26 October 2015

Special polling round up: 15-23.10.2015

Instead of the usual two-week window for round-ups that I post in many places, due to the interesting nature of the last 11 days or so, I decided to put out a one week round-up, the main reason being: Hillary Clinton.

On the 13th was the Democratic debate.  In the week that followed, former VA Sen. Webb dropped out of the race, Vice-President Biden announced that he was not running and then Lincoln Chafee also dropped out of the Democratic races, thus quickly clearing the field to just three people and only two real contenders, with Clinton statistically significantly ahead. This means in clear-text that the DEM polling to date that often showed two sets of numbers (DEM field with Biden, DEM field without Biden) will as of now only show one set of numbers and since in almost every case, the absence of Biden from the polling increased Clinton's lead over Sanders or, in the case of New Hampshire, decreased Sander's lead over Clinton, there is not doubt whatsoever that Clinton will profit from V.P. Biden closing the window on a presidential run.

And then there were the 11-hour long Benghazi hearings, televised all over the place, where former Secretary of State Clinton dominated and the Republicans were unable to elicit their sought-for "gotcha" moment.

Put all of these things together and there is no doubt that Clinton currently has the wind at her back - and this should show in polling results starting from the 25th of October or so.

So, let's look at the October week 3 numbers:

GOP nomination - National:

NBC/SurveyMonkey, released 16.10.2015: Trump +5 (was at +15 in the previous poll)
IPSOS/Reuters, dated 14.10.2015, released 16.10.2015: Margin =  Trump +13 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +14 (RRV only), Trump +7 (IRV, R-leaning only)*
NBC/WSJ, released 19.10.2015: Trump +3
CNN / ORC, released 20.10.2015: Trump +5
Monmouth University, released 20.10.2015: Trump +10
Morning Consult, released 20.10.2015: Trump +26
ABC/WAPO, released 20.10.2015: Trump +10
IPSOS/Reuters, released 22.10.2015:  Margin =  Trump +15 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +13 (RRV only), Trump +12 (IRV, R-leaning only)

We see 8 national polls over 7 days and see a positive jump in Trump's numbers as of polls released on 20.10.2015.  One poll is a repeater, so if you take the first IPSOS/Reuters out of the equation and average the 7 polls, then it is: Trump +10.3, a landslide margin over 2nd place Dr. Ben Carson - nationally.

GOP Nomination - State Polling:

Iowa:
Quinnipiac, released 21.10.2015:  Carson +8
Selzer / Des Moines Register / Bloomberg, released 23.10.2015; Carson +9
Average: Carson +8.5

Massachusetts:
Emerson College Poll, released 20.10.2015: Trump +33.9

New Hampshire:
PPP (D), released 20.10.2015: Trump +7
Bloomberg / Saint Anselm / Purple Strategies, released 21.10.2015: Trump +7
Average: Trump +7

Wisconsin:
St. Norbert / WPR / WPT, released 21.10.2015: Carson +2

There was not a deluge of GOP nomination state-polling, but the results from Iowa indeed reflect a change in Dr. Ben Carson's favor and the two margins are very similat to each other. Carson is also slightly ahead in Wisconsin, but the margin is well within the MoE and therefore, it is a statistical tie. In Massachusetts, Donald Trump has a blowout-landslide lead over the field.

What remains to be seen is out the strange Trump tweet about Iowan's brains being drug addled if they are favoring Carson - and how that will play in the next round of polling.

All of the toplines, survey group and some internals for all of the GOP data is HERE to be found.


DEM nomination - National:

NBC/SurveyMonkey, released 16.10.2015: Clinton +14 (with Biden in the mix)
IPSOS/Reuters, dated 14.10.2015, released 16.10.2015:  Margin = Clinton +17 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +26 (DRV only), Clinton +4 (IRV, D-leaning only- all with Biden in the mix)
CNN/ORC, released 19.10.2015: Clinton +16 (with Biden in the mix)
Monmouth University, released 19.10.2015: Clinton +27 (with Biden in the mix), Clinton +33 (without Biden)
NBC/WSJ, released 19.10.2015: Clinton +20 (with Biden in the mix), Clinton +25 (without Biden)
ABC/ WAPO, released 20.10.2015: Clinton +31 (with Biden in the mix)
Morning Consult, released 20.10.2015:  Clinton +32 (WITHOUT Biden in the mix)
IPSOS/Reuters, released 22.10.2015: Margin = Clinton +10 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +16 (DRV only), Sanders +7 (IRV, D-leaning only - all with Biden in the mix)

As with the GOP field, this makes for 8 polls in less than seven days, with one repeater. With both the Monmouth and NBC/ WSJ polls, we can see that Clinton's margin over Sanders rises by 5 points in both polls without Biden in the mix.  Since Biden is definitely not running, for the averages, I am taking the values that can be taken without Biden to average, so the average of 7 polls (excluding the first IPSOS/Reuters) is: Clinton +23.9, a very large landslide margin. And in a number of those polls, Clinton is back over the 50 mark again. As was the case with Donald Trump and the Republican field, Clinton's numbers also dramatically improved as of the 19th of October (it was the 20th for the GOP). There is no statistical doubt that Hillary Clinton is the prohibitive front-runner within the Democratic field.


