01 November 2015

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.11.2015: Senatorial / Gubernatorial

Colorado Senatorial:

GQR / Democracy Corps, released 09.11.2015:
400 LV, MoE = +/-4.9

Bennet (Inc) 50 / Tipton 44, margin = Bennet +6

Florida Senatorial:

GQR / Democracy Corps, released 09.11.2015:
400 LV, MoE = +/-4.9

Jolly 44 / Murphy 43, margin = Jolly +1

Illinois Senatorial - DEM primary:

Ogden & Fry / The Illinois Observer, released 04.11.2015:
595 DLV, MoE = +/-4.1

Duckworth 59
Undecided 35
Zopp 7

Margin: Duckworth +52 (over Zopp)

McKeon & Assoc. (D), conducted 20.10.2015, released 05.11.2015:
818 DLV, MoE = +/-3.9

Undecided 56
Duckworth 25
Harris 13
Zopp 5


Margin: Duckworth +12 (over Harris)

The poll internals also show the breakdown among Latino voters.

Iowa Senatorial:

PPP (D), released 04.11.2015:
1,668 RV, MoE = +/-2.4

Grassley 54 / Fiegen 30, margin = Grassley +24
Grassley 53 / Hogg 29, margin = Grassley +24
Grassley 52 / Krause 28, margin = Grassley +24

Louisiana Gubernatorial Runoff - 20.11.2015:

JMC Analytics, released 03.11.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Edwards 52 / Vitter 32, margin = Edwards +20


MRI, released 03.11.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-4.1

Edwards 54 / Vitter 38, margin = Edwards +16


Triumph Campaigns (R), released 05.11.2015:
1.818 LV, MoE = +/-3.0


Edwards 49 / Vitter 41, margin = Edwards +8


MRI, released 10.11.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-4.1

Edwards 52 / Vitter 38, margin = Edwards +14


University of New Orleans, released 10.11.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Edwards 56 / Vitter 34, margin = Edwards +22

The internals are interesting:



What is really bouying Edward's campaign is the +16 margin among Independents. He is also doing far better among Republicans than a Democrat usually does. If these numbers hold, it looks to me as if the voters of Louisiana intend to punish David Vitter for a number of indiscretions and it could also be that the Republican endorsement that he got really did help. Either way, in 3 of poll polls, Edwards is now over the 50 Mark,and that is critical.

MarblePort /Hayride (R), released 12.11.2015:
978 LV, MoE = +/-

Edwards 48 / Vitter 42, margin = Edwards +6

There is a reason why this poll is showing vastly different results:

"The racial breakdown of the sample, by the way, is 71 percent white and 27 percent black. That’s about what we expect the electorate to be, though in both the last two major races blacks made up 31 percent of the electorate. Edwards has largely run away from the black vote in this race, however, and in particular he ditched a campaign forum at Southern last night which inflamed the organizers of the event to no end."

Maryland Senatorial - GOP primary:

Gonzales Research (R), released 07.11.2015:
302 RLV, MoE = +/-5.8

Undecided 61.6
Glassman 19.2
Szeliga 10.9
Douglas 4.6
Seda 1.3

Margin = Glassman +8 (way too many undecideds)



North Carolina Gubernatorial:

1,070 LV, MoE = +/-3.0

McCrory (Inc) 40.0 / Cooper 44.8, margin = Cooper +4.8


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Ohio Senatorial:

GQR / Democracy Corps, released 09.11.2015:
400 LV, MoE = +/-4.9

Portman (Inc) 47 / Strickland 47, margin = TIE

Wisconsin Senatorial:

GQR / Democracy Corps, released 09.11.2015:
400 LV, MoE = +/-4.9

Feingold 51 / Johnson 46, margin = Feingold +5

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