02 October 2015

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.10.2015: Senatorial / Gubernatorial

California Senatorial Primary:

The Field Poll, released 09.10.2015:
694 LV, .MoE = +/-4.3

Harris 30 / Sanchez 17 / Chavez 9 / Del Succaro 5, margin = Harris +13

Connecticut Senatorial:

Quinnipiac, released 14.10.2015:
1,735 RV, MoE = +/-2.4

Blumenthal (Inc) 61 / Kudlow 27, margin = Blumenthal +34
Blumenthal (Inc) 61 / Wolf 26, margin = Blumenthal +35

Florida Senatorial:

Quinnipiac, released 08.10.2015:
1,173 RV, MoE = +/-2.9

Murphy 37 / Lopez-Cantera 29, margin = Murphy +8

Kentucky Gubernatorial:

Mason-Dixon polling, released 08.10.2015:
625 LV, MoE = +/-4.5

Conway 43 / Bevin 41 / Curtis 5, margin = Conway +2


Louisiana Gubernatorial:

Triumph Campaigns (R), released 03.10.2015:
1,047 RV, MoE = +/-2.9

Edwards 35 Vitter 28 / Dardenne 15 / Angelle 10,  margin = Edwards +7



The Democrat is also leading on the Lt. Gov. polling and the internals also gauge trends by race and by independent voters. Worth a look.

JMC Analytics and Polling (R), released 07.10.2015:
500 LV, MoE = +/-4.4

Edwards 28 Vitter 19 / Angelle 8 / Dardenne 7 / other 5 / undecided 53,  margin = Edwards +9

This is a very interesting set of internals from the poll:



KPLC/Raycom Media, released 14.10.2015:
602 RV, MoE = +/-4
among RVs:
Edwards 24 Vitter 21 / Dardenne 8 / Angelle 7 / undecided 37,  margin = Edwards +3

among LVs:
Edwards 32 Vitter 24 / Dardenne 10 / Angelle 10 / undecided 24,  margin = Edwards +8

Runoff scenario, among RV's:

Edwards 48 Vitter 32,  margin = Edwards +16

Runoff scenario, among LV's:Edwards 52 Vitter 33,  margin = Edwards +19

Some interesting commentary in the article about the Raycom poll about the effects of turnout on the race.
New Hampshire Senatorial:

UNH/WMUR, released 06.10.2015:
519 LV, MoE = +/-4.3

Ayotte (Inc) 45 / Hassan 43, margin = Ayotte +2

ARG, released 07.10.2015:
530 RV, MoE = +/-4.2

Ayotte (Inc) 50 / Hassan 41, margin = Ayotte +9

Gravis (R), released 09.10.2015:
1,035 RV, MoE = +/-3.1

Ayotte (Inc) 52 / Hassan 42, margin = Ayotte +10


New Hampshire Gubernatorial:


UNH/WMUR, released 06.10.2015:
519 LV, MoE = +/-4.3

Hassan 51 / Sununu 39, margin = Hassan +12*
Hassan 50 / Bradley 34, margin = Hassan +14*


*This data is somewhat moot as Hassan announced on 06.10.2015 that she is running for the Senate and therefore will not be a candidate for the Gubernatorial.


North Carolina Gubernatorial:

Civitas (R), released 09.10.2015:
600 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

McCrory (Inc) 43 / Cooper 42, margin = McCrory +1


Ohio Senatorial:

Harstad (D- Senate Majority PAC), released 06.10.2015:
813 LV, MoE =+/-3.4

Strickland 46Portman (Inc) 43margin = Strickland +3

Quinnipiac, released 08.10.2015:
1,180 RV, MoE = +/-2.9

Strickland 46 / Portman (Inc) 43margin = Strickland +3



Pennsylvania Senatorial:

Quinnipiac, released 08.10.2015:
1,049 RV, MoE = +/-3.4

Toomey (Inc) 49 / Sestak 34, margin = Toomey +15



PPP (D), released 15.10.2015:
1012 RV, MoE = +/-3.1
Toomey (Inc) 41 Sestak 38, margin = Toomey +3
Toomey (Inc) 43 / McGinty 36, margin = Toomey +7





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