16 November 2015

2016 polling round-up, 15-30.11.2015: DEM Nomination




Morning Consult (R), released 17.11.2015:
2,001 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 57
Sanders 26
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +31



IPSOS / Reuters, released 19.11.2015:
3,418 RV, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 1,299 RRV, MoE = +/-3.1



Margin = Clinton +12 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +21 (DRV only), Sanders +2 (IRV, D-leaning only)


PPP (D), released 19.11.2015:
1,360 LV, MoE = +/-2.7
of them, 538 DLV, MoE = +/-4.2

Clinton 59
Sanders 26
O'Malley 7

Margin: Clinton +33

Bloomberg / Selzer, released 20.11.2015:
1,002 Adult, MoE = +/-3.9

Clinton 55
Sanders 30
O'Malley 3
Margin: Clinton +25

NBC News / Survey Monkey, released 20.11.2015:
5,755 Adults, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 1,983 DRV, MoE = +/-3.1

Clinton 49
Sanders 33
O'Malley 1
Margin: Clinton +16

ABC / WAPO, released 21.11.2015:
1,004 Adults, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, (to be reported)

Clinton 60
Sanders 34
O'Malley 3
Margin: Clinton +26


FOX NEWS poll, released 22.11.2015:
1,016 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 366 DRV, MoE = +/-7.0

Clinton 55
Sanders 32
O'Malley 3

Margin: Clinton +23

PRRI (Public Religion Relations Institute), released 23.11.2015:
1,010 Adults, MoE = +/-3.7
of them, 259 DRV, of them 145 DLV

Margin: Clinton +39 (Ds), Clinton +36 (DRV), Clinton +33 (DLV)



The Economist / YouGov poll, released 25.11.2015:
2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 758 DLV

Clinton 54
Sanders 34
O'Malley 4



Margin: Clinton +20 (DLV), Clinton +38 (Democrats)


Gravis (R) / OANN, released 25.11.2015:
1,051 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 528 DRV, MoE = +/-4.3

Margin: Clinton +27


IPSOS/Reuters, released 25.11.2015:
964 Adults, MoE = +/-3.6
of them, 362 DRV, MoE = +/-5.9


Margin = Clinton +20 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +28 (DRV only), Clinton +20 (IRV, D-leaning only)



DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Arizona: 

BRC / Rocky Mountain Poll, released 19.11.2015:
700 "Heads of Household", MoE = +/-3.8
of them, 577 RV, MoE = +/-4.2
of them, 186 DRV, MoE = +/-7.3

Clinton 47
Sanders 19
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +28

Colorado:

Quinnipiac, released 18.11.2015:
1,262 RV, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 358 DRV, MoE = +/-5.18

Clinton 55
Sanders 27
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +27


Florida:

Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 18.11.2015:
829 RV, MoE = +/-3.3

Clinton 66
Sanders 22
O'Malley 4

Margin: Clinton +44

Iowa:

Morning Consult / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
641 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 55
Sanders 37
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +22


CBS Battleground Poll /YouGov, released 23.11.2015:
1,555 RV, MoE = +/-4.6

Clinton 50
Sanders 45
O'Malley 5

Margin: Clinton +5

Quinnipiac, released 25.11.2015:
543 DLV, MoE = +/-4.2

Clinton 51
Sanders 42
O'Malley 4

Margin: Clinton +9

Within the internals, some interesting breakdowns:



The demographics are also interesting and in some ways, provide a mirror image to the GOP IA electorate demographics:



Iowa State Poll, released 26.11.2015 (conducted 01-15.11.2015):
1,074 RV, MoE = +/- (ca.) 3.0

Clinton 49.5
Sanders 27.8
Undecided 13.7
O'Malley - not listed

Margin: Clinton +21.7

Massachusetts:

Suffolk University, released 24.11.2015:
500 LV, MoE = +/-4.4
of them, 241 DLV, MoE = not listed

Clinton 53.53
Sanders 29.05
O'Malley 2.90

Margin: Clinton +24.48 (+24.5)


Nevada:

Morning Consult (R) / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
628 RV MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 59
Sanders 30
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +29

New Hampshire:

FOX News poll, released 19.11.2015:
804 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 302 DRV, MoE = +/-8.0

Sanders 45
Clinton 44
O'Malley 5

Margin: Sanders +1 (statistical tie)

Morning Consult (R) / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
530 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 48
Sanders 44
O'Malley 3

Margin: Clinton +4


CBS Battleground Poll /YouGov, released 23.11.2015:
1,336 RV, MoE = +/-5.2

Sanders 52
Clinton 45
O'Malley 3

Margin: Sanders +7

New Jersey:

Farleigh-Dickinson, released 17.11.2015:
830 RV, MoE = +/-3.9
of them, 384 DRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 64
Sanders 27
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +36

Oklahoma: (yes, Oklahoma!)

Sooner Poll / News on 6 / News 9, released 20.11.2015:
794 LV, MoE = +/-3.48
of them, 369 DLV, MoE = +/-5.1

Clinton 46.6
(unsure 39.1)
Sanders 12.2
O'Malley 2.2

Margin: Clinton +34.4

The poll also does percentage breakdowns by congressional district. And 3 questions are blacked-out, could be presidential matchups set for a later release-date.

South Carolina:

Morning Consult (R) / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
627 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 64
Sanders 20
O'Malley 0

Margin: Clinton +44


CBS Battleground Poll /YouGov, released 23.11.2015:
1,509 RV, MoE = +/-4.6

Clinton 72
Sanders 25
O'Malley 5

Margin: Clinton +47

Virginia:

Princeton / UMW, released 16.11.2015:
656 LV, MoE = +/-4.3
Of them, 276 DLV, MoE not listed

Clinton 63
Sanders 27
O'Malley 5

Margin: Clinton +36


Wisconsin:

Marquette University, released 20.11.2015:
803 RV, MoE = +/-4.2

Clinton 49.7
Sanders 41.1
O'Malley 1.6

Margin: Clinton +8.6

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