16 September 2015

2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: DEM Nomination

DEM NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING

Morning Consult, released 16.09.2015:
2,023 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 955 DRV, MoE = unknown, likely +/-5.0

Clinton 54
Sanders 24
undecided 12
other 6
O'Malley 2
Webb 2
Chaffee 0

Margin: Clinton +30



The Economist/YouGov, released 17.09.2015:
Overall, 2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8

Clinton 45
Sanders 26
Biden 19
other/NP 7
O'Malley 1
Webb 1
Chaffee 1

Margin: Clinton +19


Ipsos/Reuters, released 17.09.2015:
Overall, 1,570 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 647 DRV, MoE = +/-4.4


Margin: Clinton +17 (DRV + IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +21 (DRV only)





Three way race:
Margin: Clinton +13 (DRV + IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +18 (DRV only)



IPSOS/Reuters, released 20.09.2015:
677 DRV, MoE = +/-4.5


Margin: Clinton +22.2



CNN/ORC, released 21.09.2015: (GOP nomination numbers were released on 20.09.2015)
924 RV, MoE = +/-3.0, of them 392 DRV or IRV, D-leaning, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 42
Sanders 24
Biden 22
O'Malley 1
Webb 0
Chaffee 0

Margin: Clinton +18

without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 57
Sanders 28
Biden 22
O'Malley 2
Webb 0
Chaffee 0

Margin: Clinton +29

NBC / Survey Monkey, released 21.09.2015:
1,774 DRV, MoE = +/-3.2

Clinton 42
Sanders 29
Biden 15
O'Malley 1
Webb 1
Chaffee 0

Margin: Clinton +13


Morning Consult, released 21.09.2015:
4,033 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,761 DRV, MoE = +/-3.7?

Clinton 49
Sanders 28
O'Malley 2
Webb 1
Chaffee 1

Margin: Clinton +21

Bloomberg/Selzer, released 23.09.2015:
1,001 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
Of them, 375 DRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 33
Biden 25
Sanders 24
Webb 2
O'Malley 1
Chaffee 0

Margin: Clinton +8

Fox News, released 23.09.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them 381 DRV, MoE not listed, likely +/-5.0



Margin: Clinton +14


Fox News Poll, released 23.09.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, DLV, MoE unknown.

Clinton 44
Sanders 30
Biden 18
O'Malley 2
Webb 1
Chaffee 0
Lessig 0

Margin: Clinton +14


Zogby Analytics, released 23.09.2015;
515 DLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 44
Sanders 18
Biden 18
O'Malley 4
Webb 3
Chaffee 0
Lessig 0

Margin: Clinton +26

Without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 52
Sanders 24
O'Malley 3
Webb 2
Chaffee 0
Lessig 0

Margin: Clinton +28


Quinnipiac, released 24.09.2015:
1,475 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
of them, 587 DRV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 43
Sanders 25
Biden 18
Webb 0
O'Malley 0
Chaffee 0
Lessig 0

Margin: Clinton +18

Without Biden in the mix:

Clinton 53
Sanders 30
O'Malley 1
Webb 0
Chaffee 0
Lessig 0

Margin: Clinton +23


Also, an interesting internal, which you should compare to the GOP internal from the same poll, over at the GOP thread for this time-frame:



According to Quinnipiac, far fewer Democratic voters say there is one candidate they will definitely not vote for. By the Republicans, 29% say they will not vote for Trump.



IPSOS/Reuters, released 26.09.2015:
1,582 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 618 DRV, MoE = +/-4.5

Margin: Clinton +9 (ALL), +10 (DRV), TIE (IRV)

Three-Way:


Margin: Clinton +7 (ALL), +8 (DRV), +1 (IRV)



NBC/WSJ, released 28.09.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 256 DLV, MoE = +/-6.1




Margin: Clinton +7 (with Biden in the mix), +15 (without Biden in the mix)

Morning Consult, released 30.09.2015:
1,543 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 643 DRV

Clinton 44
Sanders 23
Biden 19
all others - less than 1

Margin: Clinton +21






DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING


Florida:

Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 22.09.2015:
801 RV, MoE = not listed
of them, 298 DRV, MoE = not listed



Margin: Clinton +43.6 (over Biden), +44.3 (over Sanders)


Iowa:


PPP (D), released 22.09.2015:
494 DRV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 43
Sanders 22
Biden 17
O'Malley 3
Webb 3
Chaffee 2
Lessig 0

Margin: Clinton +21



Michigan:

Market Research Group - MRG - (R), released 18.09.2015:
600 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0


Clinton 41
Sanders 22
Biden 22
O'Malley 1
Webb 1
Chaffee 1

Margin: Clinton +19

New Hampshire:


WBUR poll, released 16.09.2015:
404 DLV, MoE = +/-4.5
Crosstabs

.5


Margin: Sanders +4


CNN/WMUR, released 24.09.2015:
314 DRV, MoE = +/-5.5

Sanders 46
Clinton 30
Biden 14
O'Malley 2
Webb 1
Chaffee 0
Lessig 0

Margin: Sanders +16


North Carolina:

Elon University, released 26.09.2015;
1,075 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 427 DLV, MoE = unknown, likely +/-4.5

Clinton 53.4
Sanders 23.0
Undecided 17.1
Webb 1.6
Lessig 0.7
Chafee 0.7
O'Malley 0.2

Margin:Clinton +30.4


PPP (D), released 29.09.2015:
1,269 RV, MoE = +/-2.8
Of them, 605 DRV, MoE = +/-4.0

With Biden in the mix:
Clinton 37
Biden 30
Sanders 17
Webb 3
Chafee 2
O'Malley 1

Margin:Clinton +7

without Biden in the mix:
Clinton 51
Sanders 23

Margin:Clinton +28

Texas:

Texas Lyceum Poll, released 30.09.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 185 DRV, MoE = +/-7.15

Clinton 36
Sanders 24
Biden 15
Webb 0
Chafee 0
O'Malley 0

Margin:Clinton +12


Utah:


Dan Jones and Associates, released 22.09.2015:
604 Adults, MoE = +/-4.0





Margin: Sanders +6 (over Biden), +9 (over Clinton)



Wisconsin:

Marquette Poll, released 29.09.2015:
803 RV, MoE = +/-4.1
of them, 394 DRV, MoE= +/-5.9


Clinton 42
Sanders 30
Biden 17
O'Malley 1
Chafee 0
O'Malley 0

Margin:Clinton +12

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