DEM nomination - State polling:

Florida:
University of N. Florida (UNF), released 21.10.2015; Clinton +38.7 (with Biden in the mix)

Iowa:
Selzer / Des Moines Register / Bloomberg, released 22.10.2015: Clinton +5 (with Biden in the mix), Clinton +7 (without Biden)
Quinnipiac, released 23.10.2015: Clinton +11 (without Biden)
Average: Clinton +9

Massachusetts:
Emerson College Poll, released 20.10.2015: Clinton +23.8 (without Biden), Clinton at almost 60%.

New Hampshire:
Suffolk University / Boston Globe, released 16.10.2015: Clinton +1.4 (with Biden in the mix)
Franklin Pierce / Boston Herald, released 18.10.2015: Sanders +8 (with Biden in the mix), Sanders +10 (without Biden)
PPP (D), released 20.10.2015: Clinton +8 (with Biden in the mix)
MassINC/WBUR/NPR, released 20.10.2015: Clinton +4 (with Biden in the mix)
Bloomberg / Saint Anselm / Purple Strategies, released 21.10.2015: Sanders +5 (with Biden in the mix)
Average: Sanders +0.32

Wisconsin:
St. Norbert / WPR / WPT, released 21.10.2015Clinton +2 (with Biden in the mix), Clinton +5 (without Biden)

The state polling for the DEMS also shows some surprises, namely, that Hillary Clinton is regaining ground in New Hampshire, is cruising in Massachusetts, is now statistically significantly ahead in Iowa, but it is surprisingly close in Wisconsin, a possible new battleground opportunity for Bernie Sanders.

All of the toplines, survey group and some internals for all of the DEM data is HERE to be found.

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING

CNN/ORC, released 19.10.2015:  Clinton and Sanders vs. Carson and Trump (4 matchups). Trump loses both. Carson wins both.

NBC/WSJ, released 19.10.2015: Clinton and Sanders vs. Rubio, Carson and Cruz (6 matchups), all D wins.

Morning Consult, released 20.10.2015: Clinton vs. 6 GOPers. She wins all 6 matchups.

Rasmussen Reports, released 20.10.2015; Clinton vs. Trump and Fiorina. Loses to Trump by 2, wins over Fiorina by 6. The topline numbers are ridiculously low, practically impossible for this stage in the game.


D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING


New Hampshire:
PPP (D), released 21.10.2015: Clinton vs. 9 GOPers, Sanders and Biden, each vs. 3 GOPers (15 matchups total). The three common denominators are: Rubio, Carson and Trump. Clinton ties Kasich, beats the other 8. Sanders and Biden beat all of their opponents. The New Hampshire poll was released on the day that Vice-President Biden announced that he was not running for president.  These numbers reflect a stark improvement for Hillary Clinton over last month. New Hampshire is now a 5-for-6 Democratic state on the presidential level, having gone for the Democratic candidate in every presidential cycle since 1992, excepting 2000,, but it was a hotly contested battleground state in both 2000 and 2004. Some pollsters claimed that it was a battleground in 2012, but Obama won the state easily by +6, three time the margin with which Romney won North Carolina.

Wisconsin:
St. Norbert / WPR / WPT, released 21.10.2015: Clinton, Sanders and Biden against Carson, Bush and Trump. The DEMS win all 9 matchups. Trump does the worst, with Clinton +11, Sanders +18 and Biden +19 over Trump. Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by +14 and in 2012 by +7. Wisconsin is now a 7-for-7 Democratic state on the presidential level, having gone for the Democratic candidate in every presidential cycle since 1988, but it was a hotly contested battleground state in both 2000 and 2004. Some pollsters claimed that it was a battleground in 2012, but Obama won the state easily by +7, roughly the same margin with which Mitt Romney won Georgia, which was never in play in the 2012 presidential cycle.

It's good that these two states were polled from reputable pollsters, for they are both states within the so-called "Blue Wall", states that become hotly contested battlegrounds in close presdential elections. In a way, both of these states are pretty good canaries in the coal mine.

