02 October 2015

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.10.2015: Presidential D vs. R matchups

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING

Gravis (R) / OAN, released 03.10.2015:
2,665 RV, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 1,021 DRV, MoE = +/-3.1








PPP (D), released 06.10.2015:
1,338 EV, MoE = +/-2.7
values in parentheses = the previous PPP (D) poll.



Clinton 44 (44) / Carson 48 (44)Carson +4 (TIE)
Clinton 42 (46) / Bush 43 (42), Bush +1
(Clinton +4)
Clinton 44 (46) / Trump 44 (44), TIE (Clinton +2)
Clinton 43 (47) / Rubio 43 (43), TIE (Clinton +4)
Clinton 44 )47) / Fiorina 43 (45)Clinton +1 (+2)
Clinton 42 (44) / Kasich 39 (39)Clinton +3 (+5)
Clinton 46 (47) / Cruz 42 (42)Clinton +4 (+5)
Clinton 46 / Huckabee 39Clinton +7


Biden 42 / Carson 45Carson +3
Biden 45 / Rubio 40Biden +5
Biden 46 / Fiorina 40Biden +6
Biden 48 (47) / Trump 40 (41)Biden +8 (+6)

Sanders 35 (36) / Carson 46 (42)Carson +11 (+6)
Sanders 38 / Fiorina 44Fiorina +6
Sanders 38 / Rubio 42Rubio +4
Sanders 44 (42) / Trump 44 (43)TIE (Trump +1)




Morning Consult, released 06.10.2015:
1,983 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
Parentheses = the previous Morning Consult poll.


Clinton 38  / Carson 44 , margin = Carson +6 
Clinton 40 (45) / Bush 42 (39), margin = Bush +2 (Clinton +6)
Clinton 41 (45) / Trump 43 (41), margin = Trump +2 (Clinton+4)
Clinton 40  / Fiorina 40 , margin = TIE
Clinton 43 (46) / Rubio 39 (38), margin = Clinton +3 (+8)
Clinton 42 (46) / Paul 37 (37), margin = Clinton +5 (+9)




Morning Consult, released 13.10.2015:
2,002 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
Parentheses = the previous Morning Consult poll (listed above this one)

Clinton 41 (38)  / Carson 43 (44) , margin = Carson +2 (+6) 
Clinton 41 (40) / Bush 41 (42), margin = TIE (Bush +2)
Clinton 43 (41) / Trump 41 (43), margin = (Clinton +2) Trump +2 
Clinton 41 (43) / Rubio 39 (39), margin = Clinton +2 (+3)
Clinton 41 (40)  / Fiorina (36) (40) , margin = Clinton +5 (TIE)
Clinton 43 (42) / Paul 37 (37), margin = Clinton +6 (+5)

FOX NEWS, released 13.10.2015:
1,004 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 39  / Carson 50 , margin = Carson +11 
Clinton 40  / Trump 45 , margin = Trump +5 
Clinton 40  / Bush 44 , margin = Bush +4 
Clinton 39  / Fiorina 42 , margin = Fiorina +3 

Biden 44 / Rubio 42, margin = Biden +1
Biden 46 / Carson 42, margin = Biden +4
Biden 46 / Fiorina 42, margin = Biden +4
Biden 46 / Bush 41, margin = Biden +5
Biden 50 / Trump 39, margin = Biden +11

Biden/Warren 48 vs. Trump/Fiorina 42, margin = Biden/Warren +6

Biden/Warren 45 vs. Bush/Rubio 42, margin = Biden/Warren +3

Note, from this poll:




D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING


Connecticut:

Quinnipiac, released 13.10.2015:
1,735 RV, MoE = +/-2.4

Clinton 44 / Carson 42, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 45 / Fiorina 40, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 47 / Trump 40, margin = Clinton +7

Biden 51 / Carson 39, margin = Biden +12
Biden 53 / Fiorina 36, margin = Biden +17
Biden 55 / Trump 37, margin = Biden +18

Sanders 44 / Carson 41, margin = Sanders +3
Sanders 44 / Fiorina 39, margin = Sanders +5
Sanders 49 / Trump 40, margin = Sanders +9

The internals of the Quinnipiac poll do not match the demographics or the VR stats for this state:




The Qpiac internals show a self-identification of only 23% Democrats, a +6 over Republicans.

Here are the latest VR stats from Connecticut:



That translates to: D 36.4%, R 20.1% (D +16.5), I 43.5%. The Ds are underrepresented, the Rs are overrepresented, and the spread is off by 10 full points. That is just hogwash.

In terms of  the racial demographics of Connecticut:



Wow, the racial demographics also do not line up. Whites are overrepresented by 10% in this poll.

Usually, Qpiac does better than this. This is sloppy work this time, surely to the detriment of the D numbers overall.

Florida: 


Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI), released 01.10.2015:

Survey group size unknown, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 37 / Bush 48, margin = Bush +11
Clinton 42 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 35 / Bush 32Trump 21, margin = Clinton +3



Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016:
1,173 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
of them 461 RRV, MoE = +/-4.6 / 441 DRV, MoE = +/-4.8
values in parentheses = the results of the previous Quinnipiac poll.

Clinton 43 (38) Bush 44 (49), margin = Bush +1 (+11)
Clinton 44 / Rubio 45, margin = Rubio +1
Clinton 44 / Fiorina 42, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 45 / Carson 43, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 46 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +5

Biden 45 / Carson 42, margin = Biden +3
Biden 46 / Rubio 43, margin = Biden +3
Biden 46 / Bush 42, margin = Biden +4
Biden 49 / Fiorina 38, margin = Biden +11
Biden 52 / Trump 38, margin = Biden +12

Sanders 40 / Carson 46, margin = Carson +6
Sanders 41 / Rubio 46, margin = Rubio +5
Sanders 41 / Bush 45, margin = Bush +4
Sanders 41 / Fiorina 42, margin = Fiorina +1
Sanders 46 / Trump 41, margin = Sanders +5

Iowa:

NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 05.10.2015:
1,061 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 38 / Fiorina 52, margin = Fiorina +14
Clinton 40 / Bush 50, margin = Bush +10
Clinton 41 / Trump 48, margin = Trump +7

Sanders 42 / Fiorina 45, margin = Fiorina +3
Sanders 44 / Bush 46, margin = Bush +2
Sanders 48 / Trump 43, margin = Sanders +5

Louisiana:

Clarus / WWL-TV, released 01.10.2015:
800 LV, MoE = +/-3.46

Clinton 38 / Bush 56, margin = Bush +18
Clinton 39 / Trump 47, margin = Trump +8
Clinton 45 / Jindal 42, margin = Clinton +3


New Hampshire:

NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 05.10.2015:
1,044 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 42 / Fiorina 50, margin = Fiorina +8
Clinton 42 / Bush 49, margin = Bush +7
Clinton 48 / Trump 45, margin = Clinton +2

Sanders 46 / Bush 46, margin =  TIE
Sanders 47 / Fiorina 45, margin = Sanders +2
Sanders 52 / Trump 42, margin = Sanders +10


North Carolina:


Civitas (R), released 09.10.2015:
600 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 40 / Carson 50, margin = Carson +10
Clinton 42 / Rubio 47, margin = Rubio +5
Clinton 41 / Bush 45, margin = Bush +4
Clinton 41 / Fiorina 45, margin = Fiorina +3
Clinton 44 / Cruz 42, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 47 / Trump 43, margin = Clinton +4



Ohio:

Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016:
1,173 RV, MoE = +/-2.9

Clinton 40 / Carson 49, margin = Carson +9
Clinton 41 / Rubio 45, margin = Rubio +4
Clinton 41 / Bush 43, margin = Bush +2
Clinton 41 / Fiorina 43, margin = Fiorina +2
Clinton 46 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +5

Biden 42 / Carson 46, margin = Carson +4
Biden 44 / Fiorina 42, margin = Biden +2
Biden 46 / Rubio 41, margin = Biden +5
Biden 46 / Bush 37, margin = Biden +9
Biden 49 / Trump 38, margin = Biden +11

Sanders 36 / Carson 48, margin = Carson +12
Sanders 39 / Fiorina 43, margin = Fiorina +4
Sanders 40 / Rubio 43, margin = Rubio +3
Sanders 40 / Bush 42, margin = Bush +2
Sanders 44 / Trump 41, margin = Sanders +3


Pennsylvania:

Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016:
1,173 RV, MoE = +/-2.9

Clinton 40 / Carson 49, margin = Carson +9
Clinton 42 / Bush 46, margin = Bush +5
Clinton 41 / Fiorina 45, margin = Fiorina +4
Clinton 42 / Rubio 45, margin = Rubio +3
Clinton 44 / Trump 42, margin = Clinton +2

Biden 42 / Carson 47, margin = Carson +5
Biden 45 / Fiorina 43, margin = Biden +2
Biden 45 / Rubio 43, margin = Biden +2
Biden 45 / Bush 42, margin = Biden +3
Biden 50 / Trump 40, margin = Biden +10

Sanders 37 / Carson 47, margin = Carson +10
Sanders 39 / Rubio 45, margin = Rubio +6
Sanders 40 / Fiorina 44, margin = Fiorina +4
Sanders 42 / Bush 44, margin = Bush +2
Sanders 46 / Trump 41, margin = Sanders +5

PPP (D), released 15.10.2015:
1,012 RV, MoE = +/-3.1

Clinton 43 / Carson 47, margin = Carson +4
Clinton 41 / Christie 45, margin = Christie +4
Clinton 42 / Rubio 45, margin = Rubio +3
Clinton 43 / Trump 45, margin = Trump +2
Clinton 42 / Fiorina 43, margin = Fiorina +1
Clinton 41 / Kasich 39, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 45 / Bush 40, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 46 / Cruz 40, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 47 / Santorum 39, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 47 / Huckabee 38, margin = Clinton +9

Biden 45 / Trump 43, margin = Biden +2
Biden 46 / Carson 44, margin = Biden +2
Biden 45 / Rubio 41, margin = Biden +4
Biden 46 / Fiorina 40, margin = Biden +6


Sanders 36 / Carson 44, margin =  Carson +8
Sanders 42 / Trump 44, margin =  Trump +4
Sanders 38 / Fiorina 40, margin =  Fiorina +2
Sanders 40 / Rubio 41, margin =  Rubio +1


Virginia:

CNU (Christopher Newport University), released 12.10.2015:
1,067 RV, MoE = +/-3.2

Clinton 43 / Carson 49, margin = Carson +6
Clinton 42 / Christie 47, margin = Christie +5
Clinton 43 / Fiorina 47, margin = Fiorina +4
Clinton 43 / Bush 46, margin = Bush +3
Clinton 45 / Rubio 45, margin = TIE
Clinton 47 / Trump 40, margin = Clinton +7
Clinton 49 / Cruz 41, margin = Clinton +8

xxx

Sanders 39 / Carson 49, margin = Carson +10
Sanders 39 / Fiorina 44, margin = Fiorina +5
Sanders 41 / Bush 46, margin = Bush +5
Sanders 41 / Christie 44, margin = Christie +3
Sanders 43 / Rubio 42, margin = Sanders +1
Sanders 47 / Cruz 37, margin = Sanders +10
Sanders 49 / Trump 37, margin = Sanders +12


Biden 48 / Carson 44, margin = Biden +4
Biden 47 / Bush 42, margin = Biden +5
Biden 48 / Fiorina 42, margin = Biden +6
Biden 48 / Christie 41, margin = Biden +7
Biden 50 / Rubio 40, margin = Biden +10
Biden 53 / Cruz 36, margin = Biden +17
Biden 54 / Trump 37, margin = Biden +17

Also, some interesting and very accurate poll internals:








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