18 October 2015

2016 polling round-up, 16-31.10.2015: Presidential D vs. R matchups

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING



CNN/ORC, released 19.10.2015:
956 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 46 / Carson 47, margin = Carson +1
Clinton 50 / Trump 45, margin = Clinton +5

Sanders 46 / Carson 48, margin = Carson +2
Sanders 53 / Trump 44, margin = Clinton +9

NBC/WSJ, released 19.10.2015:
400 LV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 46 / Rubio 45, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 47 / Carson 45, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 49 / Cruz 41, margin = Clinton +8


Sanders 44 / Carson 44, margin = Sanders +1
Sanders 45 / Rubio 41, margin = Sanders +4
Sanders 50 / Trump 38, margin = Sanders +12


Morning Consult, released 20.10.2015:
2,017 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 43 / Carson 41, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 44 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 46 / Bush 37, margin = Clinton +9
Clinton 45 / Fiorina 34, margin = Clinton +11
Clinton 47 / Rubio 35, margin = Clinton +12
Clinton 48 / Paul 35, margin = Clinton +13

An interesting poll internal that does not match-up with the demographics of the last presidential election:





Rasmussen Reports, released 20.10.2015;
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Clinton 36 / Trump 38, margin = Trump +2
Clinton 40 / Fiorina 34, margin = Clinton +6

Morning Consult, released 26.10.2015:
1,689 RV, MoE = +/-2.0,

Clinton 41 / Carson 42, margin = Carson +1
Clinton 41 / Bush 41, margin = TIE
Clinton 43 / Trump 43, margin = TIE
Clinton 43 / Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 44 / Paul 38, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 44 / Fiorina 37, margin = Clinton +7


Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 27.10.2015:
2,606 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

(not archived at the national poll site, so here is a complete screensave)


and the demographics of this poll, which now line-up with the stats from 2012:


St. Leo University, released 29.10.2015:
1,005 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 45.8 / Carson 41.5, margin = Clinton +4.3
Clinton 45.8 / Rubio 39.1, margin = Clinton +6.7
Clinton 47.0 / Trump 37.9, margin = Clinton +9.1
Clinton 44.7 / Bush 34.2, margin = Clinton +10.5
Clinton 47.7 / Fiorina 36.4, margin = Clinton +11.0


Clinton 43.1 / Carson 27.9 / Trump 20.2, margin = Clinton +15.4 (over Carson)
Clinton 42.7 / Trump 24.2 / Bush 22.8 , margin = Clinton +18.5 (over Trump)
Clinton 43.7 / Rubio 24.6 / Trump 22.9, margin = Clinton +19.1 (over Rubio)
Clinton 42.7 / Trump 23.8 / Fiorina 22.6, margin = Clinton +19.9  (over Trump)
Clinton 44.9 / Trump 24.1 Cruz 18.6, margin = Clinton +20.8  (over Trump)



D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING


New Hampshire:


PPP (D), released 21.10.2015:
800 LV, MoE = +/-3.3

Clinton 44 / Kasich 44, margin = TIE
Clinton 45 / Christie 44, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 45 / Bush 41, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 46 / Fiorina 42, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 47 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 48 / Rubio 42, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 48 / Carson 42, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 50 / Cruz 37, margin = Clinton +13
Clinton 51 / Cruz 35, margin = Clinton +16

Sanders 45 / Rubio 41, margin = Sanders +4
Sanders 47 / Carson 39, margin = Sanders +8
Sanders 49 / Trump 40, margin = Sanders +9

Biden 47 / Rubio 40, margin = Biden +7*
Biden 48 / Carson 39, margin = Biden +9*
Biden 51 / Trump 40, margin = Biden +11*

This poll was released on the day that Vice-President Biden announced that he would not run for President in 2016.

North Carolina:

PPP (D), released 27.10.2015:
893 LV, MoE = +/-3.3
values in parentheses = number from the previous PPP poll.

Clinton 43 (41) / Carson 49 (51), margin = Carson +6 (+10)
Clinton 42 (40) / Rubio 48 (50), margin = Rubio +6 (+10)
Clinton 42 (42) / Trump 48 (47), margin = Trump +6 (+5)
Clinton 44 (41) / Huckabee 48 (48), margin = Huckabee +4 (+7)
Clinton 43 (41) / Fiorina 45 (48), margin = Fiorina +2 (+7)
Clinton 45 (43) / Cruz 46 (46), margin = Cruz +1 (+3)
Clinton 44 (40) / Kasich 42 (44), margin = Clinton +2  (Kasich +4)
Clinton 46 (41) Bush 43 (46), margin = Clinton +3 (Bush +5)
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Sanders 41 / Cruz 45, margin = Cruz +4
Sanders 40 / Bush 46, margin = Bush +6
Sanders 41 / Trump 48, margin = Trump +7
Sanders 37 / Carson 48, margin = Carson +11
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Clinton 42 / Trump 48 / Webb 8, margin = Trump +2

Wisconsin:

St. Norbert / WPR / WPT, released 21.10.2015:
603 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 49 / Carson 45, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 49 / Bush 39, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 50 / Trump 39, margin = Clinton +11


Sanders 48 / Carson 42, margin = Sanders +6
Sanders 52 / Bush 38, margin = Sanders +12
Sanders 55 / Trump 37, margin = Sanders +18

Biden 50 / Carson 42, margin = Biden +8
Biden 54 / Bush 36, margin = Biden +18
Biden 56 / Trump 37, margin = Biden +19


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