16 September 2015

2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


Morning Consult, released 16.09.2015:
2,023 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 756 RRV, MoE = unknown, likely +/-5.0

Trump 33
Carson 17
Bush 9
Cruz 6
Paul 5
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Rubio 3
Walker 2
Christie 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +16



The Economist/YouGov, released 17.09.2015:
Overall, 2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8

Trump 33
Carson 17
Cruz 8
Bush 7
Rubio 7
Fiorina 6
Walker 5
Paul 4
Kasich 3
all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +16


Ipsos/Reuters, released 17.09.2015:
Overall, 1,570 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 536 RRV, MoE = +/-4.8

All GOP candidates:


Margin: Trump +17 (among RRV and IRV, R leaning), Trump +21 (among RRV only)

Three way race:


Margin: Trump +9 (among RRV and IRV, R leaning), Trump +13 (among RRV only)



Gravis (R) / OAN, released 18.09.2015:
1,337 RRV, MoE = +/-3.0
The link will probably be defunct pretty quickly, OAN uses the same URL for all polling results and until now, I have not seen any archive links. For this reason, two screenshots.


Margin: TIE (Fiorina/Trump)

Also:






Morning Consult, released 18.09.2015:
504 RRV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 36
Carson 12
Fiorina 10
Rubio 9
Cruz 7
Bush 6
Christie 6
Kasich 4
Paul 2
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +24


IPSOS/Reuters, released 20.09.2015:
557 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0




Margin: Trump +24.9

CNN/ORC, released 20.09.2015:
1,006 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
749 RRV + IV, R-leaning, MoE = +/-4.5

Trump 24
Fiorina 15
Carson 14
Rubio 11
Bush 9
Cruz 6
Huckabee 6
Paul 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +9

NBC/Survey Monkey, released 20.09.2015:
5,113 Adults, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 2,070 RRV, MoE = +/-3.8

Trump 29
Carson 14
Fiorina 11
Bush 8
DN/someone else/NA 8
Rubio 7
Cruz 7
Paul 3
Walker 3
Christie 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +15

Zogby Analytics, released 21.09.2015:
405 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 33
Carson 13
Bush 9
Fiorina 7
Cruz 6
Paul 5
Rubio 5
Kasich 5
Christie 3
Walker 2
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +20


Morning Consult, released 21.09.2015:
4,033 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,551 RRV, MoE = +/-3.7?

Trump 32
Carson 12
Bush 11
Fiorina 6
Cruz 5
Rubio 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 4
Walker 3
Paul 3
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +20

Fox News, released 23.09.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them 398 RRV, MoE not listed, likely +/-5.0




Margin: Trump +12

Bloomberg/Selzer, released 24.09.2015:
1,001 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 391 RRV, MoE not listed



Margin: Trump +5

Quinnipiac, released 24.09.2015:
1,475 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
of them, 737 RRV, MoE = +/-3.6

Trump 25
Carson 17
Fiorina 12
Bush 10
Rubio 9
Cruz 7
------------
Christie 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 1
Pataki 1
all others 0

Margin: Trump +8

IPSOS/Reuters, released 26.09.2015:
1,582 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 577 RRV, MoE = +/-4.7


Margin: Trump +14 (All), +12 (GOP RV only), +15 (IRV)



Top 3:

Margin: Trump +6 (All), +2 (GOP RV only), +11 (IRV)


NBC/ WSJ poll, released 27.09.2015:
206 RLV, MoE = +/-6.5





Margin: Trump +1

Suffolk/USA Today, released 30.09.2015:
1,000 RLV, +/-3.0
of them, 380 RLV and ILV, r-leaning

Trump 23.4
Carson 13.3
Fiorina 13.2
Rubio 9.0
Bush 7.9
Cruz 5.5
Kasich 2.4
Paul 2.1
Jindal 1.3

all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +10.1



Morning Consult, released 30.09.2015:
1,543 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 637 RRV

Trump 30
Carson 15
Bush 10
Fiorina 9
Rubio 9
Cruz 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 3
Paul 3

all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +15



GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Arizona:


MBQF Consulting, released 16.09.2015:
643 RLV, MoE = +/-3.9



Margin: Trump +8.6



Florida:

Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 22.09.2015:
801 RV, MoE = not listed
of them, 352 RRV, MoE = not listed






Margin: Trump +12.3 (over Rubio)


Georgia:

Landmark Communications / Rosetta Stone, released 26.09.2015:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 30.8
Carson 17.9
Fiorina 13.2
Rubio 9.4
Cruz 7.9
Bush 7.5
Huckabee 4.4
Kasich 1.9
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +12.9

The demographics of this poll, of the 600 RLV:


87.7% of the GOP electorate in Georgia is over 40, 33.7% of it is over 65 and 96% of it is white in a state that is 30.5% black and only 9.6% is 65 or older. Georgia is one of the states where the composition of the GOP is most out of step with the overall dynamic of the state.

Iowa:

PPP (D), released 22.09.2015:
488 RRV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 24
Carson 17
Fiorina 13
Rubio 8
Bush 6
Huckabee 6
Walker 5
Paul 4
Jindal 4
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +7

Two-way polling:

Trump 51
Bush 37
Margin: Trump +14

Carson 60
Trump 33
Margin: Carson +27

Fiorina 54
Trump 36
Margin: Fiorina +18

Rubio 53
Trump 38
Margin: Rubio +15

Walker 51
Trump 37
Margin: Walker +14



Michigan:
Marketing Research Group (MRG), released 16.09.2015:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0




Margin: Carson +2


New Hampshire:


WBUR Poll, released 16.09.2015:
404 RLV, MoE = +/-3.9
Crosstabs.




Margin: Trump +4



Voter Gravity (touchtone flash-poll), released 18.09.2015:
2,389 RRV, MoE =not listed.






Margin: Fiorina +3

CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 24.09.2015:
344 RRV, MoE = +/-5.3

Trump 26
Fiorina 16
Rubio 9
Carson 8
Bush 7
Kasich 7
Christie 5
Cruz 5
Paul 3
all others 1 or less (Huckabee, Jindal and Santorum 0)

Margin: Trump +10

Interesting internal from the CNN New Hampshire poll:







North Carolina:

Elon University, released 26.09.2015;
1,075 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 517 RLV, MoE = unknown, likely +/-4.5

Trump 21.5
Carson 20.9
Fiorina 9.9
Rubio 7.4
Bush 7.0
Cruz 6.2
Huckabee 4.1
Paul 2.3
Kasich 2.1
Walker 1.6
Christie 1.6
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +0.6 (statistical tie, near-mathematical tie)


PPP (D), released 29.09.2015:
1,269 RV, MoE = +/-2.8
Of them, 578 RRV, MoE = +/-5.1

Trump 26
Carson 21
Fiorina 12
Rubio 10
Cruz 9
Huckabee 6
Bush 5
Kasich 4
Christie 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +5


one-one one matchups:

Carson 54 / Trump 38, Carson +16
Fiorina 49 / Trump 45, Fiorina +4
Rubio 47 / Trump 44, Rubio +3
Trump 56 / Bush 36, Trump +20


Texas:

Texas Lyceum Poll, released 30.09.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 261 RRV, MoE = +/-6.01

Trump 21
Cruz 16
Carson 12
Bush 10
Fiorina 6
Rubio 3
Huckabee 2

All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +5


Utah:

Dan Jones and Associates, released 22.09.2015:
604 Adults, MoE = +/-4.0



Margin: Carson +6



Wisconsin:

Marquette Poll, released 29.09.2015:
803 RV, MoE = +/-4.1
of them, 321 RRV, MoE= +/-6.5

Trump 20
Carson 16
Rubio 14
Fiorina 11
Bush 7
Cruz 5
Paul 5
Huckabee 3
Christie 3
Kasich 3
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +4

No comments:

Post a Comment

Constructive comments and critique are always welcome. Please keep it polite and respectful.