02 October 2015

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.10.2015: DEM Nomination

DEM NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING



IPSOS/Reuters, released 01.10.2015:
1,304 RV, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 511 DRV, MoE = +/-4.9

Margin: Clinton +10 (DRV + IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +19 (DRV only)


Three-way race:



Margin: Clinton +10 (DRV + IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +20 (DRV only)

USA TODAY / SUFFOLK, released 01.10.2015:
430 DRV

Clinton 41.2
Sanders 23.3
Biden 19.5
Chafee 0.7
Webb 0.5
O'Malley 0.0

Margin: Clinton +17.9


Pew Research, released 02.10.2015:
1,502 Adults, MoE = +/-2.9
of them, 1,136 RV, MoE = +/-3.3
of them, 473 DRV +IRV, D-leaning, MoE = +/-5.2

-or-




Margin: Clinton +21


900 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 344 DRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 42
Biden 22
Sanders 18

Margin: Clinton +20



Gravis (R) / OAN, released 03.10.2015:
2,665 RV, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 1,021 DRV, MoE = +/-3.1




Margin: Clinton +19


PPP (D), released 06.10.2015:

551 DRV, MoE = +/-4.2

Clinton 42
Sanders 24
Biden 20
Webb 2
Chafee 1
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +18

Without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 54
Sanders 34

Margin: Clinton +20

Without Sanders in the mix:

Clinton 51
Biden 38

Margin: Clinton +13

Also:
Vs. Gore: 67/22, Clinton +45
Vs.  Kerry: 69/17, Clinton +52
Vs.  Warren: 58/28, Clinton +30




Morning Consult, released 06.10.2015:
1,983 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 827 DRV, MoE = +/-3.5

Clinton 48
Sanders 27
Chafee 2
O'Malley 1
Webb 1

Margin: Clinton +21



IPSOS/Reuters, released 08.10.2015:
1,630 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
Among them, 640 DRV, MoE = +/-4.5


Margin: Clinton +9 (DRV + IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +17 (DRV only)





Margin: Clinton +8 (DRV + IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +13 (DRV only)


Farleigh-Dickinson University Poll, released 08.10.2015:
824 RV, MoE = +/-4.1
of them, 339 DRV, MoE = +/-5.3

Clinton 45
Sanders 23
Biden 17
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +22

CBS /  NYT, released 11.10.2015:
1,251 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0, of them, 1,031 RV, MoE = higher than +/-3,0,
of them 343 DRV, MoE = +/-6.0

Clinton 46
Sanders 27
Biden 16
O’Malley 2
Webb 0
Chafee 0


Margin: Clinton +19

Morning Consult, released 13.10.2015:
2,002 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 826 DRV, MoE =3.4

Clinton 54
Sanders 22
O’Malley 1
Webb 1
Chafee 1


Margin: Clinton +32

FOX NEWS, released 13.10.2015:
1,004 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 353 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 45
Sanders 25
Biden 19
O’Malley 1
Webb 0
Chafee 0


Margin: Clinton +20

The Economist / YouGov, released 14.10.2015:
2000 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 633 DRV, MoE = unknown, likely +/-4.5

Clinton 48
Sanders 23
Biden 20
O’Malley 2
Lessig 1
Chafee 1

Webb 0

Margin: Clinton +25


DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

California:

Field Poll, released 07.10.2015:
1,002 RV, of them 391 DRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 40
Sanders 31
Biden 15
other 2

Margin: Clinton +9


Without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 47
Sanders 35
O'Malley 1
Webb 1

Margin: Clinton +12

Connecticut:

Quinnipiac, released 13.10.2015:
1,735 RV, MoE = +/-2.4
of them, 610 DRV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 37
Sanders 25
Biden 18
all others 0

Margin: Clinton +12


Without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 47
Sanders 29
Webb 1
all others 0

Margin: Clinton +18



Florida:

Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016:
1,173 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
of them 461 RRV, MoE = +/-4.6 / 411 DRV, MoE = +/-4.8

Clinton 43
Sanders 19
Biden 19

Margin: Clinton +24

Without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 53
Sanders 23
Webb 1
others 2

