01 November 2015

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.11.2015: Presidential D vs. R Matchups

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING



Morning Consult, released 03.11.2015:
2,350 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 43 / Carson 44, margin = Carson +1
Clinton 44 / Trump 44, margin = TIE
Clinton 45 / Bush 39, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 45 / Rubio 39, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 47 / Paul 37, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 46 / Fiorina 36, margin = Clinton +10


Quinnipiac, released 04.11.2015:
1,144 RV, MoE = +/-2.9

Clinton 40 / Carson 50, margin = Carson +10
Clinton 41 / Rubio 46, margin = Rubio +5
Clinton 41 / Christie 46, margin = Christie +5
Clinton 43 / Cruz 46, margin = Cruz +3
Clinton 46 / Trump 43, margin = Clinton +3

Sanders 39 / Carson 51, margin = Carson +12
Sanders 41 / Rubio 47, margin = Rubio +6
Sanders 42 / Christie 45, margin = Christie +3
Sanders 44 / Cruz 45, margin = Cruz +1
Sanders 46 / Trump 44, margin = Sanders +2

NBC / WSJ, released 04.11.2015:
847 RV, MoE = +/-3.37

Clinton 47 / Carson 47, margin = TIE
Clinton 47 / Rubio 44, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 47 / Bush 43, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 50 / Trump 42, margin = Clinton +8

Sanders 46 / Rubio 41, margin = Sanders +5
Sanders 50 / Trump 41, margin = Sanders +9


Zogby Analytics, released 06.11.2015:
1,002 LV, MoE = +/-3.2

Clinton 41 / Trump 37, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 41 / Carson 35, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 42 / Rubio 33, margin = Clinton +9


1,080 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 50 / Carson 48, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 50 / Rubio 45, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 52 / Bush 44, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 53 / Cruz 43, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 53 / Fiorina 43, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 56 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +15

Sanders 45 / Carson 47, margin = Carson +2
Sanders 48 / Rubio 45, margin = Sanders +3
Sanders 51 / Bush 41, margin = Sanders +10
Sanders 51 / Cruz 39, margin = Sanders +12
Sanders 53 / Trump 41, margin = Sanders +12
Sanders 53 / Fiorina 39, margin = Sanders +14


The demographics of the Marist poll are slightly to the left in one rubrik, but only slightly:



However, at the same time, the poll shows F 51 / M 49, whereas F 52 or 53 / M 48 or 47 is far more likely. The poll also shows increased Latino participation, something that others are expecting. So, while the poll shows D+7 partisan identification instead of D+6 from the last presidential election, any "skew" because of this may well be offset by the fact that the F/M vote will also likely be different and Hillary Clinton is likely to sweep the Female vote in 2016.



4,002 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 42 / Carson 43, margin = Carson +1
Clinton 43 / Trump 43, margin = TIE
Clinton 44 / Rubio 39, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 44 / Bush 38, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 45 / Paul37, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 44 / Fiorina 35, margin = Clinton +9

The demographics of the poll show F +6, D+3 and a large percentage of very rich people. When you take the 9% Hispanic (Latino) from the 81% White, then the racial demographics are 72% non hispanic White, 13% Black, 9% Latino, 6% other, right in line with 2012:



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D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING

Florida:

SUSA/Bay News 9 / News 13, released 03.11.2015:
2,444 LV, MoE = +/-2.2

Clinton 43 / Trump 47, margin = Trump +4
Clinton 44 / Carson 47, margin = Carson +3
Clinton 46 / Rubio 45, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 46 / Bush 44, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 48 / Fiorina 42, margin = Clinton +6

Sanders 41 / Trump 50, margin = Trump +9
Sanders 40 / Carson 48, margin = Carson +8
Sanders 44 / Bush 46, margin = Bush +2
Sanders 44 / Rubio 46, margin = Rubio +2
Sanders 46 / Fiorina 43, margin = Sanders +3

Interesting figures for the Latino vote at the link:

FL: Latino vote:

Clinton 56 / Bush 34, margin = Clinton +22
Clinton 57 / Trump 35, margin = Clinton +22
Clinton 60 / Carson 36, margin = Clinton +24
Clinton 64 / Rubio 28, margin = Clinton +36
Clinton 65 / Fiorina 27, margin = Clinton +38

Exit poll, Florida, 2012: Obama +21 (60/39) over Romney

Georgia:

SUSA, released for major media 02.11.2015:
1,554 LV, MoE = +/-2.5

Trump 46 / Clinton 37 / other 12, margin = Trump +9


The internals:


There is a large "other" component in this poll. It is unlikely that Trump and Clinton are tied in the female vote. Also, there is no way to know if the party breakdown is correct, as Georgia does not do VR by party breakdown, only by race and gender. The demographics of the poll lean heavily to the white vote. About 32% of Georgian voters are black, not 28%. This hispanic percentage is pretty right.  There was no exit poll of Georgia in the 2012 presidential election, but in 2008, Obama got 98% of the black vote here. In light of electoral history, it is very unlikely that Hillary is "only" going to get 76% of the Black vote in this state, when all is said and done.


Iowa:

PPP (D), released 04.11.2015:
1,668 RV, MoE = +/-2.4

Clinton 43 / Carson 47, margin = Carson +4
Clinton 43 / Rubio 45, margin = Rubio +2
Clinton 44 / Trump 44, margin = TIE
Clinton 44 / Fiorina 43, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 46 / Cruz 44, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 46 / Huckabee 44, margin = Clinton +2

Clinton 45 / Bush 40, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 43 / Kasich 36, margin = Clinton +7

Clinton 41 / Trump 40 / Webb 9, margin = Clinton +1

Sanders 37 / Carson 47, margin = Carson +10
Sanders 38 / Rubio 45, margin = Rubio +7
Sanders 43 / Trump 44, margin = Trump +1
Sanders 42 / Cruz 43, margin = Cruz +1
Sanders 41 / Bush 41, margin = TIE


Michigan:

EPIC-MRA / Detroit Free Press / WXYZ-TV, released 05.11.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 40 / Carson 46, margin = Carson +6
Clinton 46 / Trump 38, margin = Clinton +8

Sanders 36 / Carson 45, margin = Carson +9
Sanders 48 / Trump 36, margin = Sanders +12


Minnesota:

SUSA, released 03.11.2015 (published online 09.11.2015:
516 DRV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 41 / Carson 50, margin = Carson +9
Clinton 41 / Rubio 47, margin = Rubio +6
Clinton 41 / Fiorina 45margin = Fiorina +4
Clinton 42 / Trump 45, margin = Trump +3
Clinton 43 / Bush 44, margin = Bush +1
Clinton 46 / Cruz 41, margin = Clinton +5


North Carolina:
1,070 LV, MoE = +/-3.0


Clinton 43.5 / Carson 47.9, margin = Carson +4.4
Clinton 45.3 / Rubio 46.4, margin = Rubio +1.1
Clinton 46.6 / Bush 43.0, margin = Clinton +3.6
Clinton 47.9 / Fiorina 41.7, margin = Clinton +6.2
Clinton 49.5 / Trump 38.9, margin = Clinton +10.6

Interesting cross-tabs:












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