13 November 2015

Trump's 95-minute long Mega-Rant in Iowa on November 12, 2015...

Trump ranted for more than 1.5 hours at an event in Fort Dodge (Webster County), Iowa.

Here is the complete video of the event:





The media is having an absolute hayday with all the wild stuff he said:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/note-trump-wild/story?id=35175057

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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-bashes-rivals-voters-at-iowa-rally/

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http://us.cnn.com/2015/11/12/politics/donald-trump-ben-carson-iowa-belt-stupid/index.html

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http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/11/13/trump-rips-ben-carson-backstory-in-marathon-iowa-speech/?intcmp=hpbt1

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http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-donald-trump-goes-rails-n462816

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http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2015/11/13/trump-carsons-incurably-and-pathologically-diseased-kind-of-like-a-pedophile-n2080044

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/11/13/donald-trump-begs-iowans-not-to-believe-ben-carson-dont-be-fools-okay/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumprant550am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

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http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-melts-down-how-stupid-are-the-people-of-iowa/article/2576274

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-bomb-isis_56454ccee4b08cda348844bf


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http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/11/13/trump-asks-iowans-how-stupid-are-they-to-believe-carson/?ref=politics

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The speech was in Fort Dodge, Iowa, and that fact is kind of important.

Fort Dodge is the County seat of Webster County, which went for Obama by +5.84% over Romney in 2012, almost identical to his statewide margin of +5.81%. So, Webster County is somewhat of a bellwether for the state and it is no surprise to me that Trump is stumping here. In 2008, Obama beat McCain by +8.51% in Webster County and won the state overall by +9.54. The county was NOT a bellwether in 2004: Bush won the state by +0.63%, but Kerry won Webster County by +3.24%.

In the 2012 Iowa caucuses, Santorum just edged out Romney by +2.05% (26.58% to 24.53%) in Webster County and was the winner of the state overall. In 2008, Huckabee, who won the state in the Caucuses, also won this County by a comparable margin (larger, but comparable). So, in some ways, Webster County is a bellwether both in national presidential politics and also in the GOP nomination process. And not just in the GOP nomination process: in 2008, Obama beat Edwards by +3.6% and he beat Edwards in Webster County by +3%. In 2004, Kerry won the caucuses by 4 points over Edwards and also beat Edwards in this County by 1 point. So, it's just a really good bellwether. As this county goes, so goes the state. So, as I wrote, it's no surprise to me that Trump is trumpublicating here.

So, whatever your views on Trump, it is now obvious to even the most diehard of Trumpinistas that he is constantly breaking Ronald Reagan's 11th commandment. And the big question is: if he does get the GOP nomination, how much of a hayday will the Clinton team have with all the malarky he says?

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