Margin: Clinton +30

Iowa:

Gravis (R) / OAN, released 02.10.2015:
1,302 RV, MoE = +/-2.7
of them, 328 DRV (in this case DCP), MoE = +/-5.4



Margin: Clinton +8.9

NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 04.10.2015:


Margin: Clinton +5 (with Biden in the mix)Clinton +11 (without Biden)



Louisiana:

Clarus / WWL-TV, released 01.10.2015:
800 LV, MoE = +/-3.46

Clinton 57
Biden 22
Sanders 7
O'Malley 2
Webb 1

Margin: Clinton +35

Maryland:

Groucher College, released 06.10.2015:*
880 Adults, of them 739 RV, of them 300 DLV, MoE = +/-5.7

Clinton 43
Biden 23
Sanders 17
O'Malley 2
Webb 2
Chafee 0

Margin: Clinton +20

I am researching this right now, but don't remember ever before seeing or recording a poll from Groucher College.

Also, an interesting internal from the poll:

WAPO / University of Maryland, released 12.10.2015:
490 DRV +IRV (D-leabing), MoE = +/-5.0



Margin: Clinton +17

Questions 1-37 of the WAPO Maryland poll were embargoed for future release.

Nevada:

CNN/ORC, released 12.10.2015:
253 DLCV, MoE = +/-6.0

Clinton 50
Sanders 34
Biden 12
All others 0

Margin: Clinton +16

Without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 58
Sanders 36
O'Malley 3
all others 0

Margin: Clinton +22


New Hampshire:

NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 04.10.2015:


Margin: Sanders +14 (with Biden in the mix), Sanders +9 (without Biden)

Gravis (R), released 09.10.2015:
1,035 RV, MoE = +/-3.1
among them, 373 DLV, MoE = unknown

Sanders 33
Clinton 30
Biden 10
O'Malley 2
Chafee 1
Webb 1

Margin: Sanders +3

New Jersey:

Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, released 15.10.2015:
935 Adults, MoE = +/-3.2, of them 785 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 358 DRV and IRV, D-leaning, MoE = unknown, likely +/-5.0

Clinton 49
Sanders 19
Biden 10
all others 0

Margin: Clinton +30


Ohio:

Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016:
1,173 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
of them 433 RRV, MoE = +/-4.6 / 396 DRV, MoE = +/-4.8

Clinton 40
Sanders 21
Biden 19
Lessig 1

Margin: Clinton +19

Without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 52
Sanders 26
Webb 1
Lessig 1

Margin: Clinton +26


Pennsylvania:

Quinnipiac Swing-State poll, released 07.10.2016:
1,173 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
of them 427 RRV, MoE = +/-4.7 / 442 DRV, MoE = +/-4.7

Clinton 36
Biden 25
Sander 19
Webb 1
O'Malley 1
Lessig 1

Margin: Clinton +11

Without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 51
Sanders 25
Webb 1
O'Malley 1
Lessig 1

Margin: Clinton +26


PPP (D), released 13.10.2015:
416 DLV, MoE = +/-4.8

Clinton 40
Sanders 22
Biden 20
Chafee 3
O'Malley 2
Webb 1
Lessig 1

Margin: Clinton +18


South Carolina:

Gravis (R) / OAN, released 01.10.2015:
1,290 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 762 RRV, MoE = +/-3.6



Margin: Clinton +31

Also, some very interesting demographics from the poll:



-and-




CNN/ORC, released 12.10.2015:
301 DLV, MoE = +/-5.5

Clinton 49
Biden 24
Sanders 18
O'Malley 3
All others 0

Margin: Clinton +25

Without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 70
Sanders 20
O'Malley 3
all others 0

Margin: Clinton +50


Virginia:


CNU (Christopher Newport University), released 12.10.2015:
1,067 RV, MoE = +/-3.2
among them, 407 DRV, MoE = +/-5.1

Clinton 40
Biden 23
Sanders 23
Webb 5
O'Malley 2
All others 0

Margin: Clinton +17

xxx

No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.