26 October 2015

Special polling round up: 15-23.10.2015

Instead of the usual two-week window for round-ups that I post in many places, due to the interesting nature of the last 11 days or so, I decided to put out a one week round-up, the main reason being: Hillary Clinton.

On the 13th was the Democratic debate.  In the week that followed, former VA Sen. Webb dropped out of the race, Vice-President Biden announced that he was not running and then Lincoln Chafee also dropped out of the Democratic races, thus quickly clearing the field to just three people and only two real contenders, with Clinton statistically significantly ahead. This means in clear-text that the DEM polling to date that often showed two sets of numbers (DEM field with Biden, DEM field without Biden) will as of now only show one set of numbers and since in almost every case, the absence of Biden from the polling increased Clinton's lead over Sanders or, in the case of New Hampshire, decreased Sander's lead over Clinton, there is not doubt whatsoever that Clinton will profit from V.P. Biden closing the window on a presidential run.

And then there were the 11-hour long Benghazi hearings, televised all over the place, where former Secretary of State Clinton dominated and the Republicans were unable to elicit their sought-for "gotcha" moment.

Put all of these things together and there is no doubt that Clinton currently has the wind at her back - and this should show in polling results starting from the 25th of October or so.

So, let's look at the October week 3 numbers:

GOP nomination - National:

NBC/SurveyMonkey, released 16.10.2015: Trump +5 (was at +15 in the previous poll)
IPSOS/Reuters, dated 14.10.2015, released 16.10.2015: Margin =  Trump +13 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +14 (RRV only), Trump +7 (IRV, R-leaning only)*
NBC/WSJ, released 19.10.2015: Trump +3
CNN / ORC, released 20.10.2015: Trump +5
Monmouth University, released 20.10.2015: Trump +10
Morning Consult, released 20.10.2015: Trump +26
ABC/WAPO, released 20.10.2015: Trump +10
IPSOS/Reuters, released 22.10.2015:  Margin =  Trump +15 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +13 (RRV only), Trump +12 (IRV, R-leaning only)

We see 8 national polls over 7 days and see a positive jump in Trump's numbers as of polls released on 20.10.2015.  One poll is a repeater, so if you take the first IPSOS/Reuters out of the equation and average the 7 polls, then it is: Trump +10.3, a landslide margin over 2nd place Dr. Ben Carson - nationally.

GOP Nomination - State Polling:

Iowa:
Quinnipiac, released 21.10.2015:  Carson +8
Selzer / Des Moines Register / Bloomberg, released 23.10.2015; Carson +9
Average: Carson +8.5

Massachusetts:
Emerson College Poll, released 20.10.2015: Trump +33.9

New Hampshire:
PPP (D), released 20.10.2015: Trump +7
Bloomberg / Saint Anselm / Purple Strategies, released 21.10.2015: Trump +7
Average: Trump +7

Wisconsin:
St. Norbert / WPR / WPT, released 21.10.2015: Carson +2

There was not a deluge of GOP nomination state-polling, but the results from Iowa indeed reflect a change in Dr. Ben Carson's favor and the two margins are very similat to each other. Carson is also slightly ahead in Wisconsin, but the margin is well within the MoE and therefore, it is a statistical tie. In Massachusetts, Donald Trump has a blowout-landslide lead over the field.

What remains to be seen is out the strange Trump tweet about Iowan's brains being drug addled if they are favoring Carson - and how that will play in the next round of polling.

All of the toplines, survey group and some internals for all of the GOP data is HERE to be found.


DEM nomination - National:

NBC/SurveyMonkey, released 16.10.2015: Clinton +14 (with Biden in the mix)
IPSOS/Reuters, dated 14.10.2015, released 16.10.2015:  Margin = Clinton +17 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +26 (DRV only), Clinton +4 (IRV, D-leaning only- all with Biden in the mix)
CNN/ORC, released 19.10.2015: Clinton +16 (with Biden in the mix)
Monmouth University, released 19.10.2015: Clinton +27 (with Biden in the mix), Clinton +33 (without Biden)
NBC/WSJ, released 19.10.2015: Clinton +20 (with Biden in the mix), Clinton +25 (without Biden)
ABC/ WAPO, released 20.10.2015: Clinton +31 (with Biden in the mix)
Morning Consult, released 20.10.2015:  Clinton +32 (WITHOUT Biden in the mix)
IPSOS/Reuters, released 22.10.2015: Margin = Clinton +10 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +16 (DRV only), Sanders +7 (IRV, D-leaning only - all with Biden in the mix)

As with the GOP field, this makes for 8 polls in less than seven days, with one repeater. With both the Monmouth and NBC/ WSJ polls, we can see that Clinton's margin over Sanders rises by 5 points in both polls without Biden in the mix.  Since Biden is definitely not running, for the averages, I am taking the values that can be taken without Biden to average, so the average of 7 polls (excluding the first IPSOS/Reuters) is: Clinton +23.9, a very large landslide margin. And in a number of those polls, Clinton is back over the 50 mark again. As was the case with Donald Trump and the Republican field, Clinton's numbers also dramatically improved as of the 19th of October (it was the 20th for the GOP). There is no statistical doubt that Hillary Clinton is the prohibitive front-runner within the Democratic field.


