16 September 2015

2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: Presidential D vs. R matchups

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING


Morning Consult, released 16.09.2015:
2,023 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Value in parentheses = the previous Morning Consult poll.

Clinton 43 (43) / Bush 41 (41), margin = Clinton +2 (+2)
Clinton 44 (42) / Trump 40 (43), margin = Clinton +4 (Trump +1)
Clinton 44 (43) / Rubio 38 (37), margin = Clinton +6 (+5)
Clinton 46 (44) / Paul 37 (38), margin = Clinton +9 (+6)
Clinton 45 (45) / Walker 36 (37), margin = Clinton +9 (+8)



Morning Consult, released 21.09.2015:
4,033 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
Parentheses = the previous Morning Consult poll (listed above these results in this blog)

Clinton 45 (44) / Trump 41 (40), margin = Clinton +4 (+4)
Clinton 45 (43) / Bush 39 (41), margin = Clinton +6 (+2)
Clinton 46 (44) / Rubio 38 (38), margin = Clinton +8 (+6)
Clinton 46 (46) / Paul 37 (37), margin = Clinton +9 (+9)
Clinton 47 (45) / Walker 34 (36), margin = Clinton +13 (+9)


Fox News, released 23.09.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Political identification within the poll = D+1 (it was D+7 in the 2012 election, D+8 in the 2008 election)

This is the first part of the poll, with a Clinton/Trump matchup published. The other matchups come in a later release of the poll.


Parentheses = the previous FOX poll (indicated within the above link)

Before the question matchups began, FOX first asked this question:



And then, with Question 31, the matchups began:

Clinton 46 (47) / Trump 42 (42), margin = Clinton +4 (+5)

Between the Clinton/Trump matchup and the other matchups, FOX news inserted the following question:



This question was asked BEFORE the Clinton / Bush matchup up question and the other matchup questions. By putting such a qualifier question in-between instead of simply asking for respondents' decisions on matchups, FOX has turned this poll somewhat into what is called a "push-poll"

(More data on this poll as it comes in)
Note: 03.10.2015 - as of this date, no new data.


Quinnipiac, released 24.09.2015:
1,475 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
Parentheses, where applicable, refer to the previous Qpiac poll.


Clinton 42  / Carson 49, margin = Carson +7 
Clinton 42 (42)  / Bush 44 (40) , margin = Bush +2 (Clinton +2)
Clinton 43  / Fiorina 44, margin = Fiorina +1 
Clinton 45 (45)  / Trump 43 (41), margin = Clinton +2 (+5)

Biden 45  / Carson 45, margin = TIE 
Biden 46  / Fiorina 43, margin = Biden +3
Biden 46 (45)  / Bush 41 (39), margin = Biden +5 (+6)
Biden 51 (48)  / Trump 40 (40), margin = Biden +11 (+8)

Sanders 39  / Carson 49, margin = Carson +10
Sanders 43  / Fiorina 44, margin = Fiorina +1 
Sanders 44 (43)  / Bush 44 (39), margin = TIE (Sanders +4)
Sanders 47 (44) / Trump 42 (41), margin = Sanders +5 (+3) 




NBC/WSJ, released 28.09.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
Values in parentheses = the results of the last NBC/WSJ matchup, from 06/15, where possible

Clinton 45  / Carson 46, margin = Carson +9
Clinton 44  / Fiorina 45, margin = Fiorina +1 
Clinton 45 (48)  / Bush 44 (40), margin = Clinton +1 (+8)
Clinton 48  / Trump 38 , margin = Clinton +10


Biden 48 (40)  / Bush 40 (48), margin = Biden +8 (Bush +8)
Biden 47  / Carson 41 , margin = Biden +6
Biden 49  / Carson 41 , margin = Biden +8
Biden 56  / Trump 35 , margin = Biden +21


Sanders 52  / Trump 36 , margin = Sanders +16


D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING


Florida:

Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 22.09.2015:*
801 RV, MoE = not listed

Clinton 39.5 / Carson 51.7, margin = Carson +12.2
Clinton 42.2 / Rubio 50.4, margin = Rubio +8.2
Clinton 40.9 / Bush 49.1, margin = Bush +8.2
Clinton 44.5 / Trump 45.9, margin = Trump +1.5
Clinton 45.4 / Walker 45.5, margin = Walker +0.1 (near mathematical tie)
Clinton 47.5 / Huckabee 43.6, margin = Clinton +3.9
Clinton 44.1 / Paul 40.3, margin = Clinton +3.8 

*A number of things about the methodology to this poll should be explored. Doesn't seem to jive at all with the demographic make up of the state at all.