All of the toplines, survey group and some internals for all of the Presidential D vs. R matchup data is HERE to be found.


At this LINK is data concerning Gubernatorial/ Senatorial races. Thus far, races have been polled in Kentucky, Louisana, Maryland, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. The Louisana polling was right on the mark, as proven last Saturday.

So, that wraps up a one-week special polling round up.












23 October 2015

Media Screenshots of the Benghazi hearings with Hillary Clinton

Now and then, I do screenshot captures of media treatment of major events. These screenshots are in random order, with no preference. The goal is to see how different outlets treat such a story differently, though subtle means, i.e. a word slipped into a title, an especially complimentary or especially non-complimentary photo, etc....







































20 October 2015

Results of last night's election in Canada

As indicated here, the Liberals were projected to win, according to polls, by +5.5 to +6.0 on the aggregate.

Here are the preliminary results:









Margin: Liberals +7.6% (circa 2% richer than the polling aggregates predicted)

With 184 seats secured, the Liberals are 14 seats over absolute majority in the House of Commons and they have almost double the number of seats as the Conservatives, who have 99 seats. Combined with the 44 seats that the NPD (farther to the Left than the Liberals, actually) and the 1 seat from the Greens (also to the Left), then the Center, Left and Hard-Left in Canada has at least 229 of 338 seats, or 67.8% of the House of Commons. It is therefore very unlikely that the Conservatives will be able to push through any legislation that they would like, for there are simply not going to be enough of them in the HOC for the next legislative period. I personally am not sure where the Quebec Block stands on the political spectrum.

Justin Trudeau, 43, will be the next Prime Minister of Canada.

With 17,553,591 votes cast, the size of the election in all of  Canada was roughly the size of the US presidential elections on the West Coast  (California, Oregon, Washington State). where combined, 17,991.443 votes were cast in 2012.

19 October 2015

Today is Canada's 42nd General Federal (General) Election and...

...it looks like today is going to be an interesting day.



Three major parties and perhaps three smaller parties are on the ballot for today's parliamentary elections, and likely very many little splitter parties that will go absolutely nowhere. See: below.

The wiki for this is actually pretty darned good:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_2015

Polling is showing that the "Liberals", which were tied with the Conservatives for a long stretch of time, have pulled into a statistically significant lead, one that is outside of the standard MoE:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadeian_federal_election,_2015

To that list also goes the latest IPSOS/Reuters poll, which just came in:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7031

(perhaps by the time people wake up today and read this blog posting, the IPSOS/Reuters will have been added to the wiki link.... perhaps not....)

So, the last polls in reverse chronological order back to the release date of 10/15, show the following margins for the Liberals:

+8, +8.6, +10, +3,9, +1.7, +7, +6.8, +0.4, +6.3, +8, +4, +5, +1.2, +5.9

The average of all those polls listed is: Liberals +5.5
The average of just the 10 most recent is: Liberals +6.1
I didn't take time to pull out the repeaters, but likely, it won't change the average all that much.

In fact, the Liberals have led in the last 22 polls in a row.

One of those pollsters, Angus Reid, a Canadian polling firm (the one with a +4 margin above, which I bolded), also polled the US 2012 presidential election during the Fall campaign and put out some pretty accurate results. I was impressed with this as Angus Reid had no dog in the race, was simply interested in putting out accurate data.**

The current polling is also very, very consistent. In every single one of those 22 polls:

The Liberals are in the lead.
The Conservatives are in 2nd place.
The New Democratic Party is in 3rd place.
Block Quebec and the Greens dance around each other for 4th and 5th place.
There is officially a 6th party called "Strength in Democracy", but apparently, it is barely on the radar screen.

In 2011, there were 14 other mini-splitter parties on the ballots. They went nowhere, but you can see that some of the party names are hilarious:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Canada#Results

Also: This graphic from the WIKI link at the top of the blog posting shows the progression of polling for today's election, from the beginning of August until now:




You can see the sharp upward curve for the Liberals starting on October 5th and which held for 13 days straight.

The number of seats in the Canadian House of Commons has been increased from 308 to 338, so the magic number to rule should be 170. I am not aware of a percent hurdle for a small party to get seats in the House of Commons.

The current population of Canada was estimated at 35.3 million in 2014.
35,300,00 / 338 = 104,438 consituents per seat in the House of Commons.

The Canadian Senate has 105 seats, which are appointed and not directly decided by the popular vote.

All of Canada's 10 provinces plus the Yukon territory use a plurality voting system (no absolute majority of 50.01% is required).
The Northwest Territories and Nunavut use a concensus governing model for elections.

