18 October 2015

2016 polling round-up, 16-31.10.2015: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING



NBC/SurveyMonkey, released 16.10.2015:
4,898 Adults, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,881 RRV, MoE = +/-3.2
Values in parentheses = the results of the previous NBC/SurveyMonkey poll (same link).

Trump 28 (29)
Carson 23 (14)
Rubio 9 (7)
Cruz 6 (7)
Fiorina 6 (11)
Bush 5 (8)
Kasich 3 (2)
Paul 2 (3)
all others 1 or less (Walker was at 3 in the previous poll)

Margin = Trump +5 (+15)

According to NBC/SurveyMonkey, Carson has gained a lot of ground and Fiorina is receding in terms of numbers. Bush is in 6th place.

IPSOS/Reuters, dated 14.10.2015, released 16.10.2015:
1,348 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them 492 RRV, MoE =+/-5.0




Margin =  Trump +13 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +14 (RRV only), Trump +7 (IRV, R-leaning only)

And in a three man race:




Margin =  Trump +7 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +5 (RRV only), Trump +4 (IRV, R-leaning only)

NBC/WSJ, released 19.10.2015:
400 LV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 25
Carson 22
Rubio 13
Cruz  9
Bush 8
Fiorina 7
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
all others 2 or less 

Margin = Trump +3

CNN / ORC, released 20.10.2015:
465 RRV + IRV, R-leaning, MoE = +/-4.5

Trump 27
Carson 22
Bush 8
Rubio 8
Huckabee 5
Paul 5
Christie 4
Cruz  4
Fiorina 4
Kasich 3
all others 2 or less 

Margin = Trump +5

Monmouth University, released 20.10.2015:
438 RRV, MoE = +/-5.3

Trump 28
Carson 18
Cruz 10
Fiorina 6
Rubio 6
Bush 5
Paul 4
Christie 3
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +10


Morning Consult, released 20.10.2015:
2,017 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 770 RRV, MoE = unknown, likely +/-3.5

Trump 40
Carson 14
Bush 6
Rubio 5
Cruz 5
Christie 4
Fiorina 3
Kasich 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +26

ABC/WAPO, released 20.10.2015:
1,001 Adults, MoE = +/-3.5
of them 423 "leaned Republicans", MoE = +/-5.5

Trump 32
Carson 22
Rubio 10
Bush 7
Cruz 6
Fiorina 5
Huckabee 3
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +10

IPSOS/Reuters, released 22.10.2015:
2,214 Adults, MoE = +/-2,4,
of them, 806 RRV, MoE = +/-3.9



Margin =  Trump +15 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +13 (RRV only), Trump +12 (IRV, R-leaning only)

And in a three-man race:


Margin =  Trump +12 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +7 (RRV only), Trump +18 (IRV, R-leaning only)

Morning Consult, released 26.10.2015:
1,689 RV, MoE = +/-2.0,
of them, 714 RRV, MoE not listed

Trump 35
Carson 20
Bush 8
Rubio 6
Huckabee 2
Cruz 3
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Jindal 2
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +15

CBS/ NYT, released 27.10.2015:
1,289 Adults, of them, 1,136 RV,
of them 575 RRV,

Carson 26
Trump 22
Rubio 8
Bush 7
Fiorina 7
Cruz 4
Huckabee 4
Paul 4
Kasich 4
Graham 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Carson +4

Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 27.10.2015:
2,606 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Trump 36
Carson 22
Rubio 11
Bush 8
Cruz 6
Fiorina 6
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
all others 2 or less 

Margin = Trump +14

Exact graphic:



The Economist / YouGov, released 29.10.2015:
2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0


Trump 32
Carson 18
Rubio 11
Bush 8
Cruz 8
Kasich 4
Fiorina 3
Christie  2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +14

IPSOS/Reuters, released 29.10.2015:
1,678 Adults, MoE = +/-2,7
of them, 584 RRV, MoE = +/-4.6



Margin =  Trump +8 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +2 (RRV only), Trump +15 (IRV, R-leaning only)

And in a three-man race:




Margin =  Trump +1 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +6 (RRV only), Trump +1 (IRV, R-leaning only)


of them, 225 RRV, MoE = +/-6.0

Trump 22.7
Carson 22.2
Rubio 11.1
Bush 8.4
Fiorina 5.8
Cruz 4.0
all others 3 or less 

Margin = Trump +0.5 (statistical tie)


IBD/TIPP, released 30.10.2015:
402 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 28
Carson 23
Rubio 11
Bush 6
Cruz 6
Fiorina 3
Jindal 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +5

Interesting side-data from the poll:




GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING


Arizona:

MBQF Consulting, released 30.10.2015:
1,057 RLV, MoE = +/-3.0


Carson 25.5
Trump 24.8
Rubio 15.2
Cruz 14.8
Bush 6.8
Fiorina 3.5
Kasich 3.1
Christie 2.6
Huckabee 1.4
Paul 0.8