Michigan:

Marketing Research Group - MRG - (R), released 18.09.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 39 / Bush 40, margin = Bush +1
Clinton 39 / Fiorina 40, margin = Fiorina +1
Clinton 43  / Trump 40, margin = Clinton +3 

Mitchell Research / Fox 2, released 29.09.2015:
1,483 LV, MoE = +/-2.5
values in parentheses are from the previous Mitchell poll, end of August

Clinton 42  / Bush 37, margin = Clinton +5 (Bush +1)
Clinton 42 / Trump 42, margin = TIE (Trump +1)
Clinton 40 / Rubio 43, margin = Rubio +3 (+9)





New Hampshire:

CNN / WMUR9, released 28.09.2015:
743 LV, MoE = +/-3.6

Clinton 50  / Trump 42, margin = Clinton +8

Biden 56  / Trump 37 , margin = Biden +19 

Sanders 57  / Trump 37 , margin = Sanders +20

A very enlightening internal from the CNN poll, explains partly why Clinton is still winning over Trump, and by a near-landslide margin:





North Carolina:

Elon University, released 26.09.2015;
1,075 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 40.9 / Carson 52.3, margin = Carson +11.4
Clinton 42.6 / Bush 46.0, margin = Bush +3.4
Clinton 47.3 / Trump 4.0, margin = Clinton +7.3

Internals from all three matchups:













PPP (D), released 29.09.2015:
1,269 RV, MoE = +/-2.8
values in parentheses are from the previous PPP (D) poll of NC.

Clinton 43 (43) / Cruz 46 (45), margin = Cruz +3 (+2)
Clinton 41 (42) / Bush 46 (42), margin = Bush +4 (TIE)
Clinton 40 (41) / Kasich 44 (42), margin = Kasich +4 (+1)
Clinton 42 (42) / Trump 47 (45), margin = Trump +5 (+3)
Clinton 41 (45) / Huckabee 48 (49), margin = Huckabee +7 (+4)
Clinton 41 (41) / Fiorina 48 (42), margin = Fiorina +7 (+1)
Clinton 41 (40) / Carson 51 (47), margin = Carson +10 (+7)
Clinton 40 (41) / Rubio 50 (45), margin = Rubio +10 (+4)

Biden 47 / Bush 42, margin = Biden +5
Biden 45 / Trump 45, margin = TIE
Biden 44  / Fiorina 45 , margin = Fiorina +1
Biden 44  / Carson 47 , margin = Carson +3

Sanders 43 (40) / Trump 46 (43), margin = Trump +3 (+3)
Sanders 39 (40) / Bush 45 (43), margin = Bush +6 (+3)
Sander 37  / Fiorina 46 , margin = Fiorina +9
Sanders 35Carson 48, margin = Carson +13

Texas:

Texas Lyceum Poll, released 30.09.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 801 RV, MoE = +/-3.35

Clinton 27 / Bush 32 , margin = Bush +5
Clinton 31 / Cruz 32 , margin = Cruz +1
Clinton 31 / Walker 29, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 38 / Trump 33, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 37 / Perry 31, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 32 / Rubio 22, margin = Clinton +10



Wisconsin:

Marquette Poll, released 29.09.2015:
803 RV, MoE = +/-4.1
values in parentheses = the previous Marquette poll, end of August.

Clinton 48  / Rubio 40 , margin = Clinton  +8
Clinton 50 (46.6) / Bush 38 (41.5), margin = Clinton  +12 (+5.5)
Clinton 50 (51.1) / Trump 36 (35.4), margin = Clinton  +14 (+15.7)

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