One of the issues here is that of titles. They call themselves the Liberals, but many in Canada say that this party is actually the more Centrist party, whereas the New Democratic Party (NDP) was created out of the most hardcore of the Liberals who were dissatisfied with the direction of Liberalism in their country. I don't live there, so I don't know for sure.

I created this blog posting because it is very interesting and we should not forget: two great nations that have lived peacefully as neighbors for more than 200 years now have both held, (mostly) uninterrupted, free and fair elections the entire time. That is a point that I think we should remember. It's a tribute to flourishing Democracy in both lands.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Angus Reid, 2012 election:

National Angus Reid end-pollObama 51 / Romney 48, margin = Obama +3, so the poll was 1 point off to the Right, but Angus Reid was the only end pollster to nail the topline. Obama won with exactly 51.01%.

Angus Reid also put out end-polling results for Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio. It absolutely nailed the margin in WI and OH, was off slightly to the right in Florida and Pennsylvania and was off 4 points to the Right in Michigan. But it predicted the correct winner in 4 of 5 battleground states. It called a tie in FL, which is automatically a miscall. You can see the results here.

So, I look forward to seeing what happens in Canada today. And I wish the Candians good weather, a huge turnout and a fine election.

In honor of the day and our Canadian friends:




18 October 2015

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.10.2015: fav/unfav, approve/disapprove, other issues

Presidential Approval / Disapproval - NATIONAL


NBC/SurveyMonkey, released 16.10.2015:
4,898 Adults, MoE = +/-2.0
Values in parentheses = the results of the previous NBC/SurveyMonkey poll (same link).

Obama approve 47 (48) / disapprove 51 (52), margin = -4 (-4)


IPSOS/Reuters, dated 14.10.2015, released 16.10.2015:
1,348 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0



Obama approve 45 / disapprove 49, margin = -4



Morning Consult, released 20.10.2015:
2,017 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Obama approve 43 / disapprove 53, margin = -10

IPSOS/Reuters, released 29.10.2015:
1,678 Adults, MoE = +/-2,7



Obama approve 43 / disapprove 50, margin = -7

Presidential Approval / Disapproval - STATE

Texas:

Dixie Strategies/KTVT CBS 11, released 27.10.2015:
2,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0

Obama approve 44 / disapprove 50, margin = -6





Presidential CANDIDATES FAV/UNFAV - NATIONAL


Among US-Latinos:

AP-GFK, released 26.10.2015:
References this poll:
1,027 Adults, MoE = +/-3.7


Trump FAV 11 / UNFAV 72, -61
Rubio FAV 23 / UNFAV ___, ___
Bush FAV 26, UNFAV ____, ___.

(waiting for the raw data)



xxxx


Presidential CANDIDATES FAV/UNFAV - STATE

xxxx





ISSUES:



Direction of the country:


NBC/SurveyMonkey, released 16.10.2015:
4,898 Adults, MoE = +/-2.0
Values in parentheses = the results of the previous NBC/SurveyMonkey poll (same link).

Right direction 29 (30) / wrong direction 67 ( 67), margin = wrong direction +38 (+37)



IPSOS/Reuters, dated 14.10.2015, released 16.10.2015:
1,348 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0




Right "track" 26  / wrong "track" 57, margin = wrong "track" +31


xxx


2016 polling round-up, 16-31.10.2015: Senatorial / Gubernatorial


2015 Kentucky Gubernatorial:

Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R) - internal poll for the Bevin (R) campaign, released 16.10.2015:
500 LV, MoE = unknown (not listed), for this size, is usually +/-4.5 to +/5.0

Conway 44 / Bevin 41 / Curtis 11, margin = Conway +3

It should be noted that there are two other questions on the poll that could indicate a so-called push-poll. You will see the questions at the link. The question is whether or not the order of the data presented is also the order of the questions. If they came BEFORE the matchup question, then it is very likely a push-poll. If they came AFTER the matchups, then it really doesn't matter much. This is the highest showing for Curtis that I have seen to-date. Third party candidates tend to peak some a couple of weeks before the election and then there numbers are usually less on election night. See: 2013 VA Gubernatorial.

Drew Curtis, the Independent 3rd party candidate, is running with his wife, Heather Curtis, for Governor and Lt. Governor as "citizen candidates". He is the owner of Fark.com and truly lists no political affiliation at all.

Both Bevin and Conway have lost previous elections: Conway lost the 2010 senatorial against Republican Rand Paul by a landslide margin. Bevin primaried Mitch McConnell in the 2014 Republican senatorial primaries and lost to him by a landslide. Now, both are vying for the Governor's mansion. The Kentucky GOP has stopped funding Bevin's campaign.

