01 November 2015

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.11.2015: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


NBC / SurveyMonkey, released 03.11.2015:
8,706 Adults, MoE = +/-1.5
of them, 3,387 RRV, MoE =

Trump 26
Carson 26
Cruz 10
Rubio 9
Bush 5
Fiorina 4
Christie 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 3
Paul 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: TIE


Morning Consult, released 03.11.2015:
2,350 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 937 RRV

Trump 31
Carson 21
Cruz 9
Rubio 7
Bush 7
Christie 4
Huckabee 3
Paul 3
Fiorina 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +10

Quinnipiac, released 04.11.2015:
1,144 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
of them, 502 RRV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 24
Carson 23
Rubio 14
Cruz 13
Bush 4
Christie 3
Kasich 3
Fiorina 3
Paul 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +1 (statistical tie)


IPSOS/Reuters, released 04.11.2015:
1,553 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
of them, 635 RRV, MoE = +/-4.5

Trump 31
Carson 18
Rubio 10
Bush 10
Cruz 6
Fiorina 5
Christie 3
Kasich 3
Huckabee 3
Paul 3
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +13



FOX New poll, released 05.11.2015:
1,230 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 476 RLV, MoE = +/-4.5




Margin: Trump +3 (statistical tie)

This is an important internal in the FOX poll for both Ds and Rs concerning Partisan Identification:


Two weeks ago, it was R+1, this time it is D+5. Either way, both percentages are too high and the Independent percentage is too low.


IPSOS / Reuters, released 05.11.2015:
1,636 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8


of them, 618 RRV, MoE = +/-4.5



Margin =  Trump +10 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +10 (RRV only), Trump +15 (IRV, R-leaning only)

and in a 3-man race:




Margin =  Trump +8 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +7 (RRV only), Trump +12 (IRV, R-leaning only)

3,035 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
Of them, 1,292 DRV

Trump 25
Carson 21
Rubio 12
Cruz 10
Bush 4
Fiorina 4
Paul 2
Kasich 2
Huckabee 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +4

344 RLV, MoE = +/-5.4

Trump 30
Carson 17
Rubio 10
Cruz 8
Bush 7
Paul 4
Fiorina 2
Kasich 2
Huckabee 2
Christie 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +13

2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3-0
of them, 496 RRV


Trump 32
Carson 18
Rubio 13
Cruz 10
Huckabee 4
Paul 4
Bush 3
Fiorina 3
Christie 3
Jindal 2
All others less than 1, 

Margin: Trump +14


1,080 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 431 RRV and IRV, R-leaning, MoE = +/-5.7


Carson 24
Trump 23
Rubio 12
Cruz 8
Bush 8
Paul 5
Kasich 4
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Christie 2
All others less than 1, Pataki at 0.0 (NULL respondents picked him)

Margin: Carson +7.1

Although Rubio has more often than not pulled into third place, among some groups, Ted Cruz does better. Here are some internals:




and this internal over Trump, which shows a marked change from early October:



-and-


That internal is probably the most telling of all. If 37% of the GOP electorate is dead-set against Trump, as long as the field is crowded, then he has a real problem on his hands. On the other hand, only 3% are dead-set against Carson. That is a huge chasm between the two front-runners.


4,002 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,567 RRV, MoE =+/-3.0

Trump 34
Carson 19
Bush 8
Rubio 7
Cruz 7
Huckabee 3
Fiorina 2
Christie 2
Paul 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +15

672 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 27
Carson 20
Rubio 16
Cruz 13
Bush 8
Fiorina 4
Others: either not polled or not listed

Margin: Trump +7

This internal text within the poll was interesting:



IPSOS-Reuters, from 13.11.2015:
534 RRV, MoE not yet listed, likely +/-4.0



Margin: Trump +14.4

BTW, here is how the headlines look at the Reuters main polling site:





GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING


Arizona:

BRC (Behavior Research Center) / "Rocky Mountain Poll", released 11.11.2015:
700 "Heads of Household", MoE = +/-3.8
among them, 226 RRV, MoE = +/-6.8

Carson 23
Trump 21
Rubio 15
Bush 8
Cruz 8
All others put together 6

Margin: Carson +2 (statistical tie)

California:

USC Dornside  /LA Times / SurveyMonkey, released 05.11.2015:
3,035 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
Of them, 1,292 DRV


Trump 20
Carson 19
Rubio 14
Cruz 11
Fiorina 6
Bush 4
Paul 3
Christie 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +1 (statistical tie)



Florida:

Viewpoint Florida, released 02.11.2015:
2,047 RRV, MoE = +/-2.2

Trump 26.81
Rubio 16.28
Carson 15.07
Cruz 12.41
Bush 12.07
other 4.67
Fiorina 4.40

Margin: Trump +10.53 (+10.5)

Alternate ballot, without Jeb Bush:

Trump 26.64
Rubio 23.90
Carson 15.02
Cruz 12.44
other 7.29
Fiorina 5.66

Margin: Trump +2.74 (+2.7)

Were these numbers to hold, then it looks as if Rubio would quite logically benefit from a Bush exit from the race.

Alternate ballot, without Marco Rubio:

Trump + Other 28.11
Carson 19.02
Cruz 18.88
Bush 17.08
Fiorina 5.16

Margin: Trump +9.09 (+9.1)

It looks like this pollster screwed up this graphic, for both Trump and "other" are given the same color of "brown".  Hard to know what to divine from this matchup, but Bush does jump some in the absence of Rubio on the ballot.

These internals are interesting:


-and-


The actual demographics of Florida are: 56% White, 24% Latino, 16% Black,  19% over 65. The demographics of the GOP electorate in Florida are nowhere close to the actual demographics of the state.

SUSA/Bay News 9 / News 13, released 03.11.2015:
2,444 LV, MoE = +/-2.2
of them, 922 RLV, MoE =

Trump 37
Carson 17
Rubio 16
Cruz 10
Bush 7
Fiorina 3
Kasich 3

All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +20

Opinion Savvy / Fox 13 / Florida Times-Union, released 12.11.2015:
806 RLV, MoE = +/-3.4

Trump 22.7
Carson 22.3
Rubio 17.9
Cruz 12.4
Bush 10.9
Fiorina 4.7
Christie 2.9
Kasich 2.8
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +0.4 (statistical tie, near mathematical tie)

The internals are more than fascinating. According to the poll, Trump only gets 4.5% of the GOP Latino vote:



But the devil is in the details. Here are the overall demographics of the poll, first by race:


So, according to the poll, 90% of the GOP electorate is White, only 1% (!!!) is Black, but 8% is Latino.But in a poll of 806 RLV, only 64 in the Latino subgroup must mean a +/-10 MoE, so the statistic is essentially meaningless, and the Black vote statistic, with only 8 Black Republicans who responded, is even more meaningless.

And once again, this poll joins a slew of other polls that show how old the FL-GOP electorate is:


According to Opinion Savvy, 82% of FL-GOP voters are 45 or over. This is a long-term problem for the GOP, across the nation.


Georgia:

SUSA, released 02.11.2015:
629 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 35
Carson 28
Rubio 12
Cruz 8
Bush 4
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Kasich 2

Margin: Trump +7

SUSA publishes the major internals in long-column format:



The GOP electorate in Georgia is 55M/45F (M +10), 85 White/ 5 Black / 6 Latino and 58% over 50 years old (25% over 65)

However, the actual demographics of the state of Georgia are: M 48.8 / F 51.2 (F +2.4), 54.3 White / 31.5 Black / 9.3 Latino, 12.4% over 65.

The Demographics of the Republican Party in Georgia are way out of line with the actual demographics of the state.

In the Georgia GOP primary from 2012, only 3% of the Republican electorate in that state was Black. It was 94% White.


Opinion Savvy / Fox 5 Atlanta, released 12.11.2015:
674 RLV, MoE = +/-3.7


Carson 26.3
Trump  24.0
Cruz 13.7
Rubio 8.6
Bush 7.6
Fiorina 6.1
Christie 3.6
Kasich 1.8
Huckabee 1.5
Paul 1.2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Carson +2.3 (statistical tie) 

The internals, as for the Florida poll, are interesting, just as they were for Florida above, from the same pollster:



In this poll, Trump gets 51% of the "Latino" vote, but wait:



According to the poll, the GA GOP electorate is 97% White in a state that is 59% White, 30% Black, 8% Latino and 3% Asian. In this poll, all of 7 people are either Latino Republicans,  Black Republicans or "other" Republicans, which makes me wonder how the pollster could calculate 51.4% for Trump in the Latino vote based on 7 people, because 4 out of  7 = 57.14%, so what did they so, split a person in half, or what? Seriously, with a subgroup THIS small, there is no way to make any kind of statistic and for 7 LRLV, the MoE must be about +/-20%!

Look at the age of the GOP in GA:


Similar to Florida, 77% of  GA GOPers are older than 45. In Florida, according to this pollster, it's 82%. This is one more piece of evidence that the GOP is considerably older and far more considerably Whiter than the Democratic Party in pretty much every state that has a diverse demographic. Again, and I hate to sound like a broken record about this, this is a long-term problem for the GOP.

Iowa:

PPP (D), released 02.11.2015:
638 RLV, MoE = +/-3.9

Trump 22
Carson 21
Cruz 14
Rubio 10
Huckabee 6
Jindal 6
Bush 5
Fiorina 5
Paul
Kasich 2
Santorum 2

Margin: Trump +1 (statistical tie)

Interesing jump for Jindal in the PPP Iowa polling.

One-on-one matchups:

Trump 55 / Bush 37, Trump +18
Carson 55 / Trump 35, Carson +20
Cruz 53 / Trump 36, Cruz +17
Rubio 51 / Trump 40, Rubio +11

Three interesting internals from the poll:


That is a verifiable shift in the thinking of the Republican electorate vis-a-vis similar questions from the past.

-and-


-and-

According to the PPP (D), poll, the Republican electorate in Iowa is 73% over 45.

Monmouth College / Douglas Fulmer & Associates, released 02.11.2015:
874 RLV, MoE = +/-3.4

Carson 27.5
Trump 20.4
Cruz 15.1
Rubio 10.1
Bush 9.0
Fiorina 4.1
Christie 2.3
Kasich 1.9
Huckabee 1.7
Paul 1.6
Jindal 1.3
All others less than 1, Pataki at 0.0 (NULL respondents picked him)

Margin: Carson +7.1

Interesting demographic of Iowa, from that poll:

According to Monmouth, 76.3% of the Iowa Caucus Republicans are 45 and older. This makes for a stark contrast to the Democratic Party demographics and is very in-line with the PPP (D) poll quoted above this one, which shows 73% for the same large rubrik.

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 05.11.2015:
935 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
Of them, 356 RLV

Trump 28
Carson 22
Rubio 18
Cruz 9
Bush 6
Fiorina 5
Kasich 2
Paul 2
Santorum 2
Christie 2

Margin: Trump +6


CNN/ORC, released 06.11.2015:
2,009 Adults, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 498 DLV

Trump 25
Carson 23
Rubio 13
Cruz 11
Bush 5
Fiorina 4
Jindal 4
Christie 3
Graham 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2
Huckabee 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +2

Enlightening CNN/ORC internals from this poll:



-and-




Minnesota:

SUSA, released 03.11.2015 (published online 09.11.2015:
516 RRV, MoE = +/-4.4


Trump 26
Carson 19
Rubio 16
Bush 9
Cruz 4
Fiorina 4
Paul 3
Huckabee 2


Margin: Trump +7



New Hampshire:

Monmouth College, released 02.11.2015:
410 RLV, MoE = +/-4.8



Margin: Trump +10

This internal shows some shifts in the how the New Hampshire Republican electorate views the candidates.



400 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9



Margin: Trump +2 (statistical tie)



600 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

of them, 330 RRV, MoE = +/-5.4




Margin: Trump +17


New Jersey:

1,456 RV, MoE = +/-2.6
of them, 481 RRV, MoE = +/-4.5


Trump 31
Carson 16
Rubio 15
Christie 8
Cruz 7
Bush 4
Fiorina 4
Kasich 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +15




North Carolina:

1,070 LV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 466 RLV

Carson 31.0
Trump 19.0
Rubio 9.7
Cruz 9.7
Bush 4.6
Fiorina 3.4
Huckabee 3.7
Paul 1.9
Christie 1.8
Kasich 1.3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Carson +12

South Carolina:

Monmouth University, 09.11.2015:
401 RLV, Moe = +/-4.0





Margin: Carson +1 (statistical tie)
This reflects a 16 point shift in the South Carolina electorate over August 2015.
Carson is making inroads into the South.

Monmouth also polled two other variations of the race:






In a four way race, without Rubio or Bush, Carson beats Trump by +9 in South Carolina. But if Carson and Trump are not in the race and Rubio is in, Rubio benefits greatly. Of course, these are just hypotheticals and not all that likely to reflect reality, since SC is one of the first four primary contests in the nation.

And this demographic shows that the SC Republican Party is 96% white and 70% of it is over the age of 50:


It is also 52 M / 48 F, and 65% evangelical.




787 RLV, MoE = +/-3.5

Trump 25
Carson 21
Cruz 15
Rubio 13
Bush 8
Fiorina 5
Kasich 3
Graham 2
Paul 2
Huckabee 2


Margin: Trump +4


Texas:

UT / Texas Tribune, released 12.11.2015:
1,200 RV, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 542 RRV, MoE = +/-4.21

Trump 27
Cruz 27
Carson 13
Rubio 9
Bush 4
Fiorina 4
Paul 4
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less (Gilmore, Graham, Pataki at exactly 0)


Margin: Mathematical absolute tie (Trump/Cruz)

Also, one important internal:


Texans absolutely do not want Jeb Bush. Texas is the home state of his brother, our 43rd President, George W. Bush, Jr.

xxx

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