16 November 2015

2016 polling round-up, 15-30.11.2015: Senatorial / Gubernatorial

2016 Arizona Senatorial GOP primary:

BRC / Rocky Mountain Poll, released 19.11.2015:
700 "Heads of Household", MoE = +/-3.8
of them, 577 RV, MoE = +/-4.2
of them, 226 RRV, MoE = not listed

McCain 41
Ward 11
Van Steenwyck 2
McClusky 1

Margin: McCain +30


2016 Arizona Senatorial GE:

BRC / Rocky Mountain Poll, released 19.11.2015:
700 "Heads of Household", MoE = +/-3.8
of them, 577 RV, MoE = +/-4.2
of them, 226 RRV, MoE = not listed

McCain 37 / Kirkpatrick 31, Margin = McCain +7

2015 Louisiana Gubernatorial Runoff (21.11.2015):

MRI (Market Research Insights), released 16.11.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-4.1

Edwards 53 / Vitter 38, Margin = Edwards +15

JMC Analytics, released 17.11.2015:
635 LV, MoE = +/-3.9

Edwards 51 / Vitter 35, Margin = Edwards +16
breakdown among undecideds, leaning toward*: Edwards 54 / Vitter 38, Margin = Edwards +16

*Some end-polls do this. If these numbers hold, then Vitter can expect little last-minute help from undecided voters.

The internals are interesting:


Red Racing Horses (R) / PMI (R), released 17.11.2015:
359 LV, MoE = +/-5.0

Edwards 48 / Vitter 42, Margin = Edwards +6

The internals are interesting:



MRI (Market Research Insights), released 19.11.2015:
900 LV, MoE = not listed

Edwards 52 / Vitter 40, Margin = Edwards +12

JMC Analytics, released 20.11.2015:
614 LV, MoE = +/-3.9

Edwards 47 / Vitter 43, Margin = Edwards +4

Univ. of New Orleans (UNO), released 20.11.2015:
614 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Edwards 54 / Vitter 34, Margin = Edwards +20


2016 Maryland Senatorial Democratic Primary:

Baltimore Sun / U of Baltimore / Opinion Works, released 22.11.2015:
419 LV, MoE = +/-4.8

Van Hollen 45
Edwards 31
undecided 24

Margin: Van Hollen +14

If Cummings were to join the race, then:

Cummings 40
Van Hollen 28
Edwards 19
Undecided 13

Margin: Cummings +12

2016 Maryland Senatorial Republican Primary:

Baltimore Sun / U of Baltimore / Opinion Works, released 22.11.2015:
419 LV, MoE = +/-4.8

Undecided 59
Szeliga 15
Douglas 9
Glassman 8
Kefalas 5
Seda 4

Margin: Undecideds +44, Szeliga +6 (over Douglas)

2016 South Carolina Senatorial:

PPP (D), released 17.11.2015:
1,290 RV, MoE = +/-2.7

Scott (Inc) 53 / Dickerson 25, Margin = Scott +28

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