Western Kentucky University "Big Red Poll", released 26.10.2015:
700 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Conway 45 / Bevin 40 / Curtis 7, margin = Conway +5

This internal explains why Conway is really demonstrably ahead:


Conway is winning in the 50-64 vote and winning big in the 65+ vote, usually a Republican demographic. Conway is getting 12% of the Republican vote, while Bevin is only getting 5% of the Democratic vote, and Conway is crushing Bevin in the female vote by +17.  These are statistics that President Obama never enjoyed in Presidential polling of this state.

SUSA, released 28.10.2015:
798 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Conway 45 / Bevin 40 / Curtis 6, margin = Conway +5

Here are the internals:

Vox Populi (R), released 29.10.2015:
618 LV, MoE = +/-3.9

Conway 44 / Bevin 44 / Curtis 6, margin = TIE

2016 Kentucky Senatorial:

Vox Populi (R), released 29.10.2015:
618 LV, MoE = +/-3.9

Paul 47 / Edelen 38, margin = Paul +9

2016 Louisiana Gubernatorial primary:

Market Research Insight (MRI), released 17.10.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Edwards 29 / Vitter 21 / Angelle 17 / Dardenne 14, margin = Edwards +8

Market Research Insight (MRI), released 20.10.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Edwards 36 / Vitter 19 / Angelle 17 / Dardenne 14, margin = Edwards +17

Marble Port / Hayride, released 23.10.2015:
1,464 LV, MoE = +/-3.0

Edwards 41 / Vitter 29 / Dardenne 14 / Angelle 13, margin = Edwards +12

2016 Louisiana Gubernatorial RUNOFF election:

Anzalone/Liszt/Grove (D), released 29.10.2015:
700 LV, MoE = +/-3.7

Edwards 52 / Vitter 40,  margin = Edwards +12


2015 Mississippi Gubernatorial:

Mason/Dixon, released 26.10.2015:
625 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Bryant (Inc) 66 / Gray 28 / O'Hare 1, margin = Bryant +38




2016 Maryland Senatorial - D-nomination:

WAPO/University of Maryland, first released 16.10.2015:
1,006 Adults, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, "leaned Democrats", survey size and MoE not listed

Cummings 34 / Van Hollen 21 / Edwards 19, margin = Cummings +13

without Cummings:

Edwards 36 / Van Hollen 30, margin = Edwards +6



2016 New Hampshire Senatorial:

PPP (D), released 21.10.2015:
800 LV, MoE = +/-3.3

Hassan 44 / Ayotte (Inc) 43, margin = Hassan +1

2016 Washington State Senatorial:

Elway Poll, released 21.10.2015:
500 RV, MoE = +/-4.5

Murray (Inc) 44 / Vance 23, margin = Murray +21

2016 North Carolina Gubernatorial: 

PPP (D), released 29.10.2015:
893 LV, MoE = +/-3.3

Cooper 44 / McCrory (Inc) 43, margin = Cooper +1
McCrory 46 / Spaulding 31, margin = McCrory +15



2016 Wisconsin Senatorial:

St. Norbert / WPR / WPT, released 21.10.2015:
603 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Feingold 51 / Johnson (Inc) 40, margin = Feingold +11

2016 polling round-up, 16-31.10.2015: Presidential D vs. R matchups

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING



CNN/ORC, released 19.10.2015:
956 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 46 / Carson 47, margin = Carson +1
Clinton 50 / Trump 45, margin = Clinton +5

Sanders 46 / Carson 48, margin = Carson +2
Sanders 53 / Trump 44, margin = Clinton +9

NBC/WSJ, released 19.10.2015:
400 LV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 46 / Rubio 45, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 47 / Carson 45, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 49 / Cruz 41, margin = Clinton +8


Sanders 44 / Carson 44, margin = Sanders +1
Sanders 45 / Rubio 41, margin = Sanders +4
Sanders 50 / Trump 38, margin = Sanders +12


Morning Consult, released 20.10.2015:
2,017 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 43 / Carson 41, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 44 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 46 / Bush 37, margin = Clinton +9
Clinton 45 / Fiorina 34, margin = Clinton +11
Clinton 47 / Rubio 35, margin = Clinton +12
Clinton 48 / Paul 35, margin = Clinton +13

An interesting poll internal that does not match-up with the demographics of the last presidential election:





Rasmussen Reports, released 20.10.2015;
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Clinton 36 / Trump 38, margin = Trump +2
Clinton 40 / Fiorina 34, margin = Clinton +6