Margin = Carson +0.7



Florida:



of them, 225 RRV, MoE = +/-6.0

Trump 25.8
Rubio 21.5
Bush 15.3
Carson 14.7

Margin = Trump +4.3

Iowa:

Quinnipiac, released 21.10.2015:
574 RLV, MoE = +/-4.1

Carson 28
Trump 20
Rubio 13
Cruz 10
Paul 6
Bush 5
Fiorina 5
Jindal 3
Kasich 3
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Carson +8


Selzer / Des Moines Register / Bloomberg, released 23.10.2015;
401 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Carson 28
Trump 19
Cruz 10
Rubio 9
Paul 6
Bush 5
Fiorina 4
Huckabee 3
Kasich 2
Jindal 2
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Carson +9


CBS/YouGov, released 25.10.2015:
1,342 RV, MoE = +/-4.8,
of them 528 RRV, MoE = not listed

Carson 27
Trump 27
Cruz 12
Rubio 9
Bush 6
Paul 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 2
Jindal 2
Kasich 2
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = TIE


Monmouth University, released 26.10.2015:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Carson 32
Trump 18
Cruz 10
Rubio 10
Bush 8
Fiorina 5
Paul 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Jindal 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Carson +14

An interesting internal:

and this internal as well:

75% of the GOP electorate in Iowa, according to this poll, is over 50 years old.

Loras College, released 26.10.2015:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.1,
of them, 500 RLV, MoE = 4.4

Carson 30.6
Trump 18.6
Rubio 10.0
Bush 6.8
Cruz 6.2
Jindal 4.6
Fiorina 2.4
all others less than 2

Margin = Carson +12

Also,from this poll, a very interesting internal:




Massachusetts:

Emerson College Poll, released 20.10.2015:
629 RV, MoE = +/-3.9
of them, 271 RLV

Trump 47.8
Carson 13.9
Rubio 11.8
Bush 7.1
Fiorina 6.5
Cruz 5.1
Kasich 2.8
Christie 2.3
all others less than 1

Margin = Trump +33.9

New Hampshire:

PPP (D), released 20.10.2015:
417 RLV, MoE = +/-4.8

Trump 28
Carson 17
Bush 10
Rubio 8
Fiorina 7
Kasich 7
Christie 5
Cruz 4
Paul 4
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +7

2-man matchups:

Trump 49 / Bush 41, Trump +8
Carson 48 / Trump 39. Carson +9
Fiorina 47 / Trump 44, Fiorina +3
Rubio 49 / Trump 42. Rubio +7


Bloomberg / Saint Anselm / Purple Strategies, released 21.10.2015:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 24
Carson 17
Bush 10
Rubio 8
Fiorina 7
Kasich 7
Christie 5
Cruz 4
Paul 4
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +7

2 important data-points:


-and-


CBS/YouGov, released 25.10.2015:
1,148 RV, MoE = +/-5.6,
of them 496 RRV, MoE = not listed

Trump 38
Carson 12
Bush 8
Fiorina 7
Rubio 5
Cruz 5
Kasich 5
Paul 4
Christie 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +26

North Carolina:

PPP (D), released 27.10.2015:
893 LV, MoE = +/-3.3
of them, 425 RLV, MoE = +/-4.8

Trump 31
Carson 23
Rubio 11
Bush 6
Cruz 6
Fiorina 6
Kasich 5
Christie 3
Paul 2
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +8

Pennsylvania:

Franklin & Marshall, released 29.10.2015:
614 RV, MoE = +/-3.9
of them, 231 RRV

Trump 23
Carson 22
Rubio 13
Kasich 6
Cruz 4
Bush 3
Fiorina 3
Christie 3
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +1


South Carolina:

CBS / YouGov, released 25.10.2015:
1,462 RV, MoE = +/-4.8,
of them, 427 DLV, MoE = not listed

Trump 38
Carson 12
Bush 8
Fiorina 7
Rubio 5
Cruz 5
Kasich 5
Paul 4
Christie 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +26


Clemson University, released 27.10.2015:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 23
Carson 19
Rubio 9
Cruz 8
Bush 7
Fiorina 6
Graham 3
Kasich 2
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +4


Texas:

Dixie Strategies/KTVT CBS 11, released 27.10.2015:
2,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 1,051 RLV

Carson 23
Trump 22
Cruz 14
Bush 13
Rubio 7
Fiorina 5
Huckabee 3
Christie 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Carson +1 (statistical tie)

Wisconsin:

St. Norbert / WPR / WPT, released 21.10.2015:
603 RV, MoE = +/-4.0
of them, RRV, MoE = +/-6.4

Carson 20
Rubio 18
Trump 18
Cruz 10
Fiorina 8
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
Bush 3
all others 2 or less 

Margin = Carson +2 (statistical 3-way tie)

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