02 September 2015

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.09.2015: GOP Nomination

GOP nomination - National


PPP (D), released 01.09.2015:
572 RRV, MoE = +/-4.1

Trump 29
Carson 15
Bush 9
Fiorina 8
Rubio 7
Cruz 6
Kasich 6
Huckabee 5
Walker 5
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +14


Gravis (R), released 02.09.2015:
957 RV, MoE = +/-3.4,
of them, 507 RRV





Margin: Trump +15.9





The Economist / YouGOV poll, released 03.09.2015:
2,000 adults, MoE = +/-2.8

Trump 36
Carson 11
Bush 8
Rubio 7
Cruz 6
Walker 6
undecided 5
Huckabee 4
Kasich 4
Paul 4
Fiorina 3
Christie 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +25

IPSOS / Reuters, released 05.09.2015:
498 RRV, MoE = +/-4.1








Margin: Trump +18.9


250 Likely GOP millenials (18-34), MoE = +/-6.3


Trump 25
undecided 18
Bush 9
Carson 8
Cruz 8
Walker 7
Walker 5
all others 3 or less

Margin: Trump +16 (millenials only)

Emerson College Poll, released 09.09.2015:
955 LV, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 409 RLV


Trump 34
Carson 20
Bush 12
Rubio 8
Cruz 6
Walker 6
Huckabee 4
Kasich 4
Fiorina 3


all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +14



CNN/ORC, released 10.09.2015:
474 RRV (+IRLV), MoE =4.5





Margin: Trump +13


Morning Consult, released 10.09.2015:
2,008 RRV, MoE = +/-2.0


Trump 31
Carson 18
Bush 9
undecided 9
Cruz 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 4
Rubio 4
Fiorina 3
Perry 3
all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +13

Ipsos/Reuters, released 11.09.2015:
Overall, 1,457 Adults, MoE = +/-2.9
of them, 469 RRV


Trump 35
Carson 12
Bush 8
wouldn't vote 8
Cruz 6
Walker 6
Huckabee 5
Rubio 4
Paul 3
Kasich 3
Christie 3
all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +23


ABC/WAPO, released 13.09.2015:
overall, 821 RV, MoE = +/-8.5
of them, 399 RRV, MoE = +/-5.5

Trump 33
Carson 20
Bush 8
Cruz 7
Rubio 7
Paul 5
Kasich 3
Huckabee 3
Fiorina 2
Walker 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +13


CBS/NYT, released 15.09.2015:
1,021 RV, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 376 RRV, MoE = +/-6.0



Margin: Trump +4

IPSOS/Reuters, released 15,09,2015:
536 RRV, MoE = unknown, likely +/-5.1


Margin: Trump +15

GOP nomination - State Polling

Iowa:

Loras College, released 01.09.2015:
1,004 RLV, MoE = +/-3.1





Margin: Trump +6.4


Monmouth Univ, released 03.09.2015:
1,009 Adults, MoE = +/-5.1


Trump 30
Carson 18
undecided 9
Bush 8
Cruz 8
Rubio 5
Huckabee 4
Fiorina 4
Walker 3
Christie 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +12

Hypothetical 2-ways:

Trump 36 / Carson 55, Carson +19
Trump 48 / Cruz 41, Trump +7
Trump 50 /  Fiorina 37, Trump +13
Trump 52 / Rubio 38, Trump +14
Trump 53 / Walker 38, Trump +15
Trump 56 / Bush 37, Trump +19
Trump 63 / Christie 30, Trump +33
Trump 62 / Kasich 29, Trump +33










Marist, released 06.09.2015:
Overall, 1,129 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
Among them, 390 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0




Margin: Trump +7 (+5)

Quinnipiac, released 11.09.2015:
1,038 RLV, MoE = +/-3.0

Trump 27
Carson 21
Cruz  9
Bush 6
Fiorina 5
Kasich 5
Rubio 5
Paul 4
Huckabee 4
Walker 3
all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +6

CBS NEWS (Battleground Tracker Poll), released 13.09.2015:
1,670 RV, MoE = +/-4.4



Margin: Trump +4

New Hampshire:

Marist, released 06.09.2015:
Overall, 1,129 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
Among them, 390 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0





Margin: Trump +17 (+7)


CBS NEWS (Battleground Tracker Poll), released 13.09.2015:
1,670 RV, MoE = +/-4.4



Margin: Trump +28


Monmouth University, released 14.09.2015:
415 RLV, MoE = +/-4.5

Trump 28
Carson 17
Kasich 11
Cruz 8
Bush 7
Fiorina 7
undecided 7
Paul 4
Rubio 4
Christie 2
Walker 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +11




Alabama:

Gravis (R), released 03.09.2015:
1,616 RV, MoE = +/-2.0






Margin: Trump +21.3


Florida:

Opinion Savvy/ FOX35, released 03.09.2015:
498 RLV, MoE = +/-4.3


Trump 29
Carson 25
Bush 19
Rubio 6
Fiorina 5
undecided 4
Kasich 3
all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +4


Gravis Marketing (R) / OAN, released 15.09.2015:
1,584 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 891 RRV, MoE = +/-3.0



Margin: Trump +11.2, Rubio + 20  (hypothetical 2-man race against Bush)


PPP (D), released 15.09.2015:
814 RV, MoE = +/-3.4
of them, 377 RRV, MoE = +/-5.1

Trump 28
Carson 17
Bush 13
Rubio 10
Cruz 9
Fiorina 7
Kasich 5
Huckabee 3
Christie 2
Walker 2
Jindal 1
Santorum 1
Paul + all others 0

Margin: Trump +11



Georgia:

Opinion Savvy/ FOX35, released 03.09.2015:
664 RLV, MoE = +/-3.8

Trump 34.2
Carson 24.8
Bush 10.9
Cruz 6.3
Huckabee 5.1
Fiorina 4.5
Kasich 2.5
Rubio 2.1
Christie 2.0
Walker 1.9
Someone else 1.8
all others 1 or less


Margin: Trump +7.4

South Carolina:

PPP (D), released 09.09.2015:
764 RRV, MoE = +/-3.6

Trump 37
Carson 21
Bush 6
Cruz 6
Fiorina 4
Kasich 4
Rubio 4
Huckabee 3
Paul 3
Walker 3
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less


Margin: Trump +16

Note: in this poll, 80% of SC RRV want Lindsey Graham (R-SC) to drop out of the race.

CBS NEWS (Battleground Tracker Poll), released 13.09.2015:
1,670 RV, MoE = +/-4.4



Margin: Trump +15



California:

USC Dornsife, conducted by Greenburg-Quinlan-Rosner, released 13.09.2015:
Poll overall: 1,500 RV, MoE = +/-2.8
also: CROSSTABS

Trump 24
Carson 18
Bush 6
Cruz 6
Rubio 5
Fiorina 5
All others 3 or less


Margin: Trump +6

In a four way race:

Trump 27
Carson 25
Rubio 13
Bush 11

Margin: Trump +2

Two way: Trump vs. Bush:

Trump 47
Bush 32

Margin: Trump +15

Two way: Trump vs. Carson:

Trump 32
Carson 43

Margin: Carson +11



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