Morning Consult, released 26.10.2015:
1,689 RV, MoE = +/-2.0,

Clinton 41 / Carson 42, margin = Carson +1
Clinton 41 / Bush 41, margin = TIE
Clinton 43 / Trump 43, margin = TIE
Clinton 43 / Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 44 / Paul 38, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 44 / Fiorina 37, margin = Clinton +7


Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 27.10.2015:
2,606 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

(not archived at the national poll site, so here is a complete screensave)


and the demographics of this poll, which now line-up with the stats from 2012:


St. Leo University, released 29.10.2015:
1,005 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 45.8 / Carson 41.5, margin = Clinton +4.3
Clinton 45.8 / Rubio 39.1, margin = Clinton +6.7
Clinton 47.0 / Trump 37.9, margin = Clinton +9.1
Clinton 44.7 / Bush 34.2, margin = Clinton +10.5
Clinton 47.7 / Fiorina 36.4, margin = Clinton +11.0


Clinton 43.1 / Carson 27.9 / Trump 20.2, margin = Clinton +15.4 (over Carson)
Clinton 42.7 / Trump 24.2 / Bush 22.8 , margin = Clinton +18.5 (over Trump)
Clinton 43.7 / Rubio 24.6 / Trump 22.9, margin = Clinton +19.1 (over Rubio)
Clinton 42.7 / Trump 23.8 / Fiorina 22.6, margin = Clinton +19.9  (over Trump)
Clinton 44.9 / Trump 24.1 Cruz 18.6, margin = Clinton +20.8  (over Trump)



D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING


New Hampshire:


PPP (D), released 21.10.2015:
800 LV, MoE = +/-3.3

Clinton 44 / Kasich 44, margin = TIE
Clinton 45 / Christie 44, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 45 / Bush 41, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 46 / Fiorina 42, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 47 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 48 / Rubio 42, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 48 / Carson 42, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 50 / Cruz 37, margin = Clinton +13
Clinton 51 / Cruz 35, margin = Clinton +16

Sanders 45 / Rubio 41, margin = Sanders +4
Sanders 47 / Carson 39, margin = Sanders +8
Sanders 49 / Trump 40, margin = Sanders +9

Biden 47 / Rubio 40, margin = Biden +7*
Biden 48 / Carson 39, margin = Biden +9*
Biden 51 / Trump 40, margin = Biden +11*

This poll was released on the day that Vice-President Biden announced that he would not run for President in 2016.

North Carolina:

PPP (D), released 27.10.2015:
893 LV, MoE = +/-3.3
values in parentheses = number from the previous PPP poll.

Clinton 43 (41) / Carson 49 (51), margin = Carson +6 (+10)
Clinton 42 (40) / Rubio 48 (50), margin = Rubio +6 (+10)
Clinton 42 (42) / Trump 48 (47), margin = Trump +6 (+5)
Clinton 44 (41) / Huckabee 48 (48), margin = Huckabee +4 (+7)
Clinton 43 (41) / Fiorina 45 (48), margin = Fiorina +2 (+7)
Clinton 45 (43) / Cruz 46 (46), margin = Cruz +1 (+3)
Clinton 44 (40) / Kasich 42 (44), margin = Clinton +2  (Kasich +4)
Clinton 46 (41) Bush 43 (46), margin = Clinton +3 (Bush +5)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Sanders 41 / Cruz 45, margin = Cruz +4
Sanders 40 / Bush 46, margin = Bush +6
Sanders 41 / Trump 48, margin = Trump +7
Sanders 37 / Carson 48, margin = Carson +11
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Clinton 42 / Trump 48 / Webb 8, margin = Trump +2

Wisconsin:

St. Norbert / WPR / WPT, released 21.10.2015:
603 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 49 / Carson 45, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 49 / Bush 39, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 50 / Trump 39, margin = Clinton +11


Sanders 48 / Carson 42, margin = Sanders +6
Sanders 52 / Bush 38, margin = Sanders +12
Sanders 55 / Trump 37, margin = Sanders +18

Biden 50 / Carson 42, margin = Biden +8
Biden 54 / Bush 36, margin = Biden +18
Biden 56 / Trump 37, margin = Biden +19


2016 polling round-up, 16-31.10.2015: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING



NBC/SurveyMonkey, released 16.10.2015:
4,898 Adults, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,881 RRV, MoE = +/-3.2
Values in parentheses = the results of the previous NBC/SurveyMonkey poll (same link).

Trump 28 (29)
Carson 23 (14)
Rubio 9 (7)
Cruz 6 (7)
Fiorina 6 (11)
Bush 5 (8)
Kasich 3 (2)
Paul 2 (3)
all others 1 or less (Walker was at 3 in the previous poll)

Margin = Trump +5 (+15)

According to NBC/SurveyMonkey, Carson has gained a lot of ground and Fiorina is receding in terms of numbers. Bush is in 6th place.

IPSOS/Reuters, dated 14.10.2015, released 16.10.2015:
1,348 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them 492 RRV, MoE =+/-5.0




Margin =  Trump +13 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +14 (RRV only), Trump +7 (IRV, R-leaning only)

And in a three man race:




Margin =  Trump +7 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +5 (RRV only), Trump +4 (IRV, R-leaning only)

NBC/WSJ, released 19.10.2015:
400 LV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 25
Carson 22
Rubio 13
Cruz  9
Bush 8
Fiorina 7
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
all others 2 or less 

Margin = Trump +3

CNN / ORC, released 20.10.2015:
465 RRV + IRV, R-leaning, MoE = +/-4.5

Trump 27
Carson 22
Bush 8
Rubio 8
Huckabee 5
Paul 5
Christie 4
Cruz  4
Fiorina 4
Kasich 3
all others 2 or less 

Margin = Trump +5

Monmouth University, released 20.10.2015:
438 RRV, MoE = +/-5.3

Trump 28
Carson 18
Cruz 10
Fiorina 6
Rubio 6
Bush 5
Paul 4
Christie 3
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +10


Morning Consult, released 20.10.2015:
2,017 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 770 RRV, MoE = unknown, likely +/-3.5

Trump 40
Carson 14
Bush 6
Rubio 5
Cruz 5
Christie 4
Fiorina 3
Kasich 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +26

ABC/WAPO, released 20.10.2015:
1,001 Adults, MoE = +/-3.5
of them 423 "leaned Republicans", MoE = +/-5.5

Trump 32
Carson 22
Rubio 10
Bush 7
Cruz 6
Fiorina 5
Huckabee 3
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +10

IPSOS/Reuters, released 22.10.2015:
2,214 Adults, MoE = +/-2,4,
of them, 806 RRV, MoE = +/-3.9



Margin =  Trump +15 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +13 (RRV only), Trump +12 (IRV, R-leaning only)

And in a three-man race:


Margin =  Trump +12 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +7 (RRV only), Trump +18 (IRV, R-leaning only)

Morning Consult, released 26.10.2015:
1,689 RV, MoE = +/-2.0,
of them, 714 RRV, MoE not listed

Trump 35
Carson 20
Bush 8
Rubio 6
Huckabee 2
Cruz 3
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Jindal 2
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +15

CBS/ NYT, released 27.10.2015:
1,289 Adults, of them, 1,136 RV,
of them 575 RRV,

Carson 26
Trump 22
Rubio 8
Bush 7
Fiorina 7
Cruz 4
Huckabee 4
Paul 4
Kasich 4
Graham 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Carson +4

Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 27.10.2015:
2,606 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Trump 36
Carson 22
Rubio 11
Bush 8
Cruz 6
Fiorina 6
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
all others 2 or less 

Margin = Trump +14

Exact graphic:



The Economist / YouGov, released 29.10.2015:
2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0


Trump 32
Carson 18
Rubio 11
Bush 8
Cruz 8
Kasich 4
Fiorina 3
Christie  2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +14

IPSOS/Reuters, released 29.10.2015:
1,678 Adults, MoE = +/-2,7
of them, 584 RRV, MoE = +/-4.6



Margin =  Trump +8 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +2 (RRV only), Trump +15 (IRV, R-leaning only)

And in a three-man race:




Margin =  Trump +1 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +6 (RRV only), Trump +1 (IRV, R-leaning only)


of them, 225 RRV, MoE = +/-6.0

Trump 22.7
Carson 22.2
Rubio 11.1
Bush 8.4
Fiorina 5.8
Cruz 4.0
all others 3 or less 

Margin = Trump +0.5 (statistical tie)


IBD/TIPP, released 30.10.2015:
402 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 28
Carson 23
Rubio 11
Bush 6
Cruz 6
Fiorina 3
Jindal 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +5

Interesting side-data from the poll:




GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING


Arizona:

MBQF Consulting, released 30.10.2015:
1,057 RLV, MoE = +/-3.0


Carson 25.5
Trump 24.8
Rubio 15.2
Cruz 14.8
Bush 6.8
Fiorina 3.5
Kasich 3.1
Christie 2.6
Huckabee 1.4
Paul 0.8

Margin = Carson +0.7



Florida:



of them, 225 RRV, MoE = +/-6.0

Trump 25.8
Rubio 21.5
Bush 15.3
Carson 14.7

Margin = Trump +4.3

Iowa:

Quinnipiac, released 21.10.2015:
574 RLV, MoE = +/-4.1

Carson 28
Trump 20
Rubio 13
Cruz 10
Paul 6
Bush 5
Fiorina 5
Jindal 3
Kasich 3
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Carson +8


Selzer / Des Moines Register / Bloomberg, released 23.10.2015;
401 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Carson 28
Trump 19
Cruz 10
Rubio 9
Paul 6
Bush 5
Fiorina 4
Huckabee 3
Kasich 2
Jindal 2
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Carson +9


CBS/YouGov, released 25.10.2015:
1,342 RV, MoE = +/-4.8,
of them 528 RRV, MoE = not listed

Carson 27
Trump 27
Cruz 12
Rubio 9
Bush 6
Paul 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 2
Jindal 2
Kasich 2
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = TIE


Monmouth University, released 26.10.2015:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Carson 32
Trump 18
Cruz 10
Rubio 10
Bush 8
Fiorina 5
Paul 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Jindal 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Carson +14

An interesting internal:

and this internal as well:

75% of the GOP electorate in Iowa, according to this poll, is over 50 years old.

Loras College, released 26.10.2015:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.1,
of them, 500 RLV, MoE = 4.4

Carson 30.6
Trump 18.6
Rubio 10.0
Bush 6.8
Cruz 6.2
Jindal 4.6
Fiorina 2.4
all others less than 2

Margin = Carson +12

Also,from this poll, a very interesting internal:




Massachusetts:

Emerson College Poll, released 20.10.2015:
629 RV, MoE = +/-3.9
of them, 271 RLV

Trump 47.8
Carson 13.9
Rubio 11.8
Bush 7.1
Fiorina 6.5
Cruz 5.1
Kasich 2.8
Christie 2.3
all others less than 1

Margin = Trump +33.9

New Hampshire:

PPP (D), released 20.10.2015:
417 RLV, MoE = +/-4.8

Trump 28
Carson 17
Bush 10
Rubio 8
Fiorina 7
Kasich 7
Christie 5
Cruz 4
Paul 4
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +7

2-man matchups:

Trump 49 / Bush 41, Trump +8
Carson 48 / Trump 39. Carson +9
Fiorina 47 / Trump 44, Fiorina +3
Rubio 49 / Trump 42. Rubio +7


Bloomberg / Saint Anselm / Purple Strategies, released 21.10.2015:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 24
Carson 17
Bush 10
Rubio 8
Fiorina 7
Kasich 7
Christie 5
Cruz 4
Paul 4
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +7

2 important data-points:


-and-


CBS/YouGov, released 25.10.2015:
1,148 RV, MoE = +/-5.6,
of them 496 RRV, MoE = not listed

Trump 38
Carson 12
Bush 8
Fiorina 7
Rubio 5
Cruz 5
Kasich 5
Paul 4
Christie 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +26

North Carolina:

PPP (D), released 27.10.2015:
893 LV, MoE = +/-3.3
of them, 425 RLV, MoE = +/-4.8

Trump 31
Carson 23
Rubio 11
Bush 6
Cruz 6
Fiorina 6
Kasich 5
Christie 3
Paul 2
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +8

Pennsylvania:

Franklin & Marshall, released 29.10.2015:
614 RV, MoE = +/-3.9
of them, 231 RRV

Trump 23
Carson 22
Rubio 13
Kasich 6
Cruz 4
Bush 3
Fiorina 3
Christie 3
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +1


South Carolina:

CBS / YouGov, released 25.10.2015:
1,462 RV, MoE = +/-4.8,
of them, 427 DLV, MoE = not listed

Trump 38
Carson 12
Bush 8
Fiorina 7
Rubio 5
Cruz 5
Kasich 5
Paul 4
Christie 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +26


Clemson University, released 27.10.2015:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 23
Carson 19
Rubio 9
Cruz 8
Bush 7
Fiorina 6
Graham 3
Kasich 2
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Trump +4


Texas:

Dixie Strategies/KTVT CBS 11, released 27.10.2015:
2,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 1,051 RLV

Carson 23
Trump 22
Cruz 14
Bush 13
Rubio 7
Fiorina 5
Huckabee 3
Christie 2
all others 1 or less 

Margin = Carson +1 (statistical tie)

Wisconsin:

St. Norbert / WPR / WPT, released 21.10.2015:
603 RV, MoE = +/-4.0
of them, RRV, MoE = +/-6.4

Carson 20
Rubio 18
Trump 18
Cruz 10
Fiorina 8
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
Bush 3
all others 2 or less 

Margin = Carson +2 (statistical 3-way tie)