DEM nomination - State polling:

Florida:
University of N. Florida (UNF), released 21.10.2015; Clinton +38.7 (with Biden in the mix)

Iowa:
Selzer / Des Moines Register / Bloomberg, released 22.10.2015: Clinton +5 (with Biden in the mix), Clinton +7 (without Biden)
Quinnipiac, released 23.10.2015: Clinton +11 (without Biden)
Average: Clinton +9

Massachusetts:
Emerson College Poll, released 20.10.2015: Clinton +23.8 (without Biden), Clinton at almost 60%.

New Hampshire:
Suffolk University / Boston Globe, released 16.10.2015: Clinton +1.4 (with Biden in the mix)
Franklin Pierce / Boston Herald, released 18.10.2015: Sanders +8 (with Biden in the mix), Sanders +10 (without Biden)
PPP (D), released 20.10.2015: Clinton +8 (with Biden in the mix)
MassINC/WBUR/NPR, released 20.10.2015: Clinton +4 (with Biden in the mix)
Bloomberg / Saint Anselm / Purple Strategies, released 21.10.2015: Sanders +5 (with Biden in the mix)
Average: Sanders +0.32

Wisconsin:
St. Norbert / WPR / WPT, released 21.10.2015Clinton +2 (with Biden in the mix), Clinton +5 (without Biden)

The state polling for the DEMS also shows some surprises, namely, that Hillary Clinton is regaining ground in New Hampshire, is cruising in Massachusetts, is now statistically significantly ahead in Iowa, but it is surprisingly close in Wisconsin, a possible new battleground opportunity for Bernie Sanders.

All of the toplines, survey group and some internals for all of the DEM data is HERE to be found.

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING

CNN/ORC, released 19.10.2015:  Clinton and Sanders vs. Carson and Trump (4 matchups). Trump loses both. Carson wins both.

NBC/WSJ, released 19.10.2015: Clinton and Sanders vs. Rubio, Carson and Cruz (6 matchups), all D wins.

Morning Consult, released 20.10.2015: Clinton vs. 6 GOPers. She wins all 6 matchups.

Rasmussen Reports, released 20.10.2015; Clinton vs. Trump and Fiorina. Loses to Trump by 2, wins over Fiorina by 6. The topline numbers are ridiculously low, practically impossible for this stage in the game.


D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING


New Hampshire:
PPP (D), released 21.10.2015: Clinton vs. 9 GOPers, Sanders and Biden, each vs. 3 GOPers (15 matchups total). The three common denominators are: Rubio, Carson and Trump. Clinton ties Kasich, beats the other 8. Sanders and Biden beat all of their opponents. The New Hampshire poll was released on the day that Vice-President Biden announced that he was not running for president.  These numbers reflect a stark improvement for Hillary Clinton over last month. New Hampshire is now a 5-for-6 Democratic state on the presidential level, having gone for the Democratic candidate in every presidential cycle since 1992, excepting 2000,, but it was a hotly contested battleground state in both 2000 and 2004. Some pollsters claimed that it was a battleground in 2012, but Obama won the state easily by +6, three time the margin with which Romney won North Carolina.

Wisconsin:
St. Norbert / WPR / WPT, released 21.10.2015: Clinton, Sanders and Biden against Carson, Bush and Trump. The DEMS win all 9 matchups. Trump does the worst, with Clinton +11, Sanders +18 and Biden +19 over Trump. Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by +14 and in 2012 by +7. Wisconsin is now a 7-for-7 Democratic state on the presidential level, having gone for the Democratic candidate in every presidential cycle since 1988, but it was a hotly contested battleground state in both 2000 and 2004. Some pollsters claimed that it was a battleground in 2012, but Obama won the state easily by +7, roughly the same margin with which Mitt Romney won Georgia, which was never in play in the 2012 presidential cycle.

It's good that these two states were polled from reputable pollsters, for they are both states within the so-called "Blue Wall", states that become hotly contested battlegrounds in close presdential elections. In a way, both of these states are pretty good canaries in the coal mine.

All of the toplines, survey group and some internals for all of the Presidential D vs. R matchup data is HERE to be found.


At this LINK is data concerning Gubernatorial/ Senatorial races. Thus far, races have been polled in Kentucky, Louisana, Maryland, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. The Louisana polling was right on the mark, as proven last Saturday.

So, that wraps up a one-week special polling round up.












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