02 October 2015

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.10.2015: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


IPSOS/Reuters, released 01.10.2015:
1,304 RV, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 481 RRV, MoE = +/-5.1

 Margin: Trump +18 (among RRV and IRV, R leaning), Trump +20 (among RRV only)


Three-way race:




Margin: Trump +12 (among RRV and IRV, R leaning), Trump +11 (among RRV only)

Pew Research, released 02.10.2015:
1,502 Adults, MoE = +/-2.9
of them, 1,136 RV, MoE = +/-3.3
of them, 566 RRV +IRV, R-leaning, MoE = +/-4.7


-also seen this way-





Margin: Trump +9

The Pew poll does not do a demographic breakdown of the primary numbers by race, because there are not enough minorites in the GOP survey group to be able to create a reliable statistic. That in and of itself is very, very telling.

IBD/TIPP, released 03.10.2015:
900 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 377 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Carson 24
Trump 17
Rubio 11
Fiorina 9
Bush 8
Cruz 6
Kasich 4
Ryan 3
Huckabee 2
Christie 2
all others 1 or less

Margin = Carson +7

Gravis (R) / OAN, released 03.10.2015:
2,665 RV, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 898 RRV, MoE = +/-3.3





Margin: Trump +17.5

PPP (D), released 06.10.2015:
1,338 EV, MoE = +/-2.7, among them 627 RRVr, MoE = +/-3.9

Trump 27
Carson 17
Rubio 13
Bush 10
Cruz 7
Fiorina 6
Huckabee 4
Kasich 4
alle andere 2 oder weniger

Vorsprung: Trump +10

also:



Trump 56
Bush 36

Vorsprung: Trump +20

Carson 52
Trump 41

Vorsprung: Carson +11
Rubio 50
Trump 43
Vorsprung: Rubio +7

Fiorina 47
Trump 45
Vorsprung: Fiorina +2


and an interesting demographic from the poll:



Morning Consult, released 06.10.2015:
1,983 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 807 RRV, MoE = +/-3.5

Trump 31
Carson 13
Rubio 10
Bush 7
Fiorina 6
Cruz 5
Christie 4
Kasich 4
Paul 3

all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +18

IPSOS/Reuters, released 08.10.2015:
1,630 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
Among them, 602 RRV, MoE = +/-4.6



 Margin: Trump +18 (among RRV and IRV, R leaning), Trump +14 (among RRV only)


Three-man race:

Margin: Trump +8 (among RRV and IRV, R leaning), Trump +17 (among RRV only)

Farleigh-Dickinson University Poll, released 08.10.2015:
824 RV, MoE = +/-4.1
of them, 305 RRV, MoE = +/-5.6

Trump 26
Carson 22
Rubio 8
Bush 7
Fiorina 7
Huckabee 6
Cruz 5
Paul 4
Christie 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +4

CBS / NYT, released 11.10.2015:
1,251 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0, of them, 1,031 RV = more than +/-3.0
of them 419 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 27
Carson 21
Cruz 9
Rubio 8
Bush 6
Fiorina 6
Paul 4
Christie 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2

all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +6


Morning Consult, released 13.10.2015:
2,002 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 749 RRV, MoE =3.58

Trump 34
Carson 20

Bush 9
Cruz 5
Rubio 5
Fiorina 5

Huckabee 4
Paul 3

all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +14

FOX NEWS, released 13.10.2015:
1,004 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 381 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 24
Carson 23

Cruz 10
Rubio 9
Bush 8
Huckabee 5
Fiorina 5
Paul 3all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +1

The Economist / YouGov, released 14.10.2015:
2000 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 434 RRV, MoE = unknown, likely +/-5.0

Trump 28
Carson 18

Rubio 11
Fiorina 9
Cruz 8
Bush 7
Christie 3
Huckabee 5
Kasich 3
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +10

One-on-one matchups:

Trump 59 / Bush 41, Trump +19
Rubio 69 / Bush 31, Rubio +38

Carson 53 / Trump 47, Carson +6
Rubio 53 / Trump 47, Rubio +6

From the YouGov front-page article on the poll:





xxx

GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

California:

The Field Poll, released 08.10.2015:
214 RLV, MoE = +/-7.0!




Margin: Trump +2

Connecticut:

Quinnipiac, released 13.10.2015:
1,735 RV, MoE = +/-2.4
of them, 464 RRV, MoE = +/-4.6

Trump 34
Carson 14
Fiorina 11
Rubio 7
Bush 6
Cruz 6
Kasich 4
Christie 4
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +20

Florida:


Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI), released 01.10.2015:
Survey group size unknown, MoE = +/-4.0


Trump 25
Rubio 14
Bush 13
Fiorina 11
Carson 9
Cruz 5
all others 3 or less

Margin: Trump +11


Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016:
1,173 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
of them 461 RRV, MoE = +/-4.6 / 411 DRV, MoE = +/-4.8

Trump 28
Carson 16
Rubio 14
Bush 12
Fiorina 7
Cruz 6

all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +12


Iowa:

Gravis (R) / OAN, released 02.10.2015:
1,302 RV, MoE = +/-2.7
of them, 454 RRV (in this case RCP), MoE = +/-4.6


Margin: Trump +4.7


NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 04.10.2015:



Margin: Trump +5

Basswood (R-Club for Growth), released 06.10.2015:
500 RLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Carson 21
(undecided 18)
Trump 16
Rubio 11
Bush 10
Fiorina 10
Cruz 5
Huckabee 3
Kasich 2

all others 1 or less

Margin: Carson +5




Louisiana:

Clarus / WWL-TV, released 01.10.2015:
800 LV, MoE = +/-3.46

Carson 23
Trump 19
Bush 10
Rubio 9
Fiorina 7
Cruz 5
Huckabee 4
Jindal 3
Kasich 3
Christie 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Carson +4

Nevada:

CNN/ORC, released 14.10.2015:
1,011 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 285 RLCV, MoE = +/-6.0





Margin: Carson +16

New Hampshire:


NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 04.10.2015:




Margin: Trump +5

Gravis (R), released 09.10.2015:
1,035 RV, MoE = +/-3.1
among them, 662 RLV, MoE = unknown

Trump 32
Carson 13
Kasich 10
Cruz 11
Bush 8
Rubio 8
Cruz 5
Christie 3
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +19

New Jersey:

Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, released 15.10.2015:
935 Adults, MoE = +/-3.2, of them 785 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 266 RRV and IRV, R-leaning, MoE = unknown, likely +/-6.0

Trump 32
Carson 13
Rubio 13
Cruz 6
Bush 5
Fiorina 5
Christie 5
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +19

Also, this poll internal concerning Christie:




Ohio:

Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016:
1,173 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
of them 433 RRV, MoE = +/-4.6 / 396 DRV, MoE = +/-4.8

Trump 23
Carson 18
Kasich 13
Cruz 11
Fiorina 10
Rubio 7
Bush 4
Paul 3
all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +5

Pennsylvania:

Mercyhurst University, released 06.10.2015:
483 RRV, MoE = +/-4.5
Note: the poll was conducted over 11 days, from 21.09-01.10. That is an extremely long and usually somewhat unreliable polling-window.

Carson 18
Trump 18
(undecided 17)
Bush 9
Fiorina 8
Rubio 4
Cruz 4
Christie 4
Huckabee 3
Santorum 3
Kasich 3
Paul 3
other 2

Margin: TIE (Carson/Trump)

Two very interesting internals from the Mercyhurst poll:

-and-


and the demographics of this Republican survey group from Pennsylvania:



The demographics from Pennsylvania are definitely different in some ways than the demographics from South Carolina (see: below)



Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016:
1,173 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
of them 427 RRV, MoE = +/-4.7 / 442 DRV, MoE = +/-4.7

Trump 23
Carson 17
Rubio 12
Fiorina 8
Cruz 6
Christie 5
Bush 4
Huckabee 4
Kasich 3
all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +6

PPP (D), released 13.10.2015:
479 RLV, MoE = +/-4.5

Trump 24
Carson 23
Cruz 9
Fiorina 9
Bush 7
Christie 7
Rubio 6
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +1

Individual matchups:

Trump 60 / Bush 31, Trump +29
Trump 47 /Fiorina 43, Trump +4
Carson 52 / Trump 38, Carson +14
Rubio 45 / Trump 44, Rubio +1

Also, this piece of data from Pennsylvania:



Pennsylvania is Rick Santorum's home state, to remind....



South Carolina:

Gravis (R) / OAN, released 01.10.2015:
1,290 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 762 RRV, MoE = +/-3.6





Margin: Trump +12.7

Also, some useful demographics from the South Carolina poll:




-and-





CNN/ORC, released 14.10.2015:
1,009 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 521 RLV, MoE = +/-4.5



Margin: Trump +18

Virginia:


CNU (Christopher Newport University), released 12.10.2015:
1,067 RV, MoE = +/-3.2
among them, 412 RRV, MoE = +/-5.1

Trump 23
Carson 17
Rubio 14
Fiorina 13
Bush 9
Cruz 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 3

all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +6



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