14 November 2015

impreMedia / Latino Decisions FAV/UNFAV battleground poll (Latinos only) from November 9, 2015

Latino Decisions just released  a poll of  424 US-Latino RV spread out over 14 battleground states. The poll has a MoE of +/-4.7%. The poll asked about their priorities for the coming presidential election and their fav/unfav impressions of presidential candidates.

You can download the poll HERE.

Here are the complete FAV/UNFAV results:

Hillary Clinton (D) is at 61 FAV / 27 UNFAV, +34
Donald Trump (R) is at 15 FAV / 71 UNFAV, -56
That is a swing in opinion of 90 points between the two candidates. It cannot get much more lopsided than this.

Furthermore, 67 of that 71 UNFAV for the business tycoon is listed as "VERY UNFAVORABLE", indicating really, really strong negative impressions of him among Latinos, not just lukewarm negative impressions.

If Donald Trump becomes the GOP nominee, then the GOP hast a real problem in it's hand in the Latino vote, plain and simple. Now, FAV/UNFAV does not necessarily translate to electability/unelectability, but a -56 really is impossible to overcome. That's not just "underwater". That is "totally drowned".

Interestingly enough, both of the Republican Latino candidates, Sen. Marco Rubio (FL) and Sen. Ted Cruz (TX) are also underwater, but with a higher "never heard" and "no opinion" combined number, and of course, their deficits of -8 and -16, respectively are not anywhere as extreme as in the case of Donald Trump. Also interesting is the very large "no opinion" number for Dr. Ben Carson.

Furthermore, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are at exactly ZERO percent among "never heard", meaning that both of those candidates have 100% name recognition. And both are at 12-13% among "no opinion". That is a plus for Clinton and a minus for Trump, for very obvious reasons.

For historical purposes, let's compare this to an all-Latino poll taken released on November 2, 2011 and look at Mitt Romney's numbers at that time:

Four years ago, in November, 2011, it was:

Mitt Romney (R) FAV 23 / UNFAV 31, -8

That is a HUGE difference to Trump's -56 deficit among Latinos. Not only that, at that time, 25% of the Latinos polled had not heard of Mitt Romney and another 21% had no opinion of him, so the conventional wisdom among GOP strategists was that the former Gov. of Massachusetts had plenty of room to grow and improve. That was a PLUS for him at the time.

Not so with Donald Trump.

And just for comparison, in that same November 2011 poll, here are President Obama's approval numbers among Latinos:

You can see that at that time, President Obama was actually ever so slightly underwater with Latinos:

Barack Obama (D-inc) approve 48 / disapprove 50, -2.

On election night, 2012, Obama went on to win 71% of the Latino vote. Romney only got 27%, a +47% margin for the President.

Now, look at the enormous negative numbers Trump is earning among Latinos. If these numbers hold, I cannot believe that he can even get to 20% in the US-Latino vote, when all is said and done.

Again, we are talking about US-citizens of Latino descent, who have a right to vote.


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