16 November 2015

2016 polling round-up, 16-30.11.2015: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


Morning Consult (R), released 17.11.2015:
2,001 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Trump 38
Carson 19
Rubio 7
Cruz 7
Bush 6
-------------
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Paul 2
Christie 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +19


IPSOS / Reuters, released 19.11.2015:
3,418 RV, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 1,299 RRV, MoE = +/-3.1



Margin =  Trump +19 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +23 (RRV only), Trump +18 (IRV, R-leaning only)

and in a 3-man race:



Margin =  Trump +15 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +17 (RRV only), Trump +14 (IRV, R-leaning only)


PPP (D), released 19.11.2015:
1,360 LV, MoE = +/-2.7
of them, 607 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0


Trump 26
Carson 19
Cruz 14
Rubio 13
-----------------
Bush 5
Fiorina 4
Huckabee 4
Christie 3
Kasich 3
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +7

2 way hypotheticals:

Trump 56 / Bush 34, Trump +22
Carson 43 / Rubio 42, Carson +1 (statistical tie)
Carson 50 / Trump 41, Carson +9
Rubio 43 / Cruz 38, Rubio +5
Cruz 46 / Trump 44, Cruz +2 (statistical tie)
Trump 46 / Rubio 44, Trump +2 (statistical tie)

This internal was interesting. I found it to be very disturbing:




Bloomberg / Selzer, released 19.11.2015:
1,002 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
among them, 379 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 24
Carson 20
Rubio 12
Cruz 9
-----------------
Bush 6
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
Paul 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +4

NBC News / Survey Monkey, released 20.11.2015:
5,755 Adults, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 2,440 RRV, MoE = +/-2.9

Trump 18
Carson 18
Cruz 18
Rubio 11
-----------------
Bush 4
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +10

ABC / WAPO, released 21.11.2015:
1,004 Adults, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, (to be reported)

Trump 32
Carson 22
Rubio 11
Cruz 8
-----------------
Bush 6
Christie 3
Fiorina 4
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
Paul 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +10

FOX NEWS poll, released 22.11.2015:
1,016 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 434 RRV, MoE = +/-6.5

Trump 28
Carson 18
Rubio 14
Cruz 14
-----------------
Bush 5
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Kasich 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +10


PRRI (Public Religion Relations Institute), released 23.11.2015:
1,010 Adults, MoE = +/-3.7
of them, 211 RRV, of them 147 RLV



Margin: TIE (Rs), Carson +2 (RRV), Carson +7 (RLV)

The demographics of the poll:


F 55.2 / M 44.8, F+ 10.4
D 30.1 / R 23.2 / I 37.1 / no aff 9.6 , D +6.9,
White 68.6 / Black 10.8 / Latino 10.5

The Economist / YouGov poll, released 25.11.2015:
2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 600 RLV

Trump 36
Rubio 14
Cruz 12
Carson 10
-----------------
Bush 6
Fiorina 4
Paul 4
Kasich 4
Christie 3
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less



Margin: Trump +22 

One-one-one matches:

Rubio 51 / Carson 49, Rubio +2
Cruz 53 / Carson 47, Cruz +6
Cruz 55 / Rubio 45, Cruz +10
Trump 57 / Cruz 43, Trump +14
Trump 57 / Rubio 43. Trump +14
Trump 60 / Carson 40, Trump +20

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 25.11.2015:
1,051 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 523 RRV, MoE = +/-4.3



Margin: Trump +22 


IPSOS/Reuters, released 25.11.2015:
964 Adults, MoE = +/-3.6
of them, 352 RRV, MoE = +/-6.0



Margin =  Trump +24 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +26 (RRV only), Trump +18 (IRV, R-leaning only)

and in a 3-man race:




Margin =  Trump +20 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +21 (RRV only), Trump +22 (IRV, R-leaning only)

IPSOS/Reuters, released 27.11.2015:
346 RRV, MoE = +/-5.2



Margin: Trump +16.1 

It's a little confusing why IPSOS/Reuters, just 2 days after released it's 10-day Core-Approval poll, also published this poll.


GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Colorado:

Quinnipiac, released 18.11.2015:
1,262 RV, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 411 RRV, MoE = +/-4.83

Carson 25
Rubio 19
Trump 17
Cruz 14
-----------------
Fiorina 5
Paul 3
Bush 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Carson +6 (over Rubio)


Florida:

Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 18.11.2015:
829 RV, MoE = +/-3.3

Trump 36
Rubio 18
Carson 15
Cruz 10
Bush 9
-----------------
Paul 4
Kasich 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +18

Iowa:

Morning Consult / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
641 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 29
Carson 17
Rubio 12
Bush 9
Cruz 9
-----------------
Fiorina 4
Christie 3
Paul 3
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +12

CBS Battleground Poll / YouGov, released 22.11.2015:
1,555 RV, MoE = +/-4.6

Trump 30
Cruz 21
Carson 19
Rubio 11
-----------------
Bush 5
Fiorina 4
Christie 2
(Jindal 2)
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +9 (over Cruz)

Quinnipiac, released 24.11.2015:
600 RLV (Likely Republican Caucus Participants), MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 25
Cruz 23
Carson 18
Rubio 13
-----------------
Paul 5
Bush 4
Fiorina 3
Christie 2
Huckabee 2
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +2 (over Cruz, statistical tie)

Here the numbers, by demographic breakdown:




Although it is close right now, if you look deep into the internals, you see that Trump is so far ahead in some categories, he is very likely to stay close to the top of the pile, no matter what:




Assuming that those will be two of the dominant issues for 2016, with such commanding numbers in these two rubriks over a large field of GOP candidates, Trump is looking to be well positioned to win the Caucuses.

Also, Iowans absolutely cannot stand Jeb Bush:


Bush is at -14 FAV/UNFAV among Republicans, while Carson is at +64. That's a 78 point swing.

Iowa Republicans also don't think that Bush can beat Hillary:



Bush's electability, according to Quinnipiac, is -34, while Trump's is +43 and Cruz's is +30. Remember, these are the views of Republicans. No independents or Democrats are supposedly in this mix.  Bush is getting these numbers from Iowa Republicans in spite of holding pretty well nationally.

And for the first time, the Quinnipiac demographics do not include age groups, for some mysterious reason:



Even so, the Demographics are telling. I am supposing that there is pretty good correlation between Evangelical (born-again) Christians and "Very Conservative" and am also thinking that most Tea Party adherents are also within the other two categories as well.  The GOP in Iowa is men.-heavy 61/39 and also less educated: about 2/3 have no college education.


Iowa State Poll, released 26.11.2015 (conducted 01-15.11.2015):
1,074 RV, MoE = +/- (ca.) 3.0

Carson 27.2
Rubio 16.7
Undecided 16.2 
Trump 14.7
no other candidates mentioned in the article

Margin: Carson +10.5 (over Rubio)


Massachusetts:

Suffolk University, released 24.11.2015:
500 LV, MoE = +/-4.4
of them, 134 RLV, MoE = not listed

Trump 32.09
Rubio 17.91
Cruz 10.45
--------------------
Bush 7.46
Carson 5.22
Christie 4.48
Fiorina 4.48
Kasich 2.24
Paul 1.49
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +14.18 (+14.2) - over Rubio.

Nevada:

Morning Consult (R) / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
628 RV MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 38
Carson 18
Rubio 12
--------------------
Cruz 7
Bush 6
Huckabee 2
Fiorina 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +20

New Hampshire:

FOX News poll, released 19.11.2015:
804 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 353 RRV, MoE = +/-7.5

Trump 27
Rubio 13
Cruz 11
Bush 9
Carson 9
Kasich 7
Christie 6
-----------------
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +14


Suffolk Univ. / Boston Globe, released 21.11.2015:
Full poll HERE.
500 RLV + ILV, R-leaning, MoE = +/-4.4

2 scenarios:

Trump 22
Rubio 11
Carson 10
Cruz 9
Bush 8
-----------------
Christie 4
Fiorina 4
Paul 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +11

With Mitt Romney in the mix:

Romney 31
Trump 15
-------------------
Carson 7
Cruz 7
Kasich 6
Rubio 6
Bush 3
Fiorina 3
Christie 2
Paul 2

Margin: Romney +16

Morning Consult (R) / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
530 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 33
Carson 15
Cruz 9
Rubio 9
------------------
Bush 5
Kasich 5
Christie 5
Paul 3
Fiorina 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +18


CBS Battleground Poll / YouGov, released 22.11.2015:
1,336 RV, MoE = +/-5.2

Trump 32
Rubio 13
Carson 10
Cruz 10
------------------
Kasich 8
Bush 6
Fiorina 6
Christie 5
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +19



New Jersey:

Farleigh-Dickinson, released 17.11.2015:
830 RV, MoE = +/-3.9
of them, 307 RRV, MoE = +/-5.6

Trump 31
Rubio 18
Carson 11
Christie 9
----------------------
Cruz 6
Bush 5
Fiorina 5
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +13


Oklahoma: (yes, Oklahoma!)

Sooner Poll / News on 6 / News 9, released 20.11.2015:
794 LV, MoE = +/-3.48
of them, 389 RLV, MoE = +/-5.1

Trump 27.1
Cruz 18.3
Carson 17.5
Rubio 16.3
--------------------
Huckabee 4.3
Fiorina 2.3
Bush 2.2
Paul 2.2
All others 0.5 or less

Margin: Trump +8.8 (over Cruz)

The poll also does percentage breakdowns by congressional district. And 3 questions are blacked-out, could be presidential matchups set for a later release-date.


South Carolina:

Morning Consult (R) / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
627 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 27
Carson 25
Cruz 10
Bush 10
Rubio 10
------------------
Graham 5
Huckabee 2
Paul 2
Fiorina 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +2 (statistical tie)

CBS Battleground Poll / YouGov, released 22.11.2015:
1,509 RV, MoE = +/-4.6

Trump 35
Carson 19
Rubio 16
Cruz 13
------------------
Bush 5
Huckabee 3
Graham 2
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +16


Virginia:

Princeton / UMW, released 16.11.2015:
656 LV, MoE = +/-4.3
Of them, 333 RLV, MoE not listed

Carson 29
Trump 24
Rubio 11
Cruz 10
Bush 5
Fiorina 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 4
Paul 4
all others 1 or less

Margin: Carson +5

Wisconsin:

Marquette University, released 20.11.2015:
803 RV, MoE = +/-4.2


Carson 22.0
Trump 19.3
Rubio 18.6
Cruz 9.1
Bush 5.8
Fiorina 4.9
Christie 4.2

all others 1 or less

Margin: Carson +2.7 (statistical tie)

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