18 October 2015

2016 polling round-up, 16-31.10.2015: Senatorial / Gubernatorial


2015 Kentucky Gubernatorial:

Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R) - internal poll for the Bevin (R) campaign, released 16.10.2015:
500 LV, MoE = unknown (not listed), for this size, is usually +/-4.5 to +/5.0

Conway 44 / Bevin 41 / Curtis 11, margin = Conway +3

It should be noted that there are two other questions on the poll that could indicate a so-called push-poll. You will see the questions at the link. The question is whether or not the order of the data presented is also the order of the questions. If they came BEFORE the matchup question, then it is very likely a push-poll. If they came AFTER the matchups, then it really doesn't matter much. This is the highest showing for Curtis that I have seen to-date. Third party candidates tend to peak some a couple of weeks before the election and then there numbers are usually less on election night. See: 2013 VA Gubernatorial.

Drew Curtis, the Independent 3rd party candidate, is running with his wife, Heather Curtis, for Governor and Lt. Governor as "citizen candidates". He is the owner of Fark.com and truly lists no political affiliation at all.

Both Bevin and Conway have lost previous elections: Conway lost the 2010 senatorial against Republican Rand Paul by a landslide margin. Bevin primaried Mitch McConnell in the 2014 Republican senatorial primaries and lost to him by a landslide. Now, both are vying for the Governor's mansion. The Kentucky GOP has stopped funding Bevin's campaign.

Western Kentucky University "Big Red Poll", released 26.10.2015:
700 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Conway 45 / Bevin 40 / Curtis 7, margin = Conway +5

This internal explains why Conway is really demonstrably ahead:


Conway is winning in the 50-64 vote and winning big in the 65+ vote, usually a Republican demographic. Conway is getting 12% of the Republican vote, while Bevin is only getting 5% of the Democratic vote, and Conway is crushing Bevin in the female vote by +17.  These are statistics that President Obama never enjoyed in Presidential polling of this state.

SUSA, released 28.10.2015:
798 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Conway 45 / Bevin 40 / Curtis 6, margin = Conway +5

Here are the internals:

Vox Populi (R), released 29.10.2015:
618 LV, MoE = +/-3.9

Conway 44 / Bevin 44 / Curtis 6, margin = TIE

2016 Kentucky Senatorial:

Vox Populi (R), released 29.10.2015:
618 LV, MoE = +/-3.9

Paul 47 / Edelen 38, margin = Paul +9

2016 Louisiana Gubernatorial primary:

Market Research Insight (MRI), released 17.10.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Edwards 29 / Vitter 21 / Angelle 17 / Dardenne 14, margin = Edwards +8

Market Research Insight (MRI), released 20.10.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Edwards 36 / Vitter 19 / Angelle 17 / Dardenne 14, margin = Edwards +17

Marble Port / Hayride, released 23.10.2015:
1,464 LV, MoE = +/-3.0

Edwards 41 / Vitter 29 / Dardenne 14 / Angelle 13, margin = Edwards +12

2016 Louisiana Gubernatorial RUNOFF election:

Anzalone/Liszt/Grove (D), released 29.10.2015:
700 LV, MoE = +/-3.7

Edwards 52 / Vitter 40,  margin = Edwards +12


2015 Mississippi Gubernatorial:

Mason/Dixon, released 26.10.2015:
625 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Bryant (Inc) 66 / Gray 28 / O'Hare 1, margin = Bryant +38




2016 Maryland Senatorial - D-nomination:

WAPO/University of Maryland, first released 16.10.2015:
1,006 Adults, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, "leaned Democrats", survey size and MoE not listed

Cummings 34 / Van Hollen 21 / Edwards 19, margin = Cummings +13

without Cummings:

Edwards 36 / Van Hollen 30, margin = Edwards +6



2016 New Hampshire Senatorial:

PPP (D), released 21.10.2015:
800 LV, MoE = +/-3.3

Hassan 44 / Ayotte (Inc) 43, margin = Hassan +1

2016 Washington State Senatorial:

Elway Poll, released 21.10.2015:
500 RV, MoE = +/-4.5

Murray (Inc) 44 / Vance 23, margin = Murray +21

2016 North Carolina Gubernatorial: 

PPP (D), released 29.10.2015:
893 LV, MoE = +/-3.3

Cooper 44 / McCrory (Inc) 43, margin = Cooper +1
McCrory 46 / Spaulding 31, margin = McCrory +15



2016 Wisconsin Senatorial:

St. Norbert / WPR / WPT, released 21.10.2015:
603 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Feingold 51 / Johnson (Inc) 40, margin = Feingold +11

No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.