Economist / YouGov, released 11.12.2015:
2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 647 DLV, MoE = not listed, likely +/-4.5

Clinton 63
Sanders 30
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +33

NBC / WSJ, released 14.12.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 400 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 56
Sanders 37
O'Malley 4

Margin: Clinton +19



DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Florida:

St. Leo University, released 09.12.2015:
1,007 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 270 DLV, MoE = +/-6.0 !

Clinton 58.9
Sanders 23.7

Margin: Clinton +25.2


Iowa:

CNN/ORC, released 07.12.2015:
2,003 Adults, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 442 DLV, MoE = +/-4.5

Clinton 54
Sanders 36
O'Malley 4

Margin: Clinton +18


Monmouth University, released 08.12.2015:
405 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 55
Sanders 33
O'Malley 6

Margin: Clinton +22

As with the Monmouth GOP poll, here are the demographics:


According to the Monmouth poll, the Iowa Democratic electorate, just like the GOP electorate, is 69% over 50, but whereas the GOP electorate is male-heavy, the DEM electorate is female heavy, by +12. Also, the GOP demographics include nothing about race because the GOP non-white subgroup is so incredibly small, there is no way to make a demographic from it. However, for the Democrats, in a state that it 95% white overall, it is possible. Also, almost 73% of Iowa Democrats are moderate to Conservative Democrats, part of the reason why Bernie Sanders is not doing well here. So, there are some similarities between the two electorates, but some striking differences. And in the GE in November of 2016, this electorate will be considerably younger, generally a plus for the Democratic nominee.


Fox News Poll, released 13.12.2015:
357 DLV (Likely Caucus Goers), MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 50
Sanders 36
O'Malley 5

Margin: Clinton +14

Des Moines Register / Bloomberg / Selzer, released 13.12.2015:
2,365 Adults (Contacts), MoE = +/2.0
of them, 404 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 48
Sanders 39
O'Malley 4

Margin: Clinton +9

These internals from the Des Moines Register (Selzer) poll were interesting, worth preserving for posterity, I think:


On 8 of 13 issues or characteristics, Hillary wins hands-down, but Sanders wins hands-down on 4 issues and on the issue of gun control, it's essentially a tie between the two in a state that has a pretty Conservative Democratic voting electorate.  Sanders does better on the "feel good" issues, whereas Clinton soars on issues of competence.  The fact that Democrats are not simply giving her a checkmark for everything tells me that they are thinking long and hard about their choices, which in my opinion is always good for Democracy on the whole.


PPP (D), released 15.12.2015:
526 DLV, MoE = +/-4.3

Clinton 52
Sanders 34
O'Malley 7

Margin: Clinton +18

Quinnipiac, released 15.12.2015:
737 DLV, Moe = +/-3.6

Clinton 51
Sanders 40
O'Malley 6

Margin: Clinton +11

Loras College, released 15.12.2015:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.1

Clinton 58.9
Sanders 27.3
O'Malley 3.8

Margin: Clinton +21.6

New Hampshire:

PPP (D), released 03.12.2015:
457 DRV, MoE = +/-4.6

Clinton 44
Sanders 42
O'Malley 8

Margin: Clinton +2 (statistical tie)


CNN/UNH/WMUR, released  08.12.2015:
369 DLV, MoE = +/-5.1

Sanders 50
Clinton 40
O'Malley 1

Margin: Sanders +10


New Jersey:

Rutgers-Eagleton, released 10.12.2015:
843 Adults, MoE = +/-3.4
of them, 304 DRV, MoE not listed, likely more than +/-5.0

Clinton 60
Sanders 19
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +41



North Carolina:

PPP (D), released 08.12.2015:
1,214 LV, MoE = +/-2.8

of them, 555 DLV, MoE = +/-4.2

Clinton 60
Sanders 21
O'Malley 10

Margin: Clinton +39

The 10% in this poll for Martin O'Malley is the very first time that he has come into double digits anywhere.

South Carolina:

FOX News Poll, released 09.12.2015:
801 LV, MoE = +/-3.0

of them, 364 DLV, MoE = +/- 5.0

Clinton 65
Sanders 21
O'Malley 3

Margin: Clinton +44

Two details about both the GOP and the DEM nomination figures from South Carolina.  First, FOX asked these two questions BEFORE doing the matchups:




Putting aside the fact that doing such dances very close on the border to push-polling, the numbers themselves reflect that is as if there are two entirely different electorates from two completely different planets to be found in the Palmetto State. Wow.

And, although FOX did not list the exact demographics for each electorate, by listing the MoEs for the categories to be found within electorate, we can still see which group is more dominant, also, which group is simply missing from the one electorate or the other:




Because there is a higher MoE for Republican woman than Republican men, this can only mean that considerable more Republican men are in the survey group. A difference of +-1 in MoE can easily mean a +10 to +15 spread between the two groups, depending on the survey size itself. So, it looks to me that for the GOP nomination, it's M60/F40 and for the DEM nomination, it's F55/M55.  Also, the DEM nomination has a category for the black vote and the MoE for the Black vote is LOWER than for the White vote (+/-7 vs. +/-8), which can only mean that there were more Black Democrats than White Democrats in the survey.  This is not surprising at all. Nor is it surprising that there is no Black vote category for the GOP survey group, which is likely 97% or more White, so no reliable statistic of any kind can be made of the 9 or 10 people who took the GOP survey who are not White.  But on the DEM side, a Tea Party and also a White Evangelical statistic is missing, which means that there were not enough of those people on the DEM side to make a statistics. Again, when you look deep into the internals of virtually every South Carolina poll, it's hard to believe that these people hail from the same state. It really IS as if they are two completely different electorates from 2 different planets. 

The FOX poll also claims a partisan identification of R+11 (R49/D38), which could maybe be right. South Carolina does not do VR by partisan breakdown, so we will never know for sure, but generally, it has been about a R +10 to +12 state in recent presidential politics. However, a +11 spread R vs. D could only hold if the I's split exactly 50/50 and I doubt they do.  But at the end of the day, that is not all that important. South Carolina has not gone for a Democratic presidential candidate in (soon) 40 years, making it a 9 for 9 R state.

Tennessee:

Vanderbilt University, released 04.12.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.9

of them, 346 DRV, MoE = +/-6.7

Clinton 48
Sanders 28
O'Malley 3

Margin: Clinton +20

xxxx

No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.