18 October 2015

2016 polling round-up, 16-31.10.2015: DEM Nomination

DEM NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


NBC/SurveyMonkey, released 16.10.2015:
4,898 Adults, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,857 DRV, MoE = +/-3.2
Values in parentheses = the results of the previous NBC/SurveyMonkey poll (same link).

Clinton 45 (41)
Sanders 31 (29)
Biden 10 (15)
O'Malley 1 (1)
Webb 1 (1)
Chafee 0 (0)

Margin = Clinton +14 (+12)


IPSOS/Reuters, dated 14.10.2015, released 16.10.2015:
1,348 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them 530 DRV, MoE =+/-4.9


Margin = Clinton +17 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +26 (DRV only), Clinton +4 (IRV, D-leaning only)

And in a three-way race:




Margin = Clinton +19 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +28 (DRV only), Clinton +1 (IRV, D-leaning only)

CNN/ORC, released 19.10.2015:
956 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 45
Sanders 29
Biden 18
Webb 1

Lessig, Chafee - 0

Margin = Clinton +16

Monmouth University, released 19.10.2015:
340 DRV, MoE = +/-5.3

Clinton 48
Sanders 21
Biden 17
Webb 1
O'Malley 1
Lessig, Chafee - 0

Margin = Clinton +27

Without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 57
Sanders 24
Webb 1
O'Malley 1
Lessig 1
Chafee 1

Margin = Clinton +33

NBC/WSJ, released 19.10.2015:
400 LV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 49
Sanders 29
Biden 15
Webb 2
O'Malley 1
Lessig, Chafee - 0

Margin = Clinton +20

Without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 58
Sanders 33
Webb 2
O'Malley 1

Margin = Clinton +25

ABC/ WAPO, released 20.10.2015:
1,001 Adults, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 352 DRV, MoE = +/-5.5

Clinton 54
Sanders 23
Biden 16
Webb 2
O'Malley 1

Margin = Clinton +31


Morning Consult, released 20.10.2015:
2,017 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 895 DRV, MoE = unknown, likely +/-3.0

Clinton 56
Sanders 24
Webb 1
O'Malley 1
Chafee 1

Margin = Clinton +32


IPSOS/Reuters, released 22.10.2015:
2,214 Adults, MoE = +/-2,4,
of them, 806 RRV, MoE = +/-3.9


Margin = Clinton +10 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +16 (DRV only), Sanders +7 (IRV, D-leaning only)

Three-man race;




Margin = Clinton +10 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +16 (DRV only), Sanders +6 (IRV, D-leaning only)

Morning Consult, released 26.10.2015:
1,689 RV, MoE = +/-2.0,
of them, 688 DRV, MoE not listed

Clinton 53
Sanders 26
O'Malley 5

Margin = Clinton +27

Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 27.10.2015:
2,606 RV, MoE = +/-2.0



Margin = Clinton +32.6


The Economist / YouGov, released 29.10.2015:
2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 61
Sanders 29
O'Malley 2
Lessig 1

Margin = Clinton +32


IPSOS/Reuters, released 29.10.2015:
1,678 Adults, MoE = +/-2,7
of them, 676 DRV, MoE = +/-4.3




Margin = Clinton +15 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +20 (DRV only), Clinton +2 (IRV, D-leaning only)
of them, 259 DRV, MoE = +/-6.0

Clinton 54.8
(Biden 15.8)
Sanders 12.0

Margin = Clinton +42.8 (over Sanders)

NBC / SurveyMonkey, released 30.10.2015:
8,706 Adults, MoE = +/-1.5
of them, 1,226 DRV, MoE = +/-3.7

Clinton 50
Sanders 30
O'Malley 1
Lessig 1

Margin = Clinton +20

IBD/TIPP, released 30.10.2015:
356 DRV, MoE = +/-5.3

Clinton 48
Sanders 33
O'Malley 2

Margin = Clinton +15

Interesting side-data from the poll:



DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING


Florida:

University of N. Florida (UNF), released 21.10.2015;
632 DLV, MoE = +/-3.9

Clinton 54.6
Sanders 15.9
Biden 11.2
all others 0


Margin = Clinton +38.7


of them, 259 DRV, MoE = +/-6.0

Clinton 50.9
(Biden 15.2)
Sanders 13.0

Margin = Clinton +37.9


Iowa:

Selzer / Des Moines Register / Bloomberg, released 22.10.2015:
402 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 42
Sanders 37
Biden 12
O'Malley 2
 Webb 1
Chafee 0
Lessig 0

Margin = Clinton +5

without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 48
Sanders 41
O'Malley 2
Webb 1
Chafee 1
Lessig 0

Margin = Clinton +7

Quinnipiac, released 23.10.2015:
504 DLV, MoE = +/-4,0

Clinton 51
Sanders 40
O'Malley 4
all others 0

Margin = Clinton +11

CBS/YouGov, released 25.10.2015:
1,342 RV, MoE = +/-4.8,
of them 551 DLV, MoE = not listed

Clinton 46
Sanders 43
O'Malley 3
Chafee 1

Margin = Clinton +3

Loras College, released 27.10.2015:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.1,
of them, 500 RLV, MoE = 4.4

Clinton 61.6
Sanders 23.6
O'Malley 3.2
Webb 0.8

Margin = Clinton +38

This Loras internal shows that support for Clinton spans all major rubriks:



Monmouth University, released 27.10.2015:
400 LV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 65
Sanders 24
O'Malley 5
Lessig 1

Margin = Clinton +41

This internal is interesting, for it shows a huge postive shift for Clinton among Democrats:





Massachusetts:

Emerson College Poll, released 20.10.2015:
629 RV, MoE = +/-3.9
of them, 265 DLV

Clinton 59.1
Sanders 25.3
Webb 4.7
O'Malley 3.3
Chafee 3.2
all others 0


Margin = Clinton +23.8




New Hampshire:

Suffolk University / Boston Globe, released 16.10.2015:
500 LV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 36.8
Sanders 35.4
Biden 11.2
Webb 2.6
O'Malley 1.4
Lessig, Chafee - less than 1

Margin = Clinton +1.4

Interesting poll internals:



Franklin Pierce / Boston Herald, released 18.10.2015:

Sanders 38
Clinton 30
Biden 19
Webb 1
Lessig 1
O'Malley 1
Chafee 1

Margin = Sanders +8


Without Biden in the mix:

Sanders 48
Clinton 38
Webb 2
O'Malley 2


Margin = Sanders +10

PPP (D), released 20.10.2015:
393 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 41
Sanders 33
Biden 11
O'Malley 4
Webb 2
Chafee 2

Margin = Clinton +8

MassINC/WBUR/NPR, released 20.10.2015:
401 LV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 38
Sanders 34
Biden 9
Webb 2
O'Malley 1

Margin = Clinton +4


Bloomberg / Saint Anselm / Purple Strategies, released 21.10.2015:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Sanders 41
Clinton 36
Biden 10
Webb 1
Lessig 1
O'Malley, Chafee 0

Margin = Sanders +5

This poll was released one day after Jim Webb exited the Democratic race and on the that that Vice-Pres. Biden announced that he is not running for President.

2 important data-points:


-and-


CBS/YouGov, released 25.10.2015:
1,148 RV, MoE = +/-5.6,
of them 499 DRV, MoE = not listed

Sanders 54
Clinton 39
O'Malley 3

Margin = Sanders +15


North Carolina:

PPP (D), released 27.10.2015:
893 LV, MoE = +/-3.3
of them, 421 DLV, MoE = +/-4.8

Clinton 61
Sanders 24
O'Malley 5
Lessig 2

Margin = Clinton +37

Pennsylvania:

Franklin & Marshall, released 29.10.2015:
614 RV, MoE = +/-3.9
of them, 303 DRV

Clinton 52
Sanders 18
O'Malley 0
Someone else 12

Margin = Clinton +34


South Carolina:

CBS / YouGov, released 25.10.2015:
1,462 RV, MoE = +/-4.8,
of them, 427 DLV, MoE = not listed

Clinton 68
Sanders 25
O'Malley 1
Webb 1

Margin = Clinton +43

Clemson University, released 27.10.2015:
600 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 43
Sanders 6
O'Malley 1
Webb 1
Undecided 50

Margin = Clinton +37

Texas:

Dixie Strategies/KTVT CBS 11, released 27.10.2015:
2,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 1,008 DLV

Clinton 59
Sanders 10
O'Malley 3

Margin = Clinton +49

Wisconsin:

St. Norbert / WPR / WPT, released 21.10.2015:
603 RV, MoE = +/-4.0
of them, DRV, MoE = +/-6.4


Clinton 35
Sanders 33
Biden 21
O'Malley 1

Margin = Clinton +2


without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 47
Sanders 42
O'Malley 1
Chafee 1

Margin = Clinton +5

No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.