14 November 2015

2015/2016 polling wrap-up: 01-15.11.2015

There has been a huge amount of polling in November, to say the least, so let's get started.

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING

Week 1:
NBC / SurveyMonkey, released 03.11.2015: absolute tie (Trump 26 / Carson 26)
Morning Consult, released 03.11.2015: Trump +10
Quinnipiac, released 04.11.2015: Trump +1 (statistical tie)
IPSOS/Reuters, released 04.11.2015: Trump +13
FOX New poll, released 05.11.2015: Trump +3 (statistical tie)
IPSOS / Reuters, released 05.11.2015  Trump +10 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +10 (RRV only), Trump +15 (IRV, R-leaning only)
USC Dornside  /LA Times / SurveyMonkey, released 05.11.2015: Trump +4
Zogby Analytics, released 06.11.2015: Trump +13

Average: Trump +8.63

Week 2:

The Economist / YouGov, released 10.11.2015: Trump +14
McClatchy-Marist Poll, released 10.11.2015: Carson +1 (statistical tie)
Morning Consult, released 10.11.2015: Trump +15
Rasmussen Reports, released 13.11.2015: Trump +7
IPSOS-Reuters, from 13.11.2015: Trump +14.4

Average (as of 14.11.2015): Trump +9.88
Two-week average: Trump +9.26


Trump has been ahead in 11 of 13 polls, Carson was ahead in 1 and there was one absolute tie. There were also three statistical ties, but on the average, Trump is still decidedly ahead nationally, no doubt about it.


GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Arizona:
BRC (Behavior Research Center) / "Rocky Mountain Poll", released 11.11.2015: Carson +2 (statistical tie)

California:
USC Dornside  /LA Times / SurveyMonkey, released 05.11.2015: Trump +1 (statistical tie)

Florida:
Viewpoint Florida, released 02.11.2015: Trump +10.5
SUSA/Bay News 9 / News 13, released 03.11.2015: Trump +20
Opinion Savvy / Fox 13 / Florida Times-Union, released 12.11.2015: Trump +0.4
Average: Trump +6.97 (+7)


Georgia:
SUSA, released 02.11.2015: Trump +7
Opinion Savvy / Fox 5 Atlanta, released 12.11.2015: Carson +2.3
Average: Trump +2.35 (+2.4 - statistical tie)

Iowa:
PPP (D), released 02.11.2015: Trump +1 (statistical tie)
Monmouth College / Douglas Fulmer & Associates, released 02.11.2015: Carson +7.1
Gravis (R) / OANN, released 05.11.2015: Trump +6
CNN/ORC, released 06.11.2015: Trump +2
Average: Trump +0.48 (+0.5 - statistical tie)

Minnesota:
SUSA, released 03.11.2015 (published online 09.11.2015: Trump +7

New Hampshire:
Monmouth College, released 02.11.2015: Trump +10
MassINC/WBUR/NPR, released 04.11.2015: Trump +2 (statistical tie)
Gravis (R), released 14.11.2015: Trump +17
Average: Trump +9.7

New Jersey:
Quinnipiac, released 10.11.2015: Trump +15

North Carolina:
Elon University, released 05.11.2015; Carson +12

South Carolina:
Monmouth University, 09.11.2015: Carson +1
PPP (D), released 10.11.2015: Trump +4
Average: Trump +1.5 (statistical tie)

Texas:
UT / Texas Tribune, released 12.11.2015: absolute tie (Trump 27 / Cruz 27)

That makes for 11 states that were polled vis-a-vis the 2016 Republican nomination, and a total of 20 state polls. Based on the polling, we see that Arizona, California, Georgia, Iowa, South Carolina and Texas may become very competitive battlegrounds, whereas Trump is decidedly ahead in Florida, Minnesota, New Hampshire and New Jersey. Carson is securely ahead in North Carolina.

But there are three big stories to make out of the statewide polling:

-The South is not as secure for Trump as polling had showed before, but he is absolutely dominating in the Northeast.

-If you look at the toplines, you will see that Rubio has risen to 3rd place almost everywhere, while Bush has fallen to 5th or 6th place. More often than not, we now see four GOPers in double digits: Trump, Carson, Rubio and Cruz. Fiorina and Kasich have receded some. Jindal pops up now and then with a number above 1, but with a 70% disapproval rating in his home state, I doubt he is going to be staying in the race all that much longer. Huckabee is undewhelming, especially in the South. He is simply not getting the traction he once had in 2008. Santorum if often at 0, right along with Graham, Gilmore and Pataki. In fact, a number of pollsters have simply stopped polling the bottom 3 at all. Paul is the odd-man out in every possible way. Sometimes he pops up at 5%, sometimes he is at 0. In polling that has IRV, Republican leaning in the survey group, he tends to do better.

-California is one of the large primaries and will have the largest load of delegates to deliver. For the first time in a long time, the largest state in our Union, in the case of a tightly contested GOP delegate battle, could play THE decisive role and not just be the ATM for the candidates who like to go their just to fundraise. It should also be noted that Carly Fiorina is not doing better in her home-state of California than anywhere else.

All of the polling numbers (toplines) and many internals to the above stats can be found HERE.

What remains to be seen is how Carson's many tales of his past (which are being disputed for their veracity) and Trump's major meltdown from last Thursday are both going to play out in the next two weeks in polling. Meanwhile, Rubio continues to rise, almost invisibly, one could think. And Cruz is still pulling in a large amount of money.



DEM NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING

Week 1:
NBC / WSJ, released 02.11.2015: Clinton +31
Morning Consult, released 03.11.2015: Clinton +30
Quinnipiac, released 04.11.2015: Clinton +18
FOX New poll, released 05.11.2015: Clinton +25
IPSOS / Reuters, released 05.11.2015Clinton +18 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +29 (DRV only), Clinton +2 (IRV, D-leaning only)
USC Dornside  /LA Times / SurveyMonkey, released 05.11.2015: Clinton +20

Week 1 average: Clinton +25.5 (blowout margin)

Week 2:
USC Dornside  /LA Times / SurveyMonkey, released 05.11.2015: Clinton +20
The Economist / YouGov, released 10.11.2015: Clinton +28
Morning Consult, released 10.11.2015: Clinton +26
CBS News / NYT, released 12.11.2015: Clinton +19
McClatchy/Marist Poll, released 13.11.2015: Clinton +22
IPSOS/Reuters, from 13.11.2015: Clinton +22.5

Week 2 average: Clinton +22.9 (blowout margin)

Just to repeat from the last polling round up: in 2008, in both Pennsylvania and Ohio, Clinton bested Pres. Obama in the primaries by between 8-10 points and she won almost every single county in both of those states. So, you can just imagine what a +22.5% margin means. More importantly, since Vice Pres. Biden clearly and unequivocally stated that he is not going to run, Clinton has definitely profited from this: her numbers are back in the upper 50s more often than not,and she is also hitting the 60 mark now and then. Most pundits and analysts are already saying that this race is over with.


DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING


California:
USC Dornside  /LA Times / SurveyMonkey, released 05.11.2015: Clinton +16

Florida:
SUSA/Bay News 9 / News 13, released 03.11.2015: Clinton +42 (Tsunami Margin)

Georgia:
SUSA, released for major media 02.11.2015: Clinton +57 (Tsunami Margin)

Iowa:
PPP (D), released 02.11.2015: Clinton +32
Monmouth University / Douglas Fulmer & Associates, released 03.11.2015: Clinton +14.1
Gravis (R) / OANN, released 05.11.2015: Clinton +32
CNN/ORC, released 06.11.2015: Clinton +18
Average: Clinton +24

Illinois:
McKeon &Assoc. (D), conducted 20.10.2015, released 05.11.2015: Clinton +31

Minnesota:
SUSA, released 03.11.2015 (published online 09.11.2015: Clinton +44 (Tsunami Margin)

New Hampshire:
Monmouth University / Douglas Fulmer & Associates, released 03.11.2015: Clinton +3 (statistical tie)
Gravis (R), released 14.11.2015: Clinton +19
Average: Clinton +11

New Jersey:
Quinnipiac, released 10.11.2015: Clinton +33

North Carolina:
Elon University, released 05.11.2015Clinton +33.1

South Carolina:
CNN/ORC, released 04.11.2015: Clinton +66 (Tsunami Margin)
Winthrop University, released 05.11.2015: Clinton +66 (Tsunami Margin)
 -You are not seeing double. Both of those SC polls provided exactly the same results.
Monmouth University, released 10.11.2015: Clinton +47
PPP (D), released 10.11.2015: Clinton +54
Average: Clinton +58.3 (Tsunami Margin)

This is also the first time that South Carolina has been polled so intensively.

Texas:
UT / Texas Tribune, released 12.11.2015: Clinton +31

So, that makes for 11 states polled for the DEM nomination in this time-span, and a total 18 polls, 17 of which are massive double-digit margins for Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders. In Iowa, where he was once competitive, he is now behind, on the aggregate, by 24 points. In New Hampshire Clinton, who was trailing Sanders, has an aggregate +11. In California, she is winning by 16 points and everywhere else, she starts at 30 points up on Bernie and climbs to Tsunami proportions in the Palmetto State. This is more statistical evidence that the DEM race is essentially over.  Now, the next two weeks can show any changes that may occur based on Saturday night's Democratic Debate from Iowa, but unless Clinton commits some kind of egregious error, I am not really sure that these numbers are going to change all that much.

All of the toplines DEM polls listed above and many, many very enlightening internals can be found HERE.

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING



1.) Morning Consult, released 03.11.2015:  6 Clinton matchups, she loses 1 (to Carson), there is one tie (Trump) and she wins the other 4 by between +6 and +10

2.) Quinnipiac, released 04.11.2015: much more pessimistic about the DEMS. 10 matchups, 4 Clinton vs. GOP, 5 Sanders vs. GOP. In both cases, Clinton and Sanders lose to 4 GOPers but beat Trump. The order of GOP margins is the same for both candidates, with Carson having the largest lead and Cruz having the leanest.

3.) NBC / WSJ, released 04.11.2015: 6 matchups, 4 Clinton vs. GOP, 2 Sanders vs. GOP. Clinton wins 3 of 4, ties 1 (Carson), Sanders wins 2 of 2. The biggest wins are against Trump.

4.) Zogby Analytics, released 06.11.2015: 3 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she wins all three. The toplines are ridiculously low for all candidates. Typical Zogby malarky.

5.) McClatchy-Marist Poll, released 10.11.2015:  12 matchups, 6 Hillary vs. GOPers, also 6 for Sanders. Hillary wins all 6, Sanders wins 5, loses 1. The biggest win is against Trump and Fiorina, while the narrowest margins are against Carson.

6.) Morning Consult, released 10.11.2015: just like the Morning Consult above, 6 Clinton matchups, she loses 1 (to Carson), there is one tie (Trump) and she wins the other 4 by between +5 and +9.

That makes for 41 D vs. R matchups on the national level, of which the Ds won the majority. And the D margins are expanding again.



D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING


Florida:
SUSA/Bay News 9 / News 13, released 03.11.2015: 10 matchups, 5 for Clinton, 5 for Sanders. Clinton wins 3, loses 3. Sanders wins only 1, loses 4. Both beat Fiorina. But both lose to Trump.

The poll also does a breakdown by the latino vote, which you can see at the link below.

Georgia:
SUSA, released for major media 02.11.2015: 1 matchup, Trump vs. Clinton. Trump wins by +9.

Iowa:
PPP (D), released 04.11.2015: 15 matchups total, 8 Clinton vs. GOP (two-way), 5 Sanders vs. GOP and 1 Clinton vs. GOP (three-way race, against Webb). Clinton loses 2, ties 1, wins 5, also wins the three-way (barely). Sanders loses 4, ties one. Most of the margins are well within the MoE.

Michigan:
EPIC-MRA / Detroit Free Press / WXYZ-TV, released 05.11.2015: this is a strange one. 4 matchups, both Hillary and Sanders against Carson and Trump. Both lose to Carson by 6 to 9 points, but both easily beat Trump by 8 to 12 points.

Minnesota:
SUSA, released 03.11.2015 (published online 09.11.2015: a surprise poll. 6 matchups. Clinton wins only 1, loses 5, in a state that is a 10-for-10 D state in Presidential electoral politics.

North Carolina:
Elon University, released 05.11.2015; 5 Clinton vs. GOP matchups. Clinton loses 2, wins 3. Most are within the MoE, but she beats Trump in the Tarheel State by close to 11 points (Obama won here by +0.29 in 2008, Romney picked up the state by +2.04 in 2012). The cross-tabs to this poll are fascinating.

So, we had direct D-vs-R polling in 6 states, for a total of  41 matchups. There were also 41 matchups at the national level, so that makes for 82 matchups total in D-vs-R territory.

All of the toplines and many internals can be found HERE.


2015-2016 Senatorial/Gubernatorial polling:


HERE you will find toplines and internals for polling for Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin. The Lousisiana data is the most pressing, since the runoff is coming up on November 21st, and that data shows Democrat Jon Bel Edwards securely ahead of David Vitter in the runoff election. The Louisiana polling aggregate for the Jungle Primary, in contrast to the Kentucky polling,was right on target, so I will be interested to see how this plays out next weekend.

HERE you will find some FAV/UNFAV numbers, but I have had little time to really flesh out this category. The most stunning numbers were the Jindal governatorial fav/unfav values, which you can see at the link.


The long and short of it is that Trump is continuing to lead nationally in the GOP nomination battle, but the state to state out look is far more "battlegroundy".

On the DEM side, Hillary Clinton is